Why is MicroStrategy gambled on Bitcoin? In-depth analysis of its capital operation and risk management

Source: WEB3 101

Compiled by: Lyric, ChainCatcher

Editor 's note: In this interview, Silicon Valley 101 podcast manager Hongjun Jane, researcher Liu Yiming, guests Zheng Di, and Liu Feng mainly focused on: Is micro-strategy facing liquidation risks? How do you view the Bitcoin investment strategy of micro-strategy, is it worth imitating? How do you view the US intends to siphon global liquidity with a US dollar stablecoin? Discuss the topics. ChainCatcher has compiled the text, hoping to inspire readers.

There may be a slight error in audio transcription. Listen to the full podcast:

WEB3 101:

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1. How do you view the stock of MicroStrategy?

Zheng Di’s view: Micro-strategy is essentially speculative stocks, and its selling point is not the stock value, but volatility. The company used stocks and bonds to finance in the previous cycle, and the cash flow of the software business was still acceptable, supporting bond interest payments. Due to poor cash flow this time, a large number of convertible bonds were issued, with extremely low interest rates. With the help of the special mechanism of the US stock market, ATM, additional stock issuance, there is no need to find specific investors, and it is sold directly at market prices in the secondary market. The operation logic of the capital market is: low premium when leverage is low, and buying Bitcoin with leverage by borrowing debts will attract two types of investors. One is those who cannot buy Bitcoin ETFs, and the other is hedge funds that pursue volatility and expect to obtain greater gains. After leverage, the company's valuation premium rose in the bull market of Bitcoin, with the highest reaching 300% in the previous bull market and exceeding 100% in this round. However, as the market discovered that it issued a large number of additional shares, the stock price gradually fell, operating inversely with the currency price, narrowing the premium and leverage ratio declined.

2. What method does micro-strategy use to raise funds? What is the

operating mechanism behind it?

Zheng Di’s view: Micro-strategy uses comprehensive stocks and bonds to finance. In the last cycle, it mainly relied on bond issuance and cash reserves, and also issued some ordinary bonds and convertible bonds. At that time, its software business had good cash flow and was enough to pay interest on bonds. Analysts have valued its software business $500 million to $1 billion, and its valuation in the last cycle was about $1.2 billion. Micro-strategy uses its own cash flow to pay interest on bonds.

However, the situation in this cycle has changed drastically, with poor cash flow or even negative, and cash reserves exhausted. Therefore, this round will no longer issue ordinary bonds, but will issue large quantities of convertible bonds, with extremely low interest rates on convertible bonds. At the same time, micro-strategy uses ATM (At-The-Market) mechanism to sell stocks in large quantities. The U.S. stock market allows listed companies to issue additional shares directly in the secondary market after approval, and sell them at market prices, with investment banks or brokers assisting in the sales. At the end of October last year, MicroStrategies was allowed to issue $21 billion in new shares, with its 420 plan including $21 billion in bonds (mainly convertible bonds and perpetual preferred shares) and $21 billion in stock (mainly ATMs).

The capital market operation logic of micro-strategy is: when leverage is low, the premium is relatively low, because investors are interested in leveraging the increase in leverage for micro-strategy stocks. Before a bull market, you have to try your best to increase leverage, that is, to borrow money to buy Bitcoin. After leverage, if Bitcoin goes bullish, its valuation premium will rise. The premium in the last bull market was as high as 300%, and the premium in this round was as high as 100%. The premium rises because of two types of investors: investors who cannot buy ETFs and investors who pursue volatility, especially hedge funds. But when the leverage ratio reaches a certain level, debt sustainability becomes a problem, and the market will worry about its ability to continue issuing bonds.

This round of micro-strategy uses ATM smartly. When the Bitcoin upward cycle is up, stocks are easy to sell, and a large number of stocks can be sold instantly and funds can be used to buy Bitcoin. But this will cause the stock price to gradually fall, run in reverse with the currency price, the premium will drop, and the leverage will decrease.

3. Why are micro-strategy stocks popular? What is its selling point?

Zheng Di’s view: First of all, although Bitcoin ETFs have been approved, many institutions and individuals are still unable to purchase them. For example, domestic RMB funds cannot purchase Bitcoin ETFs through total income swaps (TRS), but can purchase stocks such as micro-strategy. The same is true for Korean pension and other institutions. Therefore, micro-strategy provides an indirect way for investors who cannot directly purchase Bitcoin ETFs, which is one of the reasons for its premium formation.

Secondly, another major selling point of micro-strategy lies in its leverage effect. Its stock price has risen far more than Bitcoin itself, attracting investors who are pursuing higher returns. Michael J. Saylor notes that even if investors can buy Bitcoin ETFs, they should choose micro-strategy because MicroStrategy is essentially the equivalent of an asset with an implicit option. The higher its volatility, the higher the value of the implicit options. In the U.S. stock market, it is difficult to find a high liquidity and volatility land like MicroStrategy. Therefore, it is actually considered a high-quality Bitcoin call option.

The success of micro-strategy also lies in its strong financing capabilities. Companies are able to continuously raise funds and buy Bitcoins. This model is not a simple Bitcoin investment, but relies on strong financing capabilities, which stem from the sales capabilities of their leaders. Michael J. Saylor, as a company leader, was able to spread his ideas like a missionary and sell stocks. This unique business model and leadership make micro-strategy difficult to imitate globally and is at the heart of its unique strengths.

4. Is the micro-strategy facing the risk of liquidation?

Liu Feng’s view: MicroStrategies began to buy Bitcoin in 2020, and at that time, it used hundreds of millions of dollars to buy it with free funds from commercial software business. In February 2021, the company issued a $1 billion zero-interest convertible bond with a term of six years, and continued to purchase Bitcoin with this amount of funds. The market had entered a bull market at that time, and this move by micro-strategy caused controversy, but the company still took bold action. By the end of 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell from $70,000 to less than $20,000, and the company was under tremendous pressure. Nevertheless, the fact that companies purchase low-priced Bitcoin by issuing stock financing shows that they have great confidence in Bitcoin.

The liquidation risk of micro-strategy depends mainly on its debt structure and Bitcoin price. The company's current rigid debt maturity is in 2028 and 2029, with $1 billion and $3 billion in debt respectively. As long as the company can repay these two debts, there will be no liquidation problem. Despite the high volatility of Bitcoin’s price, companies still have time to deal with it given their cyclical nature. Even if the price of Bitcoin falls below $60,000 or even lower in the future, the company still has a chance to recover in the next bull market. Therefore, at present, the debt risk of micro-strategy is not high, and its debt maturity is relatively long, providing the company with room for dynamic adjustment.

A decline in the stock price of a micro-strategy may affect its ability to finance, but traders will not price the stock based solely on net assets. If the market suddenly finds that the price of Bitcoin is extremely low when paying off debts in 2028 and 2029, it may have a significant impact on the stock price. However, at present, the sharp decline in Bitcoin price will not have a fundamental impact on the company's operating model. Creditors usually don't ask for liquidation due to falling Bitcoin prices, as this can lead to losses on both sides.

Zheng Di’s view: In the last round of bear market, the problems faced by micro-strategy were more serious than they are now. At that time, the company’s net assets were negative and the market was extremely panicked. However, the initiation of a liquidation procedure is not an easy task, and a negative net asset is not a rigid condition. The company's rigid debts expire long ago, and no creditor can force the company to liquidate immediately. Additionally, Michael J. Saylor holds nearly 48% of the company's voting rights, making it difficult to pass any liquidation proposal. Although shareholders may have the incentive to propose liquidation in some cases, Saylor's voting advantage makes this unlikely.

The market's confidence in micro-strategy also comes from the trend of Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Although some U.S. states have rejected Bitcoin reserve proposals, global sovereign funds have begun to enter the Bitcoin market. For example, Abu Dhabi bought hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin ETFs. This trend has just begun, and more institutions and sovereign funds may use Bitcoin as a reserve asset in the future. Therefore, micro-strategy will not face the risk of being forced to liquidate or be forced to sell Bitcoin, and its main debt is due far away, and the market will still have confidence in its future.

5. How do you view the strategies of micro-strategy and are they worth

imitating?

Zheng Di’s view: The strategies of micro-strategy are unique and difficult to replicate. Although Japan's MetaPlanet and some Hong Kong stock companies have tried to imitate, none of them has reached the premium level of micro-strategy, and many are even in a discounted state. One of the main reasons is that MicroStrategy is located in the US stock market and enjoys the largest liquidity in the world, which allows its premium to be pushed up by the market. In contrast, both the Japanese stock market and the Hong Kong stock market are regional markets, with limited liquidity and it is difficult to replicate such high premiums. The second most important reason is that MicroStrategy has Saylor as the company leader. He actively spreads his ideas through roadshows, radio, YouTube videos, etc., attracts a large number of investors and has a high personal brand influence. It can be said that he is an IP and a sales boss at the level of a leader. Other imitators lack such a strong influencer leader.

Compared with general marketing strategies, the strategy of micro-strategy is very unique. It does not emphasize value investment, but highlights its volatility and speculativeness. It emphasizes that even if investors can buy Bitcoin ETFs, MicroStrategy should be chosen because it is leveraged and implicit options, and the trading volume is much higher than other related markets. This strategy attracts a large number of speculators and hedge funds, rather than value investors in the traditional sense.

6. How did Michael J. Saylor go from notorious to Bitcoin leader?

Zheng Di's view: Michael J. Saylor's market image has not been good in the past 20 years. In 2001, he became notorious due to the accounting scandal, and micro-strategy was also in trouble. However, by vigorously marketing his Bitcoin career, he successfully transformed his image and became a leader in the Bitcoin field.

Saylor has become one of the major buyers in the market through micro-strategy, and is even more influential than Bitcoin ETFs. Micro-strategy strategy that only buys but not sells makes it occupy an important position in the Bitcoin market. Saylor also said that after his death he would destroy his personal Bitcoin private keys, an act seen as a contribution to the Bitcoin industry, although his personal Bitcoin was purchased at an average price of about $10,000 in the previous cycle.

In terms of regulation, the Bitcoin held by MicroStrategies is mainly custodianized in Fidelity Investment Group and Coinbase, which meets the regulatory requirements of listed companies and ensures compliance. Before the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs, Saylor had already built MicroStrategy into an ETF-like product, establishing its industry position. He actively promoted the value of Bitcoin, accepted interviews everywhere, promoted the concept of hoarding Bitcoin, and made important contributions to the Bitcoin bull market and industry development.

Despite the controversy in the past, his contribution to the Bitcoin space cannot be ignored. He once persuaded Musk to invest Tesla and SpaceX's cash in Bitcoin, and Tesla eventually bought $1.5 billion in Bitcoin. In addition, Saylor also met with the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) crypto action team to discuss Bitcoin’s position in the U.S. national reserves, showing his influence at the policy level. Although he is known as the biggest bitcoin, recent talk outlines show that he is also open to cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin.

7. What is Michael J. Saylor 's future plan?

Zheng Di's view: Michael J. Saylor not only focuses on Bitcoin, he also advocates that the United States should become the global leader of the digital economy. He believes that almost everything in the future can be put on the chain and tokenized, and assets in many fields such as culture and entertainment can be converted into real-world assets (RWA) and put on the chain. This market has huge potential, reaching millions of dollars in size. To achieve this goal, Saylor argues that the United States should lower the threshold for the on-chain and RWA tokenization to promote the development of related markets, so that the United States can occupy a global leadership position in the next stage of the digital economy.

It can be seen from Saylor's remarks that his vision has surpassed Bitcoin itself and began to focus on the widespread application of the entire blockchain technology and its far-reaching impact on the global economic landscape. He stressed that the United States should actively promote the development of blockchain technology, use its advantages to recreate an on-chain version of the US stock market or Nasdaq, and further consolidate the United States' dominance in the global economy by siphoning global liquidity on-chain.

8. At what time will Bitcoin leader Michael J. Saylor buy BTC ?

Zheng Di’s view: Michael J. Saylor’s strategy is to make profits through premium arbitrage. He bought Bitcoin by selling micro-strategy stocks and used the stock's high premium to achieve arbitrage. The key to this strategy is that only Saylor himself knows when he will sell stocks on a large scale, so he is the biggest potential "short" of micro-strategy. Other investors who want to short MicroStrategy premium should wait for the micro-strategy action before following, otherwise they may suffer losses.

Saylor usually sells shares when the premium exceeds 100%, and uses the funds earned to buy Bitcoin. While it looks like he may have bought when the price of Bitcoin is higher, he also sells when the price of the stock is higher. Therefore, he does not buy at the high point, but sells stocks at the high point to obtain funds. Judging from the degree of asset enrichment, Saylor has earned a lot of money for the company. For example, when the premium reaches 150%, he gets funds by selling the stock, while the current premium may be less than 50%, which means he has earned the spread at the premium high.

Liu Feng’s view: Saylor’s business model is to sell high-premium assets and buy undervalued assets. He obtains funds through various means, including issuing bonds, selling stocks or collateralizing Bitcoin. He needs to compare the cost of obtaining funds with the price of buying Bitcoin to determine which method is the best. Although he may buy when the price of Bitcoin is high, he may increase the value of the asset by selling assets that are triple-worthy to buy Bitcoins, thus achieving the value of the asset.

9. How do you view the relationship between the recent decline in

Bitcoin price and micro-strategy?

Zheng Di’s view: In mid-November last year, I found that the stock trend of MicroStrategy was abnormal because the company obtained a US$42 billion authorization and began to issue additional stock financing through the ATM mechanism. This strategy was used by Michael J. Saylor to maintain a high premium of stocks and sell stocks in large quantities to cash out at prices higher than the asset value. From November to December, the company sold approximately $15 billion in stock, equivalent to a net sale of $300 million per trading day. This large-scale stock sale makes it difficult for the market to take over and the stock price will inevitably fall. Despite the rise in Bitcoin prices, MicroStrategy's stock price has fallen because the company's turn to finance by selling stocks rather than issuing bonds, resulting in a decline in its valuation premium and its stock price is difficult to support.

From another perspective, the reason for the sharp rise in Bitcoin price is that MicroStrategies net purchases of $300 million in Bitcoin every day, and this large-scale purchase has had a significant impact on the market. However, by January, although micro-strategy continued to buy Bitcoin, its buying speed slowed significantly. Starting from January 4, the company entered a silent period of financial reports and was unable to continue to make large-scale purchases. On February 4, after the company released its financial report, it clearly stated that it would reduce the intensity of financing through stocks and turn to bond financing. The reason for this shift is that after two months of stock sale and Bitcoin purchases, MicroStrategy's valuation premium dropped sharply, and its leverage ratio also dropped to 15%, well below 20% to 30% of its long-term target. Therefore, companies need to increase leverage by issuing bonds.

On February 5, after the company returned to the market, it began to raise funds through bond issuance, which means that its buying speed will slow down. Unlike additional issuance of shares through ATMs, bond issuance financing requires more time to be arranged and executed. This leads to the market expectation that the buying speed of micro-strategy will slow down, which will negatively affect the price of Bitcoin. The shift to bond financing may be a positive signal for the company's share price, but it is a negative factor for Bitcoin price, as one of the largest marginal buyers in the market has slowed down, resulting in a restriction on the upside of Bitcoin.

10. How do you view the US intends to siphon global liquidity with a US

dollar stablecoin?

Zheng Di’s view: The United States is trying to siphon global liquidity through the US dollar stablecoin, with the goal of recreating a market similar to US stocks or Nasdaq on the chain. South Korean regulators have expressed concerns about the dollar stablecoin, believing its massive promotion is essentially lending money to the U.S. government. The funds received by the dollar stablecoin are usually used to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds. At present, the scale of the US dollar stablecoin has reached US$200 billion, which is relatively small, but has made USDT the 18th largest holder of US Treasury bonds. If the scale expands to trillions of dollars in the future, it will have a huge impact on the US Treasury market, fill the funding gap and reduce financing costs.

The promotion of US dollar stablecoins has enabled the global lending of money to the US government in disguise, reducing the United States' dependence on traditional channels for financing. If the Treasury Secretary is no longer required to frequently lobby other countries for purchasing US Treasury bonds. This is also the reason why the EU promotes euro stablecoins. The South Korean government also has clear understanding and concerns about the US dollar stablecoin.

From the perspective of capital control, traditional means such as restricting securities firms from opening accounts can effectively control capital outflows. However, in the on-chain market, especially the on-chain US stock market dominated by the United States, it is extremely difficult to control capital. Individuals can freely trade U.S. assets through their wallets, which is difficult to regulate. The popularity of self-custodial wallets makes capital controls almost impossible, and funds can easily flow across borders.

In conjunction with the Trump administration's policy of undermining global coordination and beggar neighbors, it welcomes the arrival of the on-chain economic era. If the United States leads the on-chain economy and digital economy era, it will siphon global liquidity and consolidate its financial hegemony, posing a challenge to financial stability and capital controls in other countries.

11. What might the future financial landscape look like?

Zheng Di’s view: From the perspective of history and current situation, the probability of a global cyberspace space appearing when companies or giants are not yet strong enough to ignore sovereign governments. Despite the strength of American technology companies, this trend has not yet been formed. For example, although Musk has strong resource control, he still needs to be combined with the establishment to achieve technological accelerationism. Therefore, the importance of sovereign government remains significant, especially the ownership of U.S. leadership.

The development of cyberspace depends on the support of a strong country. If supported by powerful countries such as the United States, cyberspace may flourish; if there is no support from major countries, its development will be limited. At present, the United States is in a period of chaos and tends to use cyberspace to siphon global liquidity. There have been historically proposals for the G8 to join forces to kill Bitcoin, but this proposal is difficult to achieve in the face of intensifying global conflicts and lack of international coordination. On the contrary, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have become new media to bypass the traditional financial system in the context of intensifying confrontation. The recognition of Bitcoin by the United States and Russia shows that as the confrontation intensifies, all parties need new financial media.

The United States wants to dominate the new financial system, and other countries should compete for leadership rather than starting a new foundation. It is extremely difficult to establish a new global consensus system, and private support is difficult to guarantee.

Liu Feng's view: The concept of network states has been popular for two years and was proposed by Balaji Srinivasan, who was the CTO of Coinbase. This concept can be seen as an upgraded version of anarchism, advocating that large Internet companies combine new technologies may give birth to a new national form based on the Internet. This theory is based on technological advances and the rise of cryptocurrencies, especially stablecoins, giving more community-led and technology-led financial applications. In the past few years, many groups have tried to establish non-sovereign territory.

However, the context of the concept of cryptocurrency and network state is that it was once excluded by governments and regulators in the United States. But after the new U.S. government came to power, the regulatory and policy frameworks changed dramatically, from being excluded to being embraced. This reflects the compromise between ideals and reality: cryptocurrencies that were originally anti-establishment and rebellious of sovereign states now hope to develop with the help of US policies.

12. What are the secrets in the gold market?

Zheng Di’s view: One of them is part of its reserve system. The gold bought and sold by many investors is not physical gold, but paper gold. In the London gold market, about 90% of accounts adopt non-divided storage, and only 10% use partial storage. Undivided storage means that investors' gold is mixed with other people's gold, with low management fees, but there is moral risk because it is impossible to monitor exactly whether gold really exists. This partial reserve system is more common in traditional financial markets, but in the field of cryptocurrency, due to the transparency of blockchain technology, this operation is more difficult.

Therefore, fluctuations in gold prices are also affected by tacit understanding between central banks and governments of various countries. The price of gold cannot rise too high, otherwise it will weaken trust in the global fiat currency system and lead to funds being withdrawn from the fiat currency system. Therefore, gold prices need to be balanced at some point, allowing rises, but not too rapid. This balance is partly due to the gold leasing and swap operations of custodians and central banks, which do not require public reporting, making it difficult to verify the true situation of gold reserves.

During liquidity crises, gold prices usually fall sharply. For example, at the end of February 2020, gold prices suddenly fell 7% when they should have risen, indicating that a large amount of gold is being lent and sold in the market. A similar situation also occurred after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in November 2008, when gold rental rates rose abnormally to 2.5%, far higher than the normal level of 0.1%. This shows that a large amount of gold was lent out by the central bank and sold in the market, causing a price plunge. No one knows whether the loaned gold is returned. The global gold reporting system only reports nominal reserves, lacks transparency, and it is almost impossible to verify that all gold reserve warehouses are.

13. How to choose between Bitcoin and gold?

Zheng Di’s view: From the perspective of delivery, gold delivery is complicated and inconvenient. For example, the delivery of gold from the UK to France is not direct transportation, but is completed through internal transfers of the Federal Reserve vault in New York. This is in sharp contrast to Bitcoin, which can be delivered instantly on the chain, with higher traceability, transparency and payment, and is a better "digital gold".

It is difficult to identify the authenticity of gold, and adulteration is difficult to identify with the naked eye, and Bitcoin does not have this problem. As long as Bitcoin can be brought to the wallet or on the chain, it must be real. In addition, gold is scarce on Earth, but not in the solar system, such as the asteroid belt. If humans immigrate to Mars in the future, Mars can develop heavy industries with the help of asteroid belt resources, which will change the scarcity of gold.

Although Bitcoin is superior to gold in many aspects, it also faces quantum computing risks. Quantum computers that can break through existing encryption algorithms may appear in the next 10 to 15 years. Bitcoin upgrades to anti-quantum algorithms require decisions from the miners' conference, but miners may delay the upgrade time due to sunk costs and interest groups obstruction, which is a unique risk to Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin is still better than gold in the short term.

During the liquidity crisis, the real hedging tools are short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and yen, not gold or Bitcoin. The yen is usually borrowed in large quantities and needs to be repaid in crisis, so the price rises. Short-term U.S. Treasury bonds will also rise during crisis, such as the one-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose to 0.8% during the epidemic. In contrast, gold and Bitcoin are often sold out during liquidity crises because they are actually ATMs.

14. How do you view the large amount of assets that imitate micro-strategy hoarding non-bitcoin?

Liu Feng’s view: The problem can be broken down into two parts: one is whether other companies may use micro-strategy strategies to purchase cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin; the other is why there are no companies similar to micro-strategy in the gold field. The recent rush of shipping in the gold market has been due to rumors that Trump may impose gold import taxes, resulting in delays in delivery in the London gold market, highlighting the characteristics of its partial reserve system. Historically, the Hunt brothers hoarded silver, and even the trading volume at that time accounted for about 60% of the entire silver market. This move triggered the intervention of the US government and gave birth to a large-scale position reporting mechanism. If someone tries to hoard gold and silver to copy the micro-strategy model, it may be rectified by the government. Even if someone has indeed successfully hoarded most of the market's trading volume, central banks around the world hold 33,000 tons of gold reserves and can lend them out at any time to calm market panic. The cryptocurrency market is currently relatively transparent, and the traditional financial system has small interests in it, not reaching the scale of the gold market. If the price of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies rises sharply until it is comparable to the entire volume of gold, the traditional financial system may adopt operations similar to the gold market, such as creating fake Bitcoin or paper Bitcoin to suppress the price.

Zheng Di’s view: Although other cryptocurrencies may be hoarded in large quantities, it is difficult to achieve a broad consensus on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is regarded as digital gold and does not need to consider too much cash flow issues. Other cryptocurrencies need to consider factors such as usage scenarios, handling fees and revenue. For example, Ethereum is facing Solana's competition and the current meme market, and its growth is limited. The success of micro-strategy relies on the strong consensus of Bitcoin, which is difficult for other cryptocurrencies to replicate. If later generations want to imitate micro-strategy, they need to choose the correct target, which needs to have continuous growth potential. The consensus on Bitcoin has been formed, and other cryptocurrencies are difficult to surpass. Of course, there are also successful examples. For example, Litecoin, which shouted the slogan "Bitkin Lite Silver", has the most important point of having today's status is that Litecoin defines itself as a follower. A method of imitating micro-strategy can be successful to a certain extent, but it is difficult to reach its height.

15. How to use AI tools to do industry research?

Zheng Di’s view: There are many research tools now, and it is recommended that you use more AI tools such as GPT, Grok, and Deeppseek. Many studies do not require in-depth research. I often complete them on my mobile phone. In the past, I had to use a computer to study them specifically. Because I move often, I force myself to learn new tools so that I can conduct research anytime, anywhere. For example, GPT can be used to draw and provide insights, and can be found in big models such as how micro-strategy hosts Bitcoin. Although it is necessary to continuously correct the data source and search across languages ​​to get the answer. In addition to large models, Polymarket is an excellent tool, but it is banned by many countries, such as Singapore and France. Polymarket opens with real money and silver, allowing people to predict the probability of events. Polymarket started a bet a week before Microsoft shareholders voted, and had bet one or two million dollars at that time. It predicted that the probability of passing the Bitcoin reserve plan was only 12%, and it continued to decline. I knew one week in advance that this plan was difficult to pass. My research method is to first use a large model to conduct preliminary research, then use its own framework to correct and train the model to greatly improve the research efficiency. Secondly, when looking at Polymarket gambling, it is important to see the changing trend of the gambling probability, not the specific value. For example, the probability of the United States passing national reserves on Polymarket continues to decline, indicating that the market is declining.