Will the copycat season come again? Deciphering the belated bull market

Author｜A Aldokali

Compilation｜Plain language blockchain

For months, crypto asset traders have been anxiously refreshing their price charts, looking forward to the arrival of the "copy season", when altcoins will soar sharply. However, despite bullish forecasts and brief gains, the copycat season has not yet appeared.

Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, making altcoin enthusiasts wonder: Why is the copycat season late? Is there still a copycat season?

01. Bitcoin’s iron-fisted control: dominance and institutional adoption

Bitcoin’s dominance—its proportion of the total market capitalization of the crypto market—has been hovering around 60% between 2024 and 2025, a level not seen since the 2017 bull market. This dominance reflects the market's preference for Bitcoin, due to its stability and widespread institutional adoption.

• Institutional attention: Bitcoin ETFs approved in late 2023 and early 2024 attracted billions of dollars of capital to flow into BTC, making it a "safe-haven asset" in the crypto market. Big institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity have preferred Bitcoin, neglecting altcoins.
• Half effect: The 2024 Bitcoin halving event reinforces its scarcity narrative and attracts funds that could have flowed into higher risk altcoins.

As analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out, “altcoins usually start to rise after Bitcoin completes a parabolic rise.” As BTC continues to hit new highs, there is no reason for investors to turn to altcoins.

02. Macroeconomic headwind: Fed's strict control on liquidity

The Fed's monetary policy has always been an invisible killer of copycat season hope. Unlike the bull market in 2020-2021 (driven by near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing), 2024-2025 is marked by quantitative tightening (QT) and high interest rates.

• Liquidity tightening: Quantitative tightening drains liquidity in the financial market and reduces risk appetite. Altcoins, as speculative assets, rely on excess capital and have no liquidity, they can only stagnate.
• Delay in interest rate cuts: Despite market rumors that the Fed may turn to easing, the rate cut is still far away. Until the cost of borrowing is reduced, institutional and retail investors are reluctant to take risks on altcoins.

This macroeconomic background is in sharp contrast to the prevalence of liquidity in the altcoin season, when Meme and DeFi tokens soared sharply.

03. Oversupply of altcoins: Too many currencies and insufficient demand

The crypto market is filled with over 15,000 altcoins, but liquidity is not keeping up. New projects are being launched every day, but the total capital pool remains dispersed, resulting in the dilution of potential returns.

• Capital dispersion: More tokens compete for the same liquidity, and even projects with potential are difficult to gain attention.
• Venture capital is cautious: venture capital for crypto projects has dropped from $29.4 billion in 2022 to $7.1 billion in 2024, and altcoins development funds are severely short of funds.

This oversupply creates a "crowded market" that only tokens with outstanding practicality or virality can stand out - a far cry from the ICO boom in 2017 or the NFT fanatic in 2021.

04. Retail investors are absent

The altcoin season is usually driven by retail investors' FOMO (fear of missing out). However, retail investor participation in 2025 has significantly weakened compared with the past cycle.

• Social sentiment is down: metrics tracking crypto-related social media activity show that the market lacks the craze during the Dogecoin or Shiba Inu coin boom in 2021.
• Caution: Retail investors who were hit by the 2022 market crash are now more inclined to bitcoin than altcoins. As one trader said: "When BTC rose 150% this year, why buy Meme?"

Without the enthusiasm of retail investors, altcoins lack fuel to ignite the continued rise.

05. Regulatory uncertainty: Double-edged sword

Regulatory clarity is crucial to altcoins, especially those classified as securities. Even though the Trump administration's pro-crypto stance has ignited optimism, progress has remained slow.

• ETF delay: Altcoin ETFs targeting Solana, XRP and Dogecoin are still in regulatory dilemma. Analysts believe they have a 65-90% chance of approval, but the timeline is unclear.
• DeFi and Stablecoin Review: Misregulation of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and stablecoins has curbed innovation and put institutional funds on the horizon.

Uncertainty will continue until regulators approve altcoin ETFs or clarify rules.

06. Historical model: Patience is a virtue

The crypto market is cyclical, and the altcoin quarter usually occurs in the last year of the four-year Bitcoin cycle. Although 2025 is considered the next copycat season, the delay is not without precedent.

• 2017 vs. 2021: Both copycat seasons occurred after Bitcoin hit an all-time high and entered consolidation. If BTC stabilizes above $100,000, capital may eventually flow into altcoins.
• ETH/BTC ratio: Ethereum’s poor performance against Bitcoin indicates that the copycat season has not yet begun. Historically, Ethereum has usually led the altcoins to rise, but its ratio to BTC is still close to its multi-year low.

07. Summary

The copycat season has not disappeared, it is just waiting for the right conditions. Bitcoin’s dominance, macroeconomic pressures and regulatory obstacles temporarily pressed the pause button for the altcoin fanatic. However, history shows that once BTC enters a stationary period and liquidity returns, altcoins will usher in their moment.

Currently, it is key to invest patiently and selectively in projects with strong fundamentals, such as artificial intelligence, DeFi or Layer-2 solutions. As the crypto circle proverb says, “Time in the market is better than trying to seize the opportunity.”

Stay tuned, act cautiously, and keep an eye on Bitcoin dominance. The clock of the copycat season is ticking – it’s just a matter of time, not whether it will happen.