Trading moment: BTC bull market score hits a new low in two years, and the layout of many ETF products has accelerated

1. Market Observation

Keywords: BNB, ETH, BTC

The BSC ecosystem is still strong. He started to promote the ecological Meme project. Influenced by its comments and attention, the Meme coins BUBB and TAT on Binance Chain have become popular recently. At the same time, internal competition within the Solana ecosystem has intensified, Pump.fun has launched the native decentralized exchange PumpSwap, and Raydium is also developing the Meme coin issuance platform LaunchLab.

In terms of the market, BTC has recently been similar to the stock market, fluctuating around $85,000. CryptoQuant's latest data shows that the Bitcoin bull rating index has fallen to its lowest point in two years, at just 20, down 23% from its peak. Historical data show that a strong rebound will only occur when the index is above 60, and the continued downturn in the current index may herald the formation of bear market trends. From the perspective of institutional trading, the Greeks.live report shows that large-scale transactions are mainly concentrated in the Bitcoin options market, with a buying risk reversal transaction of up to US$33.4455 million, indicating that institutional investors are actively planning to hedge downside risks. Judging from the community response, Chinese and English investors' views on the market prospects also differ. Some investors closely monitor the important level of US$83-85K. Some traders expect Bitcoin to rise briefly before the continuous fluctuation. Some radical opinions predict that Bitcoin may rise to US$444,000. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently expressed his opinion that Bitcoin $77,000 may already constitute a phased bottom. However, he also reminded investors that they need to remain flexible and hold sufficient cash, because the stock market may need further adjustments, which often affect the trend of the cryptocurrency market.

The SEC has made an important decision recently, determining that PoW mining activities do not constitute securities issuance. At the same time, NYSE Arca has submitted an application to the SEC for changes in the staking rules of Bitwise Ethereum ETF. Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, said that Ethereum ETF has performed mediocrely since its launch in July last year, mainly due to the inability to obtain pledge income. In addition, Ripple CEO is expected to launch XRP ETF by the end of 2025, while Bitnomial announced the launch of the first CFTC-regulated XRP futures product in the United States.

At the macro level, QCP Capital analysis pointed out that the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce its quantitative tightening (QT) plan from April has provided an important upward catalyst for the market, which is also one of the important factors that have previously driven the Bitcoin price to exceed $85,000. However, considering the three rate cuts expected by the Federal Reserve in 2025 and the differentiation of current market sentiment, traders need to pay special attention to the performance of price support levels and do a good job in risk management. At the same time, retail investors' sentiment remains cautious. The latest survey by the American Association of Retail Investors (AAII) showed that bullish sentiment was only 21.6%, far below the historical average of 37.5%, while bearish proportions were as high as 58.1%, which has remained above 57% for the fourth consecutive week.

2. Key data (as of 13:30 HKT on March 21)

• Bitcoin: $84,384.27 (-9.82% during the year), daily spot trading volume $24.648 billion

• Ethereum: $1,972.88 (-40.89%), daily spot trading volume is $13.189 billion

• Corruption Index: 31 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.44 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 60.6%, ETH 8.6%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, AUCTION, BTC, VANA, LAYER

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9818

• Sector rises and falls: SocialFi sector rises 3.25%, RWA sector rises 2.48%

• 24-hour liquidation data: 83,084 people around the world were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of US$191 million, with a BTC liquidation of US$64.04 million and ETH liquidation of US$33.12 million

3.ETF flow direction (EST as of March 20)

• Bitcoin ETF: $166 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$12.4093 million

4. Looking forward today

• Binance Launchpool will launch Nillion (NIL) and will launch NIL spot trading pairs on March 24

• Binance will launch 6 perpetual contracts including TUT/USDT, BID/USDT, up to 25 times leverage

• Starknet will soon launch STRK Staking V2 voting, and will launch the test network within a few weeks

• The first roundtable meeting of the SEC Cryptocurrency Working Group will be held on March 21

• Binance supports BinaryX (BNX) name change and token exchange to Four (FORM)

• BNB Chain: TVL incentive plan extends by 1 month, with a deadline of March 21

• South Korean gaming company Wemade's WEMIX token performance bonus dispute lawsuit to hold next debate

• Ethereum Foundation extends application date for 2025 Academic Grant Program to March 23

• Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens at 8 a.m. Beijing time on March 21, with a ratio of 1.39% to the current circulation, worth about US$13.4 million;

• SPACE ID (ID) will unlock 78.49 million tokens at 8 a.m. Beijing time on March 22, with a ratio of 18.23% to the current circulation, worth about US$19.3 million;

• MANTRA (OM) will unlock 5 million tokens at 8 a.m. Beijing time on March 23, with a ratio of 0.51% to the current circulation, worth about US$32.8 million;

• Murasaki (MURA) will unlock 10 million tokens at 8 a.m. Beijing time on March 23, with a ratio of 1.00% to the current circulation, worth about US$7.4 million;

The biggest gains in the top 500 market cap today: Orca (ORCA) rose 67.54% in 24 hours, Bone ShibaSwap (BONE) rose 28.10%, X Empire (X) rose 23.78%, Vana (VANA) rose 19.32%, LayerZero (ZRO) rose 18.49%

5. Hot News

• Deputy Director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory: Bitcoin is a unique financial asset

• Bithumb will launch Pax Gold (PAXG) in the Korean won market

• A trader trades BUBB tokens to turn $304 into $482,000, with a return rate of 1586 times

• BlackRock Digital Assets Director: The approval for pledge may be a "huge leap" for Ethereum ETFs

• A whale/institution that has held ETH for 8 years has transferred 34,000 ETH into Coinbase, earning 44 times the profit

• YZi Labs announces Jane He as its general partner, leading biotech investment

• NYSE Arca applies to US SEC to add staking function for Bitwise Ethereum ETF

• Coinbase adds ALT, PENDLE and L3 to the currency roadmap

• Tether becomes the seventh largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds in 2024, surpassing countries such as Canada and Norway

• US SEC says Proof of Work Mining does not involve securities laws

• Coinbase adds Freysa (FAI) to its asset roadmap

• Canary has submitted Form S1 to apply for PENGU ETF

• Walrus protocol announces token economic model: 10% is used for Walrus user aircasting

• Telegram-based TON Foundation raises over $400 million through token sale

• ZachXBT: "Hyperliquid high-leverage giant whale" may be a scamman William Parker

• Binance Alpha has added BR (Bedrock)

• Telegram's monthly active users exceeded 1 billion, helping BOMBIE become the top small game with TON's ecological income

• Binance Launchpool will launch Nillion (NIL) and will launch NIL spot trading pairs on March 24

• Binance will launch 6 perpetual contracts including TUT/USDT, BID/USDT, up to 25 times leverage

• The balance of the SHELL market makers' public repurchase address has reached 19.95 million tokens, which is 74% of the repurchase progress has been completed.

• Binance launches the first voting listing activity, the first batch of voting listing pools are specifically targeted at tokens based on BNB chains

• UNI token holders approve $165.5 million in new foundation funding, laying the foundation for "fee switch"