Recession panic triggered "Black Monday": Stocks and coins double kills, and Bitcoin really falls to $75,000?

The bubble of "buying US stocks and making money by stolen" seems to be punctured.

Affected by negative sentiment such as increasing concerns about the US recession, the US stock market encountered a "Black Monday". As of the closing of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 2%, the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, and the Nasdaq fell 4%. Tesla (TSLA.O) plummeted 15.4%, Apple (AAPL.O) fell nearly 5%, and NVDA (NVDA.O) fell 5%.

In the crypto market, BTC fell below the $80,000 mark for the second time in three weeks, hitting a low of $77,400 in the past 24 hours, ETH fell back near US$1,800, and the total market value of crypto fell by nearly 4%.

The previous predictions of BitMEX co-founder and well-known cryptocurrency Arthur Hayes seem to be fulfilling. He had predicted that Bitcoin could fall to $75,000, and that forecast is becoming more credible as market sentiment worsens.

Hayes reiterated in his latest tweet that Bitcoin may fall further to $75,000 and warned: "If it enters this range, the market will fluctuate violently." He pointed out that the open position of option contracts around $75,000 has illuminated a "red light", indicating that market sentiment is extremely pessimistic.

Trump's words overturn the market, the shadow of the US economic

recession is shrouded

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with CNBC on Friday that the U.S. economy may experience a "detox period" as the new administration cuts government spending.

Trump also responded to the possibility of a recession in a Fox News interview aired Sunday, saying the economy is in a "transition period."

"I have to build a strong country, you can't just focus on the stock market," Trump said.

Goldman Sachs has recently significantly lowered its economic growth expectations due to the potential impact of tariffs, further aggravating the market's pessimism about the outlook for the US economy.

New York Fed data shows that inflation expectations in February 1 were 3.13%, and the expectations for worsening financial situation in the next year are the strongest since November 2023.

"We are in the midst of a human adjustment, and I say the artificial adjustment is because it is actually a response to a new government tariff plan or at least a tariff threat, and what impact it will have on the economy," Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research told CNBC.

Institutional analysis pointed out that if concerns about a recession caused by the trade war come true, the Federal Reserve may start a series of rapid rate cuts in June. The futures market has bet on a 25 basis point cut in June, July and October.

Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, warned that if the labor or financial markets decline, the Fed would face a dual risk: to deal with inflation and to withstand Trump's pressure to cut interest rates. However, whether interest rate cuts can save market confidence remains unknown.

Analyst: Bitcoin needs to experience a "mini recession" before rebounding

Institutional investors are withdrawing from the crypto market, and crypto investment products have seen net capital outflows for the fourth consecutive week. According to CoinShares, the crypto fund outflow last week was $867 million, with total outflows reaching $4.75 billion in four weeks. Most bearish sentiment comes from the United States, where U.S. investors ditched $922 million last week.

Zach Burks, CEO of Mintology, NFT markets, said Bitcoin could fall to $72,000 due to inflation concerns and the weakening of Bitcoin’s attractiveness as a “Trump deal.” "Many investors are withdrawing Bitcoin, the first time since Trump took office that it is regarded as a high-risk asset."

Burks believes that Bitcoin’s failure to decouple from U.S. stocks has lost its function as a store of value tool. Instead, investors are turning to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. He predicts that although Bitcoin may rebound to $110,000 this year, the market must first survive the "mini recession" triggered by Trump's policies.

Ernst & Young economist Gregory Daco told CNN that the uncertainty and confusion of Trump's policy do not help the overall economic situation. "The current situation is that the policy is unclear, the policy intentions are unclear, and the policy objectives are not clear, and all these factors add up to make investors feel uneasy because it is not clear where the policy will go in the end," he said.

So, in such an environment, Don't Fight it, Float with It, before the storm comes, true wisdom may not be fighting against the current, but choosing to drift with the flow safely and accumulate strength.