The crypto game between "expectation" and "reality": Trump's dinner, who is manipulating the nerves of the market?

On May 22, 2025, outside the Trump National Golf Club in Stirling, Virginia, protesters held up signs of "crypto corruption", while inside the club, 220 "giant whales" holding millions of dollars in Trump tokens (TRUMP) are waiting for dinner with the former president. At the same time, the price of TRUMP tokens staged an absurd roller coaster: at 17 pm on the 22nd, the price rose violently from US$14 to US$16, but fell back to US$14 at 4 AM on the 23rd, when the dinner had not yet begun. Behind this farce, an ultimate game about "market signals" and "real events" is being staged - is it a fact that changes the market, or is the market making up facts?

1. Trump Dinner: A Perfect Experiment to "Expected Overdraft"

1. "FOMO Carnival" on the eve of the dinner

According to on-chain data, within 48 hours after the dinner news was announced, the trading volume of TRUMP tokens surged by 300%, with the average holding cost of 220 "giant whales" as high as US$1.78 million, and the token price once soared by 50%. Ironically, when the dinner on the 22nd US time officially began, prices had fallen early - the market had already completed the harvest in the "expected narrative".

Key logical chains

- Signal propagation> Facts occur: Price peak occurs during the period of news spread (Beijing time on the 22nd), rather than when the event lands (the evening of the 22nd US time)

- Liquidity Trap: Although TRUMP's daily trading volume exceeds US$3.8 billion, the spot depth is less than US$5 million, and the dealer can control the market with only US$20 million.

2. "Self-fulfilling prophecy" of political narratives

The Trump team binds token holdings with political resources (such as the White House visit rights), and is essentially securitizing "social capital". This model relies on continuous hotspot stimulation, and once the narrative stagnates, prices collapse—just as TRUMP fell again after the Democratic lawmakers proposed to ban "crypto corruption" on May 23, TRUMP fell again

2. Do you still remember **the ETF approval: The "information

arbitrage war" behind the collapse of the SEC official website**

ETF frenzy in 2024: delay, congestion and expectation difference : When the SEC official website collapsed briefly due to ETF approval news, the market had completed pricing through "internal leaks" 24 hours in advance , and institutions took advantage of the benefits to sell

Market rules

- Buy expectations, sell facts: When the probability of ETF approval rises to 90%, the price increase has been overdrawn by 80%.

- Income profits from information asymmetry: Bloomberg analysts predict approval progress through regulatory documents, but retail investors are trapped in the cycle of "FOMO chasing the rise - panic and cutting the liquor"

**3. "Narrative Economics" of the crypto market: Who is creating

signals?**

1. The "Tripe" of dealer, media and algorithms

- Banker control: 80% of the chips of TRUMP tokens are controlled by Trump's camp, unlocking events can accurately create selling pressure

- Media Amplifier: "Hurry" from institutions such as Cointelegraph, Bloomberg and others often become tools for price manipulation , such as "SEC delays ETF approval" causing panic

- Algorithm Resonance: Social platforms amplify FOMO emotions through recommendation algorithms to form "trend self-reinforcement"

2. Transfer from "fact-driven" to "signal-driven"

When market volatility no longer depends on entity progress but rather on “pricing of possibilities”, the signal is the fact. For example:

Trump tweets: "The United States will become the capital of crypto" can make SOL rise 70% in a single day

Conclusion: The "Trumen World" of the crypto market

In this virtual theater constructed by expectations, signals and algorithms, real events are nothing more than a footnote to the narrative. When Trump raised his glass at the dinner, the market had already turned to the next hot spot —perhaps a SEC Twitter or an ambiguous draft policy. The only thing investors can be sure of is uncertainty itself.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice, the market is risky, and decision-making should be cautious.