Review of 11 New Currency Market Trends: When the bull market starts, should we run away from the market or hold it for the long term?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)

The recent launch of new MOVE and ME has allowed everyone to see the enthusiasm of the masses and the ferocity of new coins in the bull market. Looking back further, for example, the new currency OL on OKX left a deep impression. After a brief correction after a high opening, it continued to rise like a "bulldozer".

So is the new currency strategy no longer the same under the bull market background, and there is no need to sell as early as the opening of the market like before? Odaily will review the new coins recently launched on several exchanges in this article to try to answer this question.

Basic information

This article selects Binance, OKX, Bybit and new coins that have been launched across the entire network, and the time is limited to the past two months.

• The entire network includes MOVE and ME;

• Binance includes SCR, USUAL (pre-market);

• OKX includes MAJOR, MORPHO, MEMEFI, OL and

• Bybit chose MOZ (Lumoz) and XION.

In terms of time, the 5-minute closing price, 1-hour closing price, 24-hour closing price, 7-day closing price, and current price of the above tokens are calculated (as of 15:00 Beijing time on December 16).

Then compare the rise and fall of each token, such as the 1-hour closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price, to determine whether it is the "opening high".

Does the opening high still exist?

The rise and fall data of each token is shown in the figure below. Among them, the 1-hour closing price fell by an average of 14% relative to the 5-minute closing price, and the 24-hour closing price fell by an average of 7%.

It can be seen that in the short term, the opening 5 minutes is still a high point. If you can get the tokens within this time point, it is still recommended to sell.

There are eight tokens that have been online for 7 days. The closing price of these tokens in 7 days fell 8.7% relative to the closing price in 5 minutes, indicating that the mid-term situation remains unchanged and the opening is still at a high point.

Will things change over time?

The current price has an average increase of 25% relative to the 5-minute closing price of 11 tokens, but after excluding OL, the average price has fallen by 21%, and the decline has further expanded.

The opening is still at its peak

To sum up, for most tokens, the opening is still easily the highest point, and the bull market may bring higher opening prices rather than long-term gains. And it will be difficult to eliminate the excessive price caused by the overheated sentiment at the opening within one or two months. According to statistical rules, it is still recommended that if you can get the token within 5 minutes, you still choose to sell it.

Binance New Coin VANA Price Prediction

Based on the past 21 Binance Launchpool data, we get the estimated price of VANA to be 15.9 USDT, corresponding to an FDV of $1.911 billion and an initial circulation market value of $479 million.

The algorithm is: the average annualized return in the past 21 periods is 96%, assuming that it is also 96% in this period; based on the average amount of BNB invested in the past 21 periods and the BNB price of 726 USDT, we can get the same annualized return, VANA’s price needs to reach:

16973725 × 726 ÷ 4080000 × 2 ÷ 365 × 96%=15.93