Two former FTX executives have their sentences commuted Musk: The Fed is severely overstaffed

Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance. The content covers key news of the week, mining information, project trends, technology progress and other industry trends. This article is one of the weekly news articles, giving you an overview of the major events in the blockchain industry this week.

headlines

▌Two former cryptocurrency exchange FTX executives received reduced sentences

According to the Washington Post, the sentences of two former executives of cryptocurrency exchange FTX appear to have been shortened. According to the US Federal Bureau of Prisons website, Ryan Salame began serving a seven-year sentence in October. Half, now expected to be released in March 2031. Caroline Ellison now has an expected release date of July 2026, a few months shy of her original two-year sentence. FTX filed for bankruptcy in 2022 amid questions about its financial health and its relationship with sister trading firm Alameda Research, leading to rapid withdrawals of funds by customers similar to a bank run. Authorities later accused FTX of misappropriating customer funds for personal use to repay loans owed by Alameda Research and other projects. This scandal caused FTX, once the world's third largest cryptocurrency exchange, and its founder Bankman (SBF) to encounter a shocking Waterloo. Salam, the former co-CEO of FTX's Bahamas subsidiary, pleaded guilty to running an unlicensed money transfer business and violating campaign finance laws. Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda, pleaded guilty in December 2022 to telecommunications, securities and commodities fraud and money laundering.

▌Musk: The Fed has serious overstaffing

Musk wrote on social media platform

▌US media: Some major U.S. banks plan to sue the Federal Reserve over annual stress tests

According to CNBC, several large banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over its annual bank stress tests, a person familiar with the matter revealed. The lawsuit is expected to be filed this week, possibly as early as Tuesday morning local time, the person said. The Fed's stress tests are an annual exercise that requires banks to reserve adequate buffers for bad loans and regulates the size of stock buybacks and dividends. After the market closed on Monday, the Fed announced in a statement that it planned to make adjustments to bank stress tests, but it did not detail the specific changes to the annual stress test framework. But the changes may not be enough to allay banks' concerns about onerous capital requirements. Because the Fed said: "These proposed adjustments are not intended to have a material impact on overall capital requirements." Greg Bell, CEO of the Bank Policy Institute (BPI), which represents large banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, told the Fed Bell welcomed the statement, saying in a statement: "Today's statement from the Federal Reserve is a first step toward transparency and accountability." However, Bell also hinted that further actions may be taken: "We are carefully studying this statement, and consider additional measures to ensure timely reforms that are consistent with both law and policy.”

▌Data : Only 7 of the 25 listed mining companies will achieve positive returns by the end of 2024

As of December 24, Bitcoin was up 113% in 2024. According to data from the Hash Rate Index and Google Finance, the stock prices of most listed mining companies were in a downward trend at the end of 2024, with a drop of as much as 84%. Of the 25 listed mining companies in the index, only seven achieved positive returns. As of press time, Bitdeer (BTDR) is up 167%, Cipher (CIFR) is up 33%, Hut 8 (HUT) is up 91%, Iris Energy (IREN) is up 72%, Northern Data (NB2) is up 58%, Core Scientific ( CORZQ) is up 327% and TeraWulf (WULF) is up 169%. On the other hand, Argo Blockchain (ARB) fell 84%, followed by Sphere 3D (ANY) which fell 69%, (just to name a few). Bitcoin miners’ cumulative revenue exceeds $71 billion. According to Blockchain.com, miners earned $42 million on December 22, compared with a peak of over $100 million in April.

▌Analyst : Crypto venture capital may exceed US$18 billion in 2025

According to PitchBook analyst Robert Le, venture capital funding in the crypto industry may exceed $18 billion in 2025, with multiple quarterly investments reaching $5 billion. The total amount of crypto venture capital investment in 2023 is approximately US$9 billion, and is expected to reach US$11 billion in 2024, with the average quarterly investment being approximately US$2 billion to US$2.5 billion. Although investment activity slowed this summer, it picked up after the election, and general venture capital firms are expected to refocus on the crypto space next year. Le also pointed out that the investment theme of "encryption and artificial intelligence (AI)" will continue to heat up, and encryption technology may provide innovative solutions to certain core problems during the expansion of AI, or become a new growth point.

policy

▌The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued reporting management measures for high-risk transactions such as illegal cross-border financial activities of virtual currencies.

According to news on December 27, according to the announcement of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the "Measures for the Management of Bank Foreign Exchange Risk Transaction Reports (Trial)" have been released and will come into effect from now on. The "Measures" are supporting documents of the "Measures for the Management of Banks' Foreign Exchange Business Development (Trial)" and are intended to strengthen banks' foreign exchange risk management and conduct early identification and early detection of high-risk transactions such as suspected false trade, underground banks, and illegal cross-border financial activities involving virtual currencies. Early warning and early treatment. The main contents include: clarifying the reporting responsibilities of banks on foreign exchange risk transactions, requiring the establishment of a monitoring system and submission of reports; stipulating the scope of information reporting, including activities suspected of illegal and illegal cross-border capital flows; clarifying the content of the report, such as the basic situation and planned measures ; Strengthen internal management measures, including internal control systems and data confidentiality management.

▌Russian Finance Minister: The use of digital currency for international payments represents the future trend

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday that Russian companies have started using Bitcoin and other digital currencies in international payments after legislative changes allow the use of these currencies in response to Western sanctions. This year, Russia allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade and has taken steps to legalize cryptocurrency mining, including Bitcoin. Russia is one of the leading countries in the world for Bitcoin mining. "Such transactions are already taking place. We believe that such transactions should be further expanded and developed. I believe this will be the case next year," Siluanov said, adding that the use of digital currencies for international payments represents a future trend.

▌The U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service finalize tax filing requirements for specific cryptocurrency brokers

According to market news, the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the IRS have finalized tax filing requirements (RIN 1545-BR39, TD 10021) for specific cryptocurrency brokers. The Biden administration’s progress on this regulatory regime has been delayed by the cryptocurrency industry’s resistance to tracking transactions.

▌The U.S. crypto industry calls on Congress to block new regulations for DeFi brokers

The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced new regulations on December 27, defining some decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols as brokers and requiring customer identification (KYC) obligations, triggering strong opposition from the crypto industry. This regulation is expected to affect up to 875 DeFi brokers and 2.6 million taxpayers. Legal experts criticized the rule as overstepping authority and potentially infringing on constitutional rights. Paradigm Vice President Alexander Grieve called on the new “pro- encryption Congress” to pass the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to repeal this regulation. The Blockchain Association called the rule “a last-ditch attempt to push the U.S. crypto industry overseas” and said it would take action to counter it. As previously reported, the IRS requires “DeFi brokers” to collect user transaction information.

▌ CryptoQuant founder: Trump’s Bitcoin policy depends on the economic status of the United States

Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, said President-elect Donald Trump’s Bitcoin policy may depend on the global investment community’s view of the U.S. economy and the strength of the U.S. dollar. Ju believes that when investors believe that U.S. economic hegemony is threatened, the prices of store-of-value assets such as gold and BTC surge. However, investors continue to express confidence in the U.S. economy and view the dollar as a safe haven currency. This advantageous position makes it unlikely that the Trump administration will adopt a strategic reserve of Bitcoin to protect the dollar’s ​​dominance, and could lead to the president-elect backtracking on pro-Bitcoin policies.

Blockchain application

▌World Network’s global participating users exceeded 20 million

According to an official release from World, as of December, World Network has more than 20 million global participants, of which approximately 9.5 million are verified real users, covering all continents except Antarctica. The number of new users per week reached 800,000, the number of verified users increased by 355,000, and the number of monthly active World App users exceeded 8 million, which is equivalent to a new user joining every 0.75 seconds. With the rapid development of AI technology, "Proof of Human" is becoming a key technology to deal with the online identity trust crisis. According to Stanford University's 2024 AI Index Report, 52% of Americans are worried about AI products, and 66% believe that AI will have a significant impact on life within 3-5 years.

▌ Lido releases Ethereum staking SDK to support cross-chain staking function integration

Lido has announced the launch of the Ethereum Staking SDK, a TypeScript tool library for building off-chain integrations. The SDK supports developers to seamlessly integrate Lido staking functions into off-chain applications, providing core functions such as staking, reward tracking, withdrawal and packaging. The newly released SDK has multi-chain support features, allowing staking/de-staking operations without cross-chains on networks such as OP Mainnet. The tool includes pre-built methods and complete documentation for developing DeFi protocols, dashboards, or new staking products.

▌ Bio Protocol announced its 2025 roadmap and will launch new BIO Launchpad, etc.

Decentralized Science (DeSci) management and liquidity protocol Bio Protocol announced its 2025 roadmap, including: BIO tokens will undergo TGE on the Ethereum mainnet on January 3; BIO tokens will be listed on the Solana and Base networks; new BioDAO launched; BIO/BioDAO liquidity pool; new BIO Launchpad officially launched.

▌Forbes issued an article predicting seven major trends in the encryption industry in 2025

Forbes issued an article predicting seven major trends in the encryption industry in 2025: 1. The G7 or BRICS countries will establish strategic Bitcoin reserves; 2. The market value of stablecoins will double to US$400 billion; 3. The Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem will rely on L2 networks (such as Stacks, BOB, Babylon) have achieved rapid growth, and the amount locked is expected to exceed the current $24 billion of cross-chain wrapped Bitcoin; 4. Crypto ETFs Products will be expanded to tracks such as Ethereum staking and Solana; 5. Technology giants such as Apple and Microsoft may follow Tesla in increasing their holdings of Bitcoin; 6. The total market value of the encryption market will exceed US$8 trillion; 7. The U.S. regulatory environment Improvements will lead to a renaissance in crypto entrepreneurship.

▌Crypto mining company HIVE Digital invests US$30 million to deploy NVIDIA chip cluster

Crypto mining company HIVE Digital Technologies (NASDAQ: HIVE) announced the deployment of a new batch of NVIDIA GPU clusters in Quebec. The project has a total investment of US$30 million, including 248 H100 GPUs (32 nodes) and 508 H200 GPUs (64 nodes). The H100 cluster will be put into operation before the end of 2024, and the annualized revenue of the HPC business is expected to reach US$15 million in the next quarter; the H200 cluster will arrive in January 2025, and is planned to be deployed in the second quarter of 2025, with expected annualized revenue exceeding $20 million. HIVE Executive Chairman Frank Holmes said that the revenue potential of 10 MW of HPC NVIDIA chips to serve AI needs is equivalent to 100 MW of Bitcoin mining revenue.

cryptocurrency

▌Ethereum NFT trading volume rose to US$186 million last week, a three-month high

According to data from The Block, Ethereum NFT transaction volume rose to US$186 million last week, a three-month high, an increase of 67% from US$111 million the previous week. The Pudgy Penguins series was the main catalyst for the craze after the launch of its PENGU token. The series generated $108 million in trading volume, and a single Pudgy Penguins once traded for more than 29 ETH, but fell rapidly after the token was issued. Bitcoin is the second largest NFT ecosystem, with a weekly trading volume of just $33 million.

▌Goldman Sachs CEO: Many regulated U.S. banks cannot touch cryptocurrencies, and it is still unclear how regulation will evolve

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon noted at a recent Reuters conference that many regulated U.S. banks still have no access to cryptocurrencies. “Everyone is speculating on how the regulatory framework will evolve, but it’s still unclear how the regulatory framework will evolve,” Solomon added. Speculation remains on how long it will take for the first crypto bill to move through the House and Senate, and passed before Trump.

▌ Telegram founder: Total revenue this year exceeds US$1 billion

Telegram founder Pavel Durov posted on his personal TG channel that the number of Telegram Premium subscribers has tripled this year to more than 12 million, and advertising revenue has also increased several times. In addition, Telegram's total revenue exceeded $1 billion in 2024, its cash reserves at the end of the year exceeded $500 million, excluding crypto assets, and Telegram issued approximately $2 billion in debt over the past four years.

▌ Coinbase report: The total market value of stablecoins has increased by 48% since the beginning of 2024

A report from Coinbase shows that the total market value of stablecoins has increased by 48% since the beginning of 2024.

▌ 2 giant whales increased their holdings of 4.47 million ai16z

According to Lookonchain monitoring, two giant whales are hoarding ai16z. AVLKwK...x1Mv spent 3.71 million USDC today to purchase 2.96 million ai16z for about $1.253. 65FwXv...T4HE spent 10,000 SOL ($1.88 million) today to buy 1.51 million ai16z for about $1.247.

Important economic developments

▌The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 87.2%

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 87.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 12.8%. The probability of keeping current interest rates unchanged by March next year is 50.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 44.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 5.4%.

▌ VanEck: Bitcoin reserve strategy may reduce U.S. debt by 35%, offsetting approximately US$42 trillion in liabilities

Asset management company VanEck said that if the United States established a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins in accordance with the bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the United States’ national debt could be reduced by 35% in the next 24 years. VanEck's estimate assumes that Bitcoin will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% to $42.3 million in 2049, while U.S. Treasuries will climb at a CAGR of 5% from $37 trillion in early 2025 to the same level. 119.3 trillion US dollars during the period. "By 2049, the reserve could account for 35% of the national debt, offsetting approximately $42 trillion in liabilities," Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz said in a Dec. 20 report. "

▌Wall Street: Forecast 2-year U.S. Treasury yields will fall by 50 basis points next year

Despite the looming threat to bond markets from President-elect Trump's trade and tax policies, Wall Street is taking a cue from the Federal Reserve, predicting a fall in short-term Treasury yields in 2025. Strategists are mostly unanimous in forecasting that the yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to the Fed's interest rate policy, will fall. They believe yields will fall by at least 50 basis points from current levels 12 months from now. The median forecast among 12 strategists is that the 2-year Treasury yield will fall by about 50 basis points to 3.75% in one year. For the longer-dated 10-year Treasury note, strategists believe the yield, which was about 4.52% last Friday, will reach 4.25% by the end of 2025, about 25 basis points below current levels.

▌The Korean won exchange rate fell below 1,480 won to 1 U.S. dollar, the lowest since 2009

On December 27, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar in the Seoul foreign exchange market exceeded 1,480 won to 1 U.S. dollar. Previously, South Korea's political turmoil caused the Korean won to continue to fall. On December 19, in the Seoul foreign exchange market, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar opened at 1,453.0 won to 1 U.S. dollar, setting the lowest value since March 2009. (Golden Ten)

▌The U.S. dollar index is up more than 7% so far this year, its best performance since 2015

The dollar is heading for its best annual performance in nearly a decade as a strengthening U.S. economy dampens expectations for a rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve and President-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose tough tariffs underpins bullish dollar bets. The Bloomberg Dollar Index is up more than 7% so far this year, its best performance since 2015. All developed world currencies weakened against the dollar as other central banks had to step in to support their economies.