Trading Moment: Global stock markets evaporate by reciprocal tariffs of $10 trillion, BTC stabilizes around $74,000

1. Market Observation

Keywords: tariffs, ETH, BTC

U.S. President Trump's reciprocal tariff measures officially came into effect today, and the impact of the trade war quickly spread to global financial markets. Ironically, Trump himself was not spared. Since the launch of the comprehensive tariff plan on April 3, its personal net worth has dropped from $4.7 billion to about $4.2 billion, mainly due to the decline in public and private stocks it holds with the market. In terms of the market, global stock markets have evaporated by about $10 trillion since Trump announced the full tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by more than 2,000 points from a high intraday trading, and the high market value of technology giants such as Apple and Microsoft has evaporated by more than $5 trillion. In response, Ken Fisher, founder of Fisher Investment, slammed Trump's tariff policies on social platforms, pointing out that it was "stupid, wrong and extreme". It is worth noting that Europa Exchange CEO Boujnah said that some European investors have begun to transfer physical assets such as gold from the United States to Europe in order to seek a safer haven.

The cryptocurrency market has shown a unique trend in this round of market turmoil. Although Bitcoin once fell to $74,501 on "Black Monday" and once again hit $74,627 today, it seems to have formed a potential support level around $74,000. Crypto analyst Eugene and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes both set up positions around 75,000, and Hayes even predicts that the share of Bitcoin's market value will climb to 70%. Bernstein analysts pointed out that the current decline of only 26% indicates that Bitcoin is receiving more resilient capital support compared to the deep pullback of 50% to 70% in history. In addition, Matrixport analysis pointed out that the US dollar-RMB exchange rate is approaching key technical resistance levels, which may indicate that Bitcoin is about to usher in a new round of rapid rise. Standard Chartered Bank even predicts that Ripple's XRP token price may rise to $12.50 before Trump leaves office.

In terms of supervision, the situation is becoming increasingly complex. In order to comply with Trump's executive order on digital assets, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the dissolution of the department dedicated to cryptocurrency-related investigations. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is considering suing the Trump administration to block new tariffs that will take effect on Wednesday, and other groups may join the lawsuit, Fortune magazine reported. US Treasury Secretary Bescent said that it is currently discussing which regions to reach a tariff agreement with, but White House officials have confirmed that there will be no tariff exemptions in the near future. It is reported that more than 50 countries (regions) have come forward to seek negotiations.

At the macroeconomic level, the situation is becoming increasingly severe. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers warned that Trump's tariff policy could lead to a recession in the United States, with about 2 million Americans expected to lose their jobs and each family faces a loss of at least $5,000 in income. Goldman Sachs' strategy team issued a warning that the current stock market sell-off could evolve into a cyclical bear market that lasts longer. The U.S. bond market suffered a sharp sell-off, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield soaring to 4.503%, and the 30-year yield exceeded 5.010%. Wall Street bigwigs, including Bill Ackman, Daniel Loeb and Jim Chanos, spoke out collectively, warning Trump that there were serious calculation errors in the latest tariff policies, magnifying tariff levels in other countries by four times. However, Fisher provided a relatively optimistic view, thinking that the market might have been overreacted, and for example, the stock market experienced similar adjustments in 1998, and in the end it still achieved a return of 26%.

2. Key data (as of 13:30 HKT on April 9)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $76,492.96 (-18.12%), daily spot trading volume $52.41 billion

• Ethereum: $1,454.83 (-56.28% during the year), daily spot trading volume is $27.709 billion

• Corruption Index: 18 (Extremely Panic)

• Average GAS: BTC 0.51 sat/vB, ETH 0.38 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 62.5%, ETH 7.2%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, AERGO, BTC, ETH, AQT

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0004

• The sector rises and falls: The crypto market generally fell, with the Meme sector falling 5.58% and the AI ​​sector falling 5.55%

• 24-hour liquidation data: 137,588 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of US$412 million, and its BTC liquidation was US$141 million and ETH liquidation was US$112 million.

• BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line ($82688.70), lower line ($81051.30)

• ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper line ($1774.39), lower line ($1739.26)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- and long-term bullish trend, and vice versa is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly in the range or in the short term, it is a bottom or top state.

3.ETF flow direction (EST as of April 4)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$326 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$3.29 million

4. Looking forward today

• Binance Contract Adjusts SOLUSDT U-standard Perpetual Contract Minimum Order Number (Originally scheduled for April 2)

• Movement (MOVE) Unlocks 50 million tokens worth approximately US$20.9 million

• US SEC will decide whether to approve BlackRock Ethereum ETF options trading

• U.S. Senate conducts procedural "termination of debate" vote on SEC chairman nominee Paul Atkins

• Federal Reserve releases minutes of March monetary policy meeting

The United States has not adjusted its annual CPI rate in March (20:30 on April 10)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: 2.8% / Expected: 2.6%

The number of people who requested initial unemployment benefits in the United States to April 5 (10,000) (20:30 on April 10)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: 21.9 / Expected: 22.3

The biggest increase in the top 500 market value today : ARDR rose 73.38%, FORTH rose 36.70%, GAS rose 31.30%, RFC rose 29.01%, and SOS rose 18.83%.

5. Hot News

• Moonshot launches Chicken Jockey ($jockey)

• Ouyi OKX will launch PROMPT (Wayfinder) spot trading

• A giant whale that was long in ETH cycle cut 5,094 ETH again, with a cumulative loss of US$40 million

• The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 45.2%

• Retard Finder Coin (RFC) has been added to Binance Alpha

• CBOE submits 19b-4 application documents to the US SEC for Canary SUI ETF

• Standard Chartered Bank: XRP could hit $12.5 before Trump's presidency ends

• Bubblemaps: 50 million MELANIA tokens have been transferred from community funds and partially sold

• PancakeSwap Community Launches CAKE Token Economics 3.0 Proposal: It plans to reduce supply by 20% in the next five years

• Europa Exchange CEO: Global stock markets have evaporated by about $10 trillion since Trump announced its full tariffs

• Perhaps affected by Binance's removal, four tokens including PROS and FIRO fell by more than 50%.

• Glassnode: Bitcoin is stabilizing around $74,000, and the decline may slow down slightly

• Strategy did not increase its Bitcoin stake last week