The New Year is approaching, will three major catalysts boost the market’s strong rebound in January?

Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

The crypto market has experienced huge fluctuations this month. After breaking through the $100,000 mark for the first time on December 5, it staged a thrilling retracement on December 9 and 10. Since then, the market has slowly fluctuated upwards. Just when market investors thought that BTC would break through $110,000, Fed Powell's hawkish speech dealt a heavy blow to the heating market, and the copycat market led by Ethereum ushered in a bloody correction. Currently, the prices of some altcoins are even close to being cut in half from this month’s top.

Crypto investor panic spread, and anxiety and uneasiness flooded the community.

Countless investors are asking: Is the bull market really over? How will the market trend in the future? Although the market is unpredictable, what will be the catalysts in January? Why is January’s performance worth looking forward to?

1. Trump will take office as president on January 20

After Trump successfully ran for president in early November, the market experienced a month-long continuous rise. Trump has shown himself to be crypto-friendly, and the heads of various departments he has nominated are mostly people who are pro-crypto market. The chairman of the SEC, who has always been criticized, is also about to leave his post. This cannot help but make the market generally optimistic about the future of the crypto market. manner.

The latest data shows that compared with the previous term, the new parliamentarians who are about to take office have a significant lead in the proportion and number of people who agree with encryption.

According to the latest report from Reuters, Michael Rosen, chief investment officer of Angeles Investments, said that Trump’s inauguration may also bring some surprises to the market. He is expected to issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, ranging from immigration to energy and Cryptocurrency policy and a host of other issues.

The market is paying attention to Trump’s future moves on the crypto market. If he can fulfill his campaign promises, the crypto market may usher in its own golden age.

2. FTX is about to start repaying debt

On December 17, FTX and its associated debtors announced that the Chapter 11 reorganization plan approved by the court will officially take effect on January 3, 2025.

The first round of distribution will start within 60 days of the effective date and will only be available to approved debt holders in the Convenience Classes. FTX has reached an agreement with cryptocurrency custodian BitGo and trading platform Kraken to provide asset allocation services to retail and institutional clients.

According to data disclosed by HODL15Capital, FTX included US$16 billion in cash in the first round of repayment distribution that officially took effect on January 3.

Some of the tokens previously held by FTX/Alameda, such as SOL/WLD, have been basically sold.

Creditors are compensated not in tokens but in cash, which indirectly reduces market selling pressure and increases the probability that part of the compensation funds will flow into crypto again, thereby boosting the market.

3. BTC generally rises during the Lunar New Year

Back in early February 2024, Markus Thielen, founder and head of research at 10X Research, said that Bitcoin tends to rise by 11% around the Lunar New Year. Over the past 9 years, traders have made good profits by buying Bitcoin 3 days before the start of the Lunar New Year and selling Bitcoin 10 days after the start of the Lunar New Year.

February 10th is the Spring Festival of 2024, and Bitcoin has risen all the way from US$43,000 on February 5th to around US$53,000 on February 15th. After that, it started to rise all the way, and hit the Stage high of $72,000.

The Spring Festival in 2021, 2022 and 2024 will all be in early February, while the Spring Festival in 2023 will occur at the end of January. The chart above clearly shows that in the month of the Lunar New Year, BTC rose by more than 10%, with the highest even reaching an astonishing 43.55% .

The Spring Festival in 2025 will be January 29, which is earlier than in previous years.

The market often has self-fulfilling prophecies, such as "a rising October", and the market performance during the Lunar New Year is worth looking forward to.