Q1 2025 Analysis of the collapse of the crypto market: a new pattern under the game between tariffs, inflation and institutions

1. Macroeconomic shock: double strangle between tariffs and inflation

Trump 's new tariff policy triggers market panic

The United States plans to announce the "reciprocal tariff" policy on April 2, and is expected to impose an average of 15% tariffs on all trading partners, a 5 percentage point increase from previous expectations. Goldman Sachs warned that the move could push up import costs and trigger global retaliation, exacerbating supply chain inflation pressures;

On March 28, the S&P 500 index plummeted 1.97%, technology stocks led the decline, and its market value evaporated by US$505 billion. The crypto market was under pressure at the same time, with Bitcoin falling from $84,000 to $81,565, and its total market value shrunk by 25% to $2.9 trillion;

Inflation data exceeds expectations, the prospect of interest rate cuts is dark

The U.S. core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year in February, higher than expected 2.6%, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 57 (the lowest since 2022). Goldman Sachs lowered its GDP growth forecast in 2025 from 1.5% to 1.0%, and the probability of an economic recession rose to 35%;

Federal Reserve officials expressed their opinions on the verge of hawks, and Boston Fed Chairman Collins said that "it is appropriate to maintain high interest rates longer." The market's expectations for interest rate cuts this year have shrunk from four to one-two times, and risky assets have been sold;

2. Institutional funding trends: ETF differentiation and RWA outbreak

Bitcoin ETF funds flow differentiation

US Bitcoin ETFs have net outflows for two consecutive weeks, with a cumulative outflow of US$1.54 billion in March, of which GBTC sold 641 BTC in a single day (worth $56.45 million). However, BlackRock IBIT still maintained a net inflow, with a cumulative AUM exceeding US$40 billion, showing long-term confidence in the institutions;

El Salvador continues to increase its holdings of BTC, buying 53 pieces in the past 30 days, with a medium-term target of 20,000 pieces, strengthening its positioning of "Bitcoin Strategic Reserves";

RWA track rises against the trend

The market size of tokenized real assets ( RWA) is expected to reach US$50 billion in 2025, and the price of Ondo Finance (ONDO) tokens exceeded US$2.1 to hit a record high, with a total market value of US$2.8 billion. It cooperates with BlackRock BUIDL Fund to provide annualized 4.44% U.S. Treasury bond yields, attracting holdings from institutions such as Grayscale and Pantera Capital;

Maple Finance transformed into RWA mortgage loans, and issued a total of US$2.46 billion in loans, with an annualized yield of 9.69%. After the token MPL shares were exchanged for SYRUP, the market value of circulating exceeded 100 million, becoming the leader in the private credit field;

3. Technological innovation and market differentiation: Layer2 vs. Meme

Layer2 technology upgrade and organizational layout

The Ethereum Pectra upgrade will be launched in April, integrating the execution layer and the consensus layer to improve staking flexibility and paving the way for pledgeable ETH spot ETFs. Fidelity and Grayscale have submitted applications, and if they are approved or attract tens of billions of dollars of funds;

Traditional giants such as Sony and Deutsche Bank have built Layer2 on Ethereum , which has not triggered the C-end market, but has highlighted technical recognition. Base Chain (a subsidiary of Coinbase) has exceeded one million daily active users, and its trading volume exceeds Solana;

Meme Coin Fanaticism and Risk Warning

The "Meme season" of BSC chain continued, with CaptainBNB soaring by 13,000% in 6 hours after its launch, but most projects lack value support. The market value of the TRUMP coins issued by the Trump family once exceeded US$12 billion, but were later questioned as a "disguised corruption tool" and the price was cut in half;

Analysts warn that the trading volume of Meme coins on chains such as Solana and Base accounts for more than 11%, but high leverage and regulatory uncertainty (such as the US Congress legislation restricting politicians from issuing coins) may trigger a sector avalanche;

4. Future Outlook: Key Events and Strategic Suggestions

Risk events in April are intensive

Tariffs announced on April 2: If the policy is severe, Bitcoin may fall below $80,000; if some industries are exempted, it may rebound to $85,000;

Non-agricultural data on April 5: If new jobs are less than 150,000, expectations of interest rate cuts may be strengthened to promote a rebound in the crypto market;

Long-term trends and investment logic

Bitcoin strategic configuration: Galaxy Research predicts BTC’s 2025 target of $185,000, and recommends regular investment in the range of $78,000-82,000, with a stop loss set at $77,500;

RWA and compliance opportunities: Prioritize the layout of leading projects such as Ondo (ONDO), Maple (SYRUP), and beware of token unlocking selling pressure (such as ONDO unlocks 1.94 billion yuan each year in the next four years);

Hedging strategy: Buy BTC put options (exercise price $75,000), and allocate 20%-30% stablecoins (USDC, DAI) to deal with extreme fluctuations;

Conclusion: Finding structural opportunities in uncertainty

The crypto market in 2025 is undergoing multiple tests of macro policies, technological innovation and capital game. Although the short-term fluctuations are severe, RWA compliance, Layer2 upgrade and institutional ETF inflows are still the main lines of the long-term. Investors need to abandon FOMO sentiment and seize the value anchor under the coexistence of "crisis".

——This article does not contain any investment advice, investment should be cautious