Playing with Binance Alpha, short-term gaming or long-term price investing?

Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

Since the launch of Binance Alpha on December 18, Binance has listed a total of 38 tokens. In the first phase, most of the tokens listed were ultra-high market value tokens, so the increase was not significant; while in the fifth phase, WHALES had a very high market value. Small and thus sharp rise. So how to invest?

In this article we will answer several questions through detailed data:

• What is the short-term effect of currency listing?

• What is the mid- to long-term effect of currency listing?

• Do different chains have different rise and fall patterns?

• Is there a connection between the currency listing effect and market capitalization?

Data at a glance

The 5-minute rise and fall, the 1-hour rise and fall, and the cumulative rise and fall since launch of Binance Alpha's sixth phase and 38 tokens are shown in the table below. All price data are from the TradingView 5-minute K-line chart; the market value is the circulating market value. , from CoinGecko.

In order to objectively compare whether the cumulative rise and fall outperforms the entire market, this article selects three tokens as reference objects, namely arc on Solana, VIRTUAL on Base, and BTC. (Odaily note: PSTAKE failed to find a trading pair with sufficient liquidity, and the price fluctuated very much, so it is omitted here.)

What is the short-term effect of currency listing?

From the table above, we can see that the 5-minute average price increases and decreases from the first to the sixth period are all positive, which are 14%, 23%, 18%, 5%, 22% and 0% respectively. It can be seen that Binance Alpha also has a short-term currency listing effect, but it is definitely far behind Binance. For reference, the average 5-minute listing effect of Moonshot is about 30%, which is relatively close.

However, further analysis shows that the short-term increase is mainly contributed by one or two outstanding tokens, and the increase of most tokens is negligible.

The picture below is a histogram of increases and decreases in three time periods. It can be clearly seen that a few bars in the red part (5-minute increase) are very prominent, but most of the increases are very small.

What is the mid- to long-term effect of currency listing?

Taking the 1-hour closing price as the reference object, it can be seen from the table that most tokens still maintain positive gains one hour after being listed (the green column is above the 0 axis).

Considering users who are not buying fast enough, compare the one-hour closing price with the 5-minute closing price (the green column is lower than the red column, indicating a relative decline), and the relative rise and fall of the six periods can be obtained as -10%, -7%, 3 %, -3%, 4%, 4%. This means that if you are slow to buy, you will be trapped in the medium term.

How does it perform over the long term? It is obvious from the blue bars in the figure that after listing on Binance Alpha, the long-term gains of these tokens are significantly better than the short-term gains. For most users, it is more suitable to investigate who are high-quality projects after going online, and then call back to buy lows and wait for long-term gains.

Is the long-term increase caused by the overall upward trend of the crypto market, or is there indeed an influence from the platform? Through the three control groups of arc, VIRTUAL and BTC, we can see that the market was in a downward range when the first three batches were launched, but the tokens that were launched still had positive growth. Therefore, overall, listing Binance ALpha is indeed a long-term positive for the coin.

Are there different rules for the rise and fall of different chains?

Organized by chain, the data form and histogram are as follows. The differences between the chains are very obvious. In terms of 5-minute rise and fall, Ethereum is clearly ahead, while Base is the weakest. In terms of long-term rise, Solana is far ahead, and there is not much difference between the other three chains.

The data of each token of the Solana chain is as follows. Overall, there is not much difference in the rise and fall in 5 minutes and 1 hour, but the long-term rise is far ahead. It may be the most suitable chain to participate in Binance Alpha.

Ethereum data is shown below. The difference between 5 minutes and 1 hour is much larger than that of Solana. The table shows that the average increase in 5 minutes is 24% and the average increase in 1 hour is 17%. However, the cumulative increase since its launch is only 24%. Ethereum needs to pay a very high gas cost to grab a short-term advantageous position, but the overall increase is not large, so the value of participation is currently the smallest.

BNB Chain data is shown in the figure below. The difference between the 5-minute and 1-hour rise and fall has further expanded, but it can be seen that the coins with the best long-term gains (purple columns) are all tokens with a small 1-hour rise.

Base data is shown below. The main contributors to the increase are LUNA and ODOS. The sample size is small, and it is difficult to clarify the underlying pattern.

Is there a connection between the currency listing effect and market

capitalization?

In ascending order of market value, the data for each period is shown in the figure below. It can be clearly seen that the tokens with the most obvious short-term gains are all small-market tokens, but they also fell the most within one hour. Long-term growth has no obvious relationship with market capitalization.