QCP Capital: This market rebound may be driven by spot demand for ETFs, and we are still cautious about whether it can continue to rise.

PANews reported on March 24 that Singapore's crypto investment institution QCP Capital issued a statement saying that the crypto market rebounded moderately last weekend, with BTC and ETH breaking through US$85,000 and US$2,000 respectively. The recovery appears to be led by the stock market, with stock futures showing a strong rebound. While concerns about the recession continue, Powell’s speech at the FOMC meeting last week, while cautious, helped ease investor tensions. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has risen from 32% last week to 45% this week (49% neutral), reflecting a general relief from risk aversion.

The highlight of note is the inflow of spot BTC ETFs, which purchased 8,775 BTC (equivalent to $744 million) last week, a significant increase. This marks a sharp reversal after several consecutive weeks of net outflows and sends early signs of liquidity reflux in crypto markets. As perpetual positions remain in a downturn and capital rates remain flat, the rebound appears to be driven by real spot demand rather than leverage, a key difference, as leverage-driven trends tend to suddenly close positions at liquidation.

However, despite the resurgence of ETF momentum and a subsequent rebound today, it is still cautious about the prospect of continuing to break through and rise. The upcoming tariff escalation to be implemented on April 2 could put pressure on risky assets again. Meanwhile, the options market reflects a more neutral wait-and-see attitude, implicit volatility tends to decline, and risk reversals for all periods flattening, in sharp contrast to the more bearish trend observed a week ago.

It is important to keep a close eye on whether this week’s recovery will be exactly the same as last Monday’s price trend, when cryptocurrencies rose on Sunday but pulled sharply in 48 hours.