Trump's tariff game: "Trade-making promotes talk", Game of Thrones in market fluctuations

Author: Ac-Core, YBB Capital Researcher

1. The trade war continues to escalate, and the 24-hour cross-market

flash crash relay race

Source: forbes

1.1 Global financial market collapses!

Early in the morning of April 7, the global financial markets were panic as the trade frictions escalated by "reciprocal tariffs", and stocks, crude oil, precious metals and even cryptocurrencies collapsed across the board. In the early trading of the Asian session, the three major U.S. stock index futures continued to decline last week, with the Nasdaq 100 futures falling by 5%, while the S&P 500 and Dow futures both fell by more than 4%. The European market is also overcast, with Germany's DAX futures falling nearly 5%, and European STOXX50 and British FTSE futures both fell by more than 4%.

The Asian market is now stampede: South Korea's KOSPI 200 futures plummeted 5% in the early trading, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism to suspend trading; the Australian stock index's decline expanded from 2.75% to 6% within two hours of opening; the Singapore Straits Times index fell 7.29% in a single day to set a record. The Middle East market staged a "Black Sunday" ahead of schedule. Saudi Tadawul index plummeted 6.1% in a single day, and the stock indexes of oil-producing countries such as Qatar and Kuwait all fell by more than 5.5%.

The commodity market is full of sorrow: WTI crude oil fell below the psychological threshold of $60, hitting a two-year low, with a daily decline of 4%; gold unexpectedly fell below the support level of $3,010, and silver's weekly decline expanded to 13%; Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency field fell below the key support level, Ethereum plummeted 10% during the day, and the myth of safe-haven by digital assets was completely shattered.

1.2 Impact on the crypto market

Short-term market impact

The Trump administration's recent policies have had a significant volatility effect on the crypto market. In January this year, when Trump signed an executive order to establish a cryptocurrency regulatory framework and study the national cryptocurrency reserves, the market responded positively, pushing the total market value of cryptocurrencies to climb to $3.65 trillion at the end of the month, achieving a cumulative increase of 9.14%. However, the introduction of the tariff policy in February quickly reversed the previous market trend. Especially after announcing the implementation of long-term import tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico on February 3, the crypto market experienced a significant decline in linkage with the stock market: Bitcoin fell by 8% within 24 hours, and Ethereum fell by more than 10%, triggering a US$900 million liquidation of positions across the network and forced closing of 310,000 investors.

From the perspective of transmission mechanism, tariff policies affect crypto markets through multiple paths: first, trade frictions intensify global market volatility, push the US dollar as a safe-haven asset to strengthen, and prompt funds to flow back to the US market; second, institutional investors may liquidate crypto assets to manage risks to make up for losses in other investment portfolios; inflationary pressure caused by tariffs may weaken consumption capacity, thereby reducing market risk preference, especially in encrypted high-volatility markets.

Long-term potential opportunities

Despite significant short-term impacts, tariff policies may create structural opportunities for the crypto market in the following aspects:

• Liquidity expansion expectations
  The Trump administration may implement expansionary fiscal policies through tax cuts and infrastructure investment, and the monetization measures taken to make up for the fiscal deficit or take to increase market liquidity. Historical experience shows that during the US$3 trillion expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in 2020, the price of Bitcoin rose by more than 300% during the same period, indicating that a new round of liquidity injection may provide support for crypto assets.

• Strengthening of anti-inflation attributes
  Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp, pointed out that if the trade war leads to the depreciation of the US dollar, Bitcoin may become a hedge tool due to its fixed totality. The potential depreciation of competitive currencies caused by tariff policies may prompt more investors to use cryptocurrencies as an alternative channel for capital flows across borders.

2. "Businessman + dictatorship = market manipulation"

Source: marketwatch

2.1 Starting from the tariff war on the trade deficit

In Trump's businessman's mind, the so-called "trade deficit" is not actually a complex economic concept, but more like the price asymmetry between the purchaser and the supplier in a procurement negotiation. You can refer to the content of economist Fu Peng to explain: Now the purchaser calls all potential suppliers to the conference table and says, "We want to talk about the conditions for cooperation again." Does this sound a bit like the centralized bidding in the pharmaceutical industry? That's right, Trump's operation is actually a typical bidding tactic.

If tariffs are regarded as a "quotation restriction", then the high tariffs set by Trump are actually equivalent to a psychological price set by the purchaser in advance in bidding - whoever wants to win the bid must compete below this price. This setting sounds rough and even a bit "smacking", but it is very common in many actual procurement negotiations, especially in large-scale centralized procurement projects led by the government.

Some people questioned whether this was decided by Trump temporarily using Excel watch, but it was not. His strategy is not complicated. In essence, it is to force suppliers to come to the negotiating table by artificially setting a "threshold price". The most direct effect of this trick is that whoever doesn’t come to talk will be eliminated by default, because if you don’t accept this “upper quotation”, you can only be taxed on the worst conditions, which basically means you automatically give up the market access qualification.

At this time, countries that want to participate in this "bidding" can only sit down and talk to the United States - how to reduce tariffs, how to quota for products, and how to change rules. It looks like a trade confrontation, but in fact it is more like a business negotiation driven by rounds of games. Because of this, the report of Mohamed Apabay, head of Asian trading strategy at Citibank, made it very clear: Trump is using a typical negotiation tactic now.

For those small and medium-sized suppliers, there is actually not much room for them because it is difficult for them to bargain with the buyer alone. So the purchaser (that is, the United States) took advantage of the concessions of these small suppliers to further put pressure on greater suppliers. This strategy of breaking through the edge first and then surrounding the center. To put it bluntly, it is to use external concessions to force core players to compromise.

So in a sense, Trump’s so-called “tariff war” is not entirely for the purpose of starting a war, but for creating a “must-have” situation. Is it that he really wants to play?

2.2 “Dictarian”

Although the United States has a strong constitutional system and democratic tradition, during Trump's presidency, his many words and deeds were widely criticized as having a "dictatorial" tendency. This evaluation is not groundless, but based on his repeated impacts on institutional norms, democratic mechanisms, public opinion environment and power structure. Although Trump failed to completely break the US institutional framework, his behavior reflects the typical dictatorial characteristics - breaking institutional boundaries, suppressing dissent, and strengthening personal authority.

Destroy the checks and balances of the system and bypass Congress ' concentration of power

During Trump's administration, he frequently used Executive Orders to promote policies, including building a US-Mexico border wall, issuing a "Muslim ban order", and reducing environmental protection supervision. He even declared the country a "state of emergency" to mobilize military spending when Congress refused to allocate funds for the border wall, bypassing the constraints of the legislature. This behavior undermined the principle of separation of powers in the US Constitution, led to an unprecedented expansion of administrative power, and was considered to have a clear centralized tendency.

Attack the freedom of the press and create an "enemy" public opinion environment

Trump often calls media criticizing himself "fake news", and even uses the term "public enemy" to refer to traditional news organizations such as CNN and the New York Times. He repeatedly attacked journalists, TV hosts and commentators on Twitter, arousing supporters to develop hostility to the media. In political communication, this means of "delegalizing" media is one of the common public opinion control strategies used by dictatorial leadership. Its purpose is to weaken the public's trust in diverse information sources and establish a "information monopoly."

Intervene in judicial independence and emphasize "loyalty rather than professionalism"

Trump has repeatedly attacked the judicial system in public, especially when the court ruled that it was contrary to his policies, he even directly criticized the judge by name. For example, he once called a judge who opposed his immigration policy “Mexican”, suggesting that his verdict was unfair. In addition, he often values ​​loyalty more than professional ability in senior appointments, and frequently changes key positions such as the attorney general and the FBI director, which seriously impacted judicial independence.

Reject election results and undermine the tradition of peace and right to interfere

After the 2020 presidential election, Trump firmly refused to admit defeat, accused the election of "stolen", and repeatedly asked states to "recount votes" or "abolition of results." What's more serious is that his remarks eventually led to a congressional riot on January 6, 2021, with a large number of supporters storming Congress in an attempt to prevent the certification of Biden's election. This incident is widely known by international public opinion as "the dark day of American democracy", and is also an obvious attempt to interfere with the transfer of peaceful power, with substantial characteristics of authoritarianism.

Promote individual worship and form the "leader's only" narrative

Trump has promoted a highly personalized dominance style within the party and government, demanding absolute loyalty. He often touted himself at rallies, describing himself as "the greatest president in history" and implying that without his country, he would decay. This political discourse creates a "savior" personal myth, weakens the presence of collective governance and institutional norms, and easily slides towards personality cult and populism.

2.3 Trump's two-sided chess game: not the president but the "Stock God"

Donald Trump, the billionaire born in the real estate empire, was surprised that when he was successfully elected President of the United States in 2016, many people were surprised that an "atypical politician" reached the world's most powerful throne of power. Looking at his governance style and political behavior, and combining the assumptional positioning of Trump's "businessman" and "dictator" in the above article, only personal views believe that Trump is not a true "president", but more like a "super trader" who regards power, public opinion and financial markets as tools: a "stock god" who turns the White House into a Wall Street trading room to earn market volatility. So from the perspective of "traders", it seems that all the re-realistic operations have become reasonable to understand Trump who does not play according to common sense.

Businessman’s Nature: Treating the Presidency as a “Super Trading Platform”

Trump is a typical businessman-type politician. He has worked hard in the business world for decades and is good at creating topics, controlling public opinion, and speculating arbitrage. He does not govern the country according to political logic, but looks at the US and global affairs from a "business perspective". He governed the country not for the sake of institutional improvement or global leadership, but for the pursuit of "transaction results", emphasizing "America first", and the essence is "profit first".

Secondly, Trump also showed strong characteristics of "dictator", especially in the way of guiding public opinion and centralizing power. He controls the rhythm of information and is keen to post market-shaking remarks through Twitter, such as "We are about to reach a major agreement with China" or "The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates", which often cause violent fluctuations in the financial market. For an ordinary president, these remarks may be diplomatic postures; but for a leader who acts with "market operational thinking", these are precise tools for manipulating the market.

Authoritarian Language Arts: Using information to interfere with market sentiment

If a core feature of a dictator is "control and utilization of information", then Trump is a master in modern society who "shocks the market" through information. He does not need to censor or shut down the media, but becomes the strongest source of information in the market by creating uncertainty and confrontational sentiment.

In the Twitter era, he posted "market impact remarks" almost like a financial anchor every day:

• “China will sign a huge trade deal”;

• “If the Fed does not cut interest rates, the United States will lose its competitiveness”;

• "The oil price is too high, it is OPEC's fault";

• "The border wall will be built, and the market should feel at ease."

These discourses themselves do not constitute formal policies, but frequently cause drastic fluctuations in the Dow Jones Index, S&P 500, gold and crude oil markets. The rhythm of information release, the heavy wording, and even the time choice are all very obvious.

What is even more striking is that he repeatedly "turned" at different times today to praise the good progress of Sino-US negotiations, but announced an increase in tariffs tomorrow; he said in the morning that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates, and in the afternoon, he said the US dollar was too weak. This repeated jump is not a political swing, but a precise control of market sentiment, making fluctuations a controllable harvesting opportunity.

Family Capital Relations Network: Arbitrage Channel Based on Power and Information

Trump's business network was not suspended after being elected president, but was given more "legality" and influence. His family members such as Kushner and Ivanka are still widely involved in political and commercial affairs, and have direct influence in many fields such as Middle East policy, technology investment, and real estate. News about its family trust funds and close friend investment groups using policy forward-looking financial arbitrage have been repeatedly disclosed:

• Before Trump's large-scale tax cut policy was introduced, some funds closely related to him had a heavy holding of US stocks;

• Whenever Trump suggests that strategic oil reserves may be released or military operations are launched, suspicious transactions in the energy market always appear in advance;

• During the trade war with China, before and after Trump's speech on "reach of an agreement", the market response was highly sensitive and there were many short-term surges.

Although it is impossible to directly confirm insider trading, the concentration of its information control and policy decision-making power makes the "arbitrage channel" have strong practical value. The president is no longer a representative of the system, but a "trader" with unlimited front information and voice.

" Creating chaos - guiding direction - harvesting results": Typical methods for market operators

Traditional presidents seek stability and continuity, and Trump seems to be constantly "creating chaos." He is good at causing market panic, and then guides market repair through "soothing" speeches - the whole process is like a band operation:

• "Fire" at Iran - market panic - sending negotiation signals the next day - market rebound;

• Announced an increase in tariffs on China—tech stocks plummeted—a few days later said that "China's attitude is good"—a rebound;

• During the virus, the epidemic was said to be "controlled" - the stock market rebounded briefly - and subsequent information reversal fell again.

Behind these seemingly casual speeches is the high coordination of emotional guidance and market rhythm. He understands the expected reaction of public sentiment, like a supermarket trader, dominating the collective psychology of global investors.

Post-Trump Era: Personal Brands Continue to Influence the Market

Even after leaving office, Trump can still control the rhythm of the market. He announced that he "may run for another election" in a disagreement, causing stocks involving energy, military, social media, and conservative technology to immediately move. Taking Truth Social's backdoor listing as an example, stocks once rose sharply without substantial profitability - the capital market regards "Trump" itself as a target of hype, which itself is a reflection of his branding and financialization.

3. The crypto market "arranged" by the United States, the conspiracy and

control of capital and rights

Source: Al Jazeera

3.1 Power Reconstruction: What Trump wants is not Bitcoin, but Bitcoin

that has been “domesticated in the United States”

Today's crypto market is no longer an ideal habitat for decentralization, but a new type of financial colony jointly operated by American capital and power. Since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, Wall Street giants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and MicroStrategy have quickly deployed their BTC spot holdings, locking Bitcoin, which originally belonged to the technology community, into the Wall Street vault. Financialization and policyization have become the dominant logic, and the price of crypto assets is no longer determined by the market's spontaneous behavior, but is reliant on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hints, the SEC's regulatory dynamics, and even a verbal promise of "supporting encryption" by the presidential candidate.

The essence of this "US stock marketization" is to re-embed decentralized assets into a center - the American financial hegemony system. ETFs have allowed the crypto market to rise and fall with the US stock market. Behind the K-line chart is the pulse of US bond market fluctuations and CPI data. Bitcoin, once regarded as a symbol of freedom, is now increasingly like an "alternative Nasdaq stock that delays the intentions of the Federal Reserve."

3.2 The strategic value of Bitcoin: non-sovereign reserve assets, but a

gray spare tire for US dollar hegemony

The Trump era laid the foreshadowing for Bitcoin’s national financial positioning. Instead of directly proclaiming support like traditional politicians, he instead incorporated Bitcoin into the US strategic financial resource pool by acquiescing the migration of computing power, relaxing regulatory vague ranges, and supporting mining infrastructure. With the expectation of a weakening of the traditional dollar credit system, Bitcoin is gradually taking on the role of "non-sovereign reserve assets" and being portrayed as a safe-haven alternative in financial turmoil.

This layout is very American: fight without declaration and silently incorporate it. The United States dominated most of Bitcoin’s financial infrastructure (Coinbase, CME, BlackRock ETF), and further mastered on-chain settlement capabilities through the US dollar anchoring of stablecoins (USDC). When global turmoil, capital hedging, and trust transfer occur, the United States has quietly owned this "dollar alternative in de-dollarization."

Trump may see further: Bitcoin’s belief has nothing to do with him, but domesticates its financial attributes into another “monetary tool” of the United States. In scenarios where the US dollar is restricted, SWIFT is difficult to use, and fiat currency depreciation, Bitcoin has become a spare tire solution for power maintenance.

3.3 What is the truth about trading? Trump is not only the president,

but also the "super dealer" in the traffic finance battlefield

First of all, we understand the fact that 90% of the time of any financial market is mainly fluctuating, and only "large fluctuations can make big money."

So to sum up all the views, Trump appears to be a president on the surface, but in fact he is more like a traffic-driven super trader. The purpose of all this is to create market volatility and control market volatility, just to make volatile profits.

Trump is a "speculator" who is good at controlling the market direction through information, traffic and influence and earning market fluctuations. While supporting Bitcoin as the "U.S. strategic reserve", it also absorbs market liquidity by launching the Meme token $TRUMP. This is a market manipulation strategy of "information intervention + liquidity blood-sucking".

What's more cruel is that the trend of the crypto market is increasingly dependent on American political game: the Fed's statement, the US SEC dynamics, the presidential candidate's speech, the emotions of the Congressional hearing... The crypto system that should have been decentralized is now deeply nested by the US dollar policy, the US stock structure and the logic of the US big capital. Now the crypto market has become the "extended battlefield" of the American financial system.

We are also witnessing a cruel reality: the market seems to be free, but has been arranged long ago; the price seems to fluctuate, but behind it is the people who control the news and traffic.