The macro environment is in turmoil, what should crypto investors do?

If Bitcoin’s halving cycle is used as the time anchor, the Fed’s interest rate cut cycle should have occurred in Q4, 23.

But the Biden administration at that time distorted non-agricultural data by liberalizing illegal immigration employment and expanding the scale of government employees, and resisted not cutting interest rates. However, since the US Treasury Department needs to issue a large amount of US bonds to raise funds to pay for Biden's Keynesian policy, the 10-year US bond yield (real market interest rate) has a steep slope downward, creating a span of Q4 in 23 and Q1 in 24 years seasonal bull market.

Entering Q2 24, with the convergence of bond issuance speed of the Ministry of Finance and the outbreak of global non-US system risks (Tongda Real Estate Market + Japanese Bond Market), the demand for safe-haven funds is strong, and the US dollar, US bonds and gold have become tight products, plus Q2 The historical tradition of the risk market without market conditions has entered a period of depression.

By Q3, 2024, in order to save Biden/Harris' election situation, the Federal Reserve started the process of interest rate cuts, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose strongly, with a strange phenomenon of lowering the nominal interest rate while the real interest rate approaching a record high. Therefore, the market in Q4, 2024 was not driven by external hot money, but the "Trump transaction" and the autumn restlessness. In fact, it was also since Trump was elected as the president of the United States and since Trump issued the Meme coin of the same name to hollow out the liquidity on the chain.

When time evolved to Q1 25, the main contradiction in the market was no longer the contradiction between non-agricultural and CPI data and the Fed's expected management, but the contradiction between the White House, the Ministry of Government Efficiency and the Fed. This contradiction is so severe that DeepSeek pierces the hegemony of US AI, even US debt has suffered a rapid sell-off. The decline in real interest rates caused by panic did not help the spring market, but instead prompted a large amount of capital outflow.

Now we are facing a basic fact that the United States has entered a state of great changes unseen in a century. Understand the Musk Reform supported by the King, and success will extend the life of the United States, the world empire, for 100 years. What will happen if it fails? I dare not Imagine.

Faced with such huge systemic risks and the uncertainty of the US crypto regulatory framework in July, the big players in the crypto market, who are in prisoner's dilemma, choose to take the initiative to make the best priority to empty liquidity.

This is the logic of Binance’s rebellion and calling for its own Meme. This is the logic of OKX launching PI through the world. This is the logic of a lot of top-level market projects. This is the logic of TGE.

The wind and rain are like darkness, which is not conducive to adults, so you should keep your principal.