Will SBF be pardoned by the President and released from prison early?

BeInCrypto reported earlier that former FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was in the spotlight due to his early release from prison.

The tweets from Musk and others indicate that this possibility is very high .

So what are the chances that the FTX founder is leaving prison less than a year after his conviction?

In 2020, at the peak of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried donated $5.2 million to a pro-Biden super PAC. He is the second-largest individual donor to the Democratic Party after Michael Bloomberg.

Historically, political donors and their affiliates have had a huge advantage in their own right when it comes to convictions and pardons.

Take Marc Rich as an example. This "notorious" oil trader evaded at least US$50 million in taxes as early as 2021. However, Rich was pardoned on the last day of Clinton's term.

The pardon was controversial because Rich's ex-wife, Denise, was a major donor to the Democratic Party. She made substantial donations to Clinton's presidential library and the Democratic National Committee.

Likewise, Paul Pogue is another convicted tax fraudster who was pardoned by Trump in 2020 .

According to reports, this is because Pogue’s family donated more than $200,000 to Trump’s campaign.

Prediction market expert Kalshi posted on X: "Sam Bankman-Fried used millions of stolen customer funds to fund political activities."

"SBF donates almost all of its money to Democrats (98%), making it the second-largest donor to the Democratic Party, and there is now a 12% chance that Biden will pardon him."

Controversy over Sam Bankman-Fried 's potential pardon by Biden is also normal, given the historical case that political donors are more likely to receive clemency .

In addition, Biden pardoned Michael Conahan last week.

Conahan was sentenced to 17 years in prison in a child-for-money scandal. He accepted bribes from private juvenile detention centers in exchange for sending children to them, often for minor crimes.

It's concrete proof that Biden may not shy away from pardoning major criminals.

One of the most controversial points in Bankman-Fried 's trial was the government's omission of campaign finance-related charges against him .

Initially, Bankman-Fried faced eight criminal charges, including conspiracy to defraud the United States and violating campaign finance laws.

However, this campaign finance charge was dropped in July 2023.

Bankman-Fried's charges were initially dropped due to a treaty obligation in the Bahamas. Essentially, the Bahamian government does not favor the inclusion of this particular allegation in an extradition request.

However, prosecutors said they would hold separate trials on those charges.

The second trial dealt with dropped campaign finance charges, as well as charges related to bribery and operating an unlicensed money transfer business.

However, in December 2023, the prosecution announced that it would not hold a second trial because the evidence in the second trial would largely repeat what had been presented in the first trial.

Earlier this year, Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison for multiple wire fraud and other charges.

However, many believed the sentence was too lenient given the scale and impact of his crimes.

The collapse of FTX caused customers and creditors to lose more than 16 billion U.S. dollars, and the cold winter of Crypto assets also caused the market to lose more than 100 billion U.S. dollars . Therefore, as one of the largest financial scandals in U.S. history, many viewed the sentencing as lenient.

Prominent attorney Richard W. Painter wrote: "Sam Bankman-Fried and his associates hope to receive a pardon or reduced sentence in exchange for campaign contributions they stole from FTX investors. Any president who agrees to do so should be impeached for bribery." "

Prosecutors initially asked for a 50-year sentence, arguing that Sam Bankman-Fried's crimes were "historic" in scope and severity.

Prosecutors highlighted the massive financial losses suffered by FTX customers and the erosion of public trust in the crypto asset market.

In addition, Caroline Ellison, who actively collected client funds from FTX and Bankman-Friend, was only sentenced to 2 years in prison for cooperating with prosecutors .

Most surprisingly, Gary Wang, the author of the backdoor code who provided Alameda with unlimited credit, avoided jail entirely.

Given these facts, and the fact that critics believe the sentence is too lenient, the crypto asset industry is clearly anticipating that Sam Bankman-Fried may be granted leniency.

It is important to note, however, that the link between donations and pardons is not always consistent .

The president may grant pardons for other reasons, and it is difficult to clearly prove that donations were the sole or primary motivating factor.

But what is certain is that there are bound to be moral concerns as there are cases of wealthy people using political donations to escape legal disputes.