PA Daily | Pantera Capital CEO predicts August 2025 as the peak of this cycle; Vitalik donates 10 million baht to Moo Deng’s zoo
Reprinted from panewslab
12/26/2024·4MToday’s news tips:
BGB breaks through $6.2 and continues to hit record highs
Pantera Capital CEO predicts Bitcoin bull cycle will peak in August 2025
BonkDAO plans to destroy 1.69 trillion BONK, worth approximately US$54.52 million
Animoca Brands: No official tokens or NFTs released
Regulation/Macro
Japan’s government responds to questions about Bitcoin reserves, showing it remains cautious
According to Coinpost, the Japanese government recently responded to a question from Senator Hamada Satoshi about understanding the dynamics of the United States and other countries promoting Bitcoin reserves. The response, issued in the name of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, clarified the government’s stance on holding crypto assets as reserves. The Japanese government stated that it currently has no knowledge of these countries’ Bitcoin reserve plans because these plans are still in the discussion stage and “it is difficult for the government to express its position.” Furthermore, according to the legal framework, crypto-assets do not fall under the category of foreign exchange, and foreign exchange reserves are intended to stabilize foreign currency assets and bond markets. Replies repeatedly emphasized that the management of foreign exchange reserves primarily ensures security and liquidity, indicating recognition that the volatility of crypto-assets (such as Bitcoin) is inconsistent with the current system. Ishiba’s response shows that as discussions advance in Japan and abroad about incorporating crypto assets into the national reserve strategy, the country’s government remains cautious.
According to Blockworks, starting next year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will temporarily reduce the size of its team of commissioners, waiting for the Senate to approve the nomination of presidential candidate Donald Trump. During this period, only Republican commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda will continue to serve after taking office. According to Peirce, with the departure of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, the agency’s stance on the encryption industry will change significantly. At the Blockchain Association Policy Summit earlier this month, Peirce said: “We have powerful tools and have been leaning towards enforcement. I think when you see new committee membership changes and composition changes, , the type of case may also change accordingly.” Uyeda pointed out that due to the special nature of federal agencies, most policy discussions occur in closed meetings, explaining: “The Administrative Procedure Act allows the public to express opinions on regulations. , thus ensuring transparency.” However, when SEC staff issues guidance that is inconsistent with SEC rules (as in the SAB 121 case), the public does not have an opportunity to comment. In the case of SAB 121, both houses of Congress attempted to overturn policies requiring digital asset custodians to report liabilities and “corresponding assets,” but President Biden ultimately vetoed the resolution. Uyeda hopes the SEC will increase opportunities for the public to express their opinions. Peirce emphasized that the SEC has gone a long way on this road and it is not easy to change. Addressing the crypto industry directly, she said: “It’s going to take a lot of hard work on our part and yours to get back on track, but I believe we can do it.”
According to The Block, multiple crypto trading companies recently reported that over-the-counter (OTC) trading volume has grown rapidly in recent months, with the election results becoming an important driving force. Tim Ogilvie, head of institutional business at Kraken exchange, said: “OTC trading is currently extremely active, and trading volume has surged with price increases.” He revealed that Kraken’s OTC trading volume has increased significantly by 220% year-on-year, and other trading companies have also reported Similar growth. Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at market maker Wintermute, pointed out that the market was relatively calm in the middle of the year, but as the election approached, prices rose and market participants began to actively prepare for the election results. He said that Wintermute has been negotiating cooperation with some customers for many years, and the election results became an opportunity for them to initiate transactions. Likewise, trader Embert Lin of market maker GSR said the company’s trading volume has increased significantly since the election. As Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoin prices rise, projects and investors are significantly more motivated to manage capital and risk at these price points, while also looking for new opportunities to gain exposure to other cryptoassets beyond BTC and ETH. Traders at an over-the-counter trading firm revealed privately that recent trading volumes have easily reached levels seen at the peak of the cryptocurrency market’s popularity in 2021. In addition, Brett Reeves, head of Go Network at cryptocurrency custody company BitGo, noted that the election results were the main driver of the recent surge in transaction volume, with two-thirds of the transaction volume occurring within three months of the election results.
Switzerland-based Hashgraph Group has obtained a fund management license from the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) in the United Arab Emirates, Bitcoin.com reported. Hashgraph Ventures Manager, a unit of Hashgraph Group, has obtained a license allowing it to launch a $100 million Web3 venture capital fund from the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM). Hashgraph Group will contribute $20 million, or 20% of the fund, as seed capital. The fund will focus on investing in startups and established companies within the Hedera ecosystem. Stefan Deiss, co-founder and CEO of Hashgraph Group, said the fund has received widespread support and attention from co-investors, including government agencies, sovereign wealth funds, venture capital funds, family offices and other qualified investors; the group will focus on Invest in companies leveraging the Hedera network and promote collaboration among Web3 companies. The fund will prioritize strategic investments in companies in the Web3 and deep technology fields (developing artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, robotics and quantum computing solutions). Qualifying projects will have the opportunity to participate in the Hashgraph Association’s Entrepreneurship Studio program.
Project news
The administrator of Moo Deng, the Khao Kheow Zoo in Thailand, said on the . We look forward to working with you over the next two years to benefit the Khao Kheow Zoo community and all its visitors.” According to a letter written by Vitalik shared by him: "I am pleased to accept your invitation to become a Moo Deng's adoptive father while growing up, and will donate no less than 10 million baht to the zoo in her name. The funds will be donated in two tranches of 5,000,000 baht each. The first donation will be made on December 26, 2024. The date for the second donation, as well as any additional amounts, will be communicated at a later date, but no later than one year after December 26, 2024.”
Coingecko data shows that the market value of PENGU exceeded US$2.6 billion (currently about US$2.625 billion), surpassing BONK (US$2.443 billion) and becoming the number one Meme coin on the Solana blockchain.
BonkDAO plans to destroy 1.69 trillion BONK, worth approximately US$54.52 million
According to official news, BonkDAO plans to destroy 1.69 trillion BONK, worth approximately US$54.52 million, as part of the community festival event "BURNmas", aiming to increase the scarcity of BONK. The upcoming burn accounts for nearly 1.8% of the total BONK supply (approximately 92.7 trillion coins). Officials stated that these tokens will be destroyed through BonkDAO multi-signature voting.
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, the remaining 10% of the first AI-Pool’s public pre-sale project has not received METAV addresses, and it seems that they were all received eight hours ago. Statistics: A total of 71 addresses paid more than 10 SOL in this pre-sale, with a total donation of 958 SOL (190,000 US dollars), of which the TOP3 excess funds accounted for 82%. The TOP1 payment address HRu6k...eoFCw has sold 109,600 tokens at $0.03218 after receiving the tokens eight hours ago, with a cumulative loss of 556 SOL.
Animoca Brands: No official tokens or NFTs released
Animoca Brands said on the . Please do not interact with this account and remain vigilant. We will provide updated information once the account is restored."
Pump Science: Token economics design has been completed and BIO airdrop activity will be conducted
Pump Science announced on the X platform that the token economics design has been completed and will conduct a BIO airdrop event. Regarding the token economics design: 5% of the supply of tokens issued in the future will be distributed to holders of previous tokens (at the time of migration) who now hold more PS tokens (RIF, URO), New tokens will be acquired in the future; this mechanism will continue as long as there are new issuances (forever). Regarding the BIO airdrop event, BIO Protocol will airdrop BIO to holders of URO and RIF, pending governance approval to connect BIO to Solana, and more airdrops are under consideration. In addition, Pump Science reminds that only tokens in non-custodial wallets will be counted for airdrops. According to the Pump Science Token Economics Lite white paper, its key elements are as follows: ① Custom binding curve: Each token issuance starts with a custom binding curve, which is the same parameter used on pump.fun. The bonding curve ensures that the token starts with an initial market cap of approximately $5,000. As liquidity increases, the price rises along the binding curve, and when liquidity reaches 85 SOL, liquidity will migrate to the automated market maker Meteora. ② Liquidity migration: When 85 SOL liquidity is reached: 82 SOL is migrated to Meteora’s constant product liquidity pool (LP); 3 SOL is allocated to the first research experiment to ensure immediate financial impact. ③Anti-bot measures: To prevent bots from seizing the early token supply without relying on whitelists or secondary token purchases, the bonding curve transaction fees are set extremely high at the beginning. These fees will decrease over time, providing users with an opportunity to compete fairly with bots and obtain tokens at a reasonable price. ④Token issuance: A total of 800 million tokens will be issued along the binding curve; when migrating to the liquidity pool, 150 million tokens and 82 SOL will be transferred to the liquidity pool; approximately 50 million tokens will be airdropped to previously issued pumps in proportion For holders of .science tokens (URO, RIF, etc.), airdrop allocations are based on the time-weighted average value of each wallet’s holdings during the specified time period. ⑤Airdrop mechanism: Holders of previously issued pump.science tokens will receive airdrops for future token issuances. The relative value of each wallet’s holdings determines distribution, thus incentivizing long-term participation in the token issuance to obtain future airdrop distributions. ⑥ Funding research through liquidity pool fees: Research funds come from liquidity pool fees generated from trading activities; the migrated liquidity is locked in the Meteora pool, but the liquidity pool tokens will not be destroyed; the liquidity pool tokens will Claim rights are granted to pump.science, allowing the platform to fund research using liquidity pool fees.
point of view
Pantera Capital CEO predicts Bitcoin bull cycle will peak in August 2025
As reported by Cryptodnes, Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead predicted that the next bull cycle in the cryptocurrency market will peak in 2025. On the Bankless podcast, he elaborated on the basis for this prediction: Bitcoin follows a four-year halving cycle, in which miner rewards are cut in half, resulting in a reduction in supply, and Bitcoin prices have historically surged before and after these events. The last halving occurred in April 2024, and Morehead predicts that Bitcoin will reach a cycle peak in August 2025 based on historical trends. He emphasized that although current market conditions are relatively mild, the upcoming upward trend is still worth looking forward to. Morehead said: "The outlook for 2025 is very optimistic, not only because of the halving event, but also because of the political and macroeconomic factors that coincide with the development of cryptocurrencies." He predicted that the price of Bitcoin at its peak would be $117,000, which is higher than the current price. The price is 18% higher. He further pointed out that historical data shows that the impact of halving events usually begins to be felt 400 days ago, while the peak occurs approximately 480 days later. Looking back to 2022, when Bitcoin was trading at $17,000, Pantera Capital accurately predicted that it would reach $28,000 before the halving event. Today, Morehead is confident in his prediction of Bitcoin reaching $117,000 by August 2025.
important data
According to iChainfo monitoring, 2 hours ago, the 30th address on the Bitcoin rich list (starting with 3DR2iG) transferred 11,999 BTC (approximately US$1.19 billion). Currently, this address still holds 15,357 BTC (approximately US$1.51 billion). .
According to Lokonchain monitoring, more than two months ago, a certain address spent $8,600 to purchase GAME and CONVO, transferred them to a new wallet, set them up and then forgot about them. Today, these GAMEs and CONVOs are worth over $29 million.
BGB breaks through $6.2 and continues to hit record highs
According to Bitget market data, BGB exceeded $6.2, rising 24.53% in 24 hours, continuing to hit a record high.
Binance Bitcoin reserves have fallen below 570,000 BTC, the lowest level since January
According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost pointed out in an analysis report on December 25 that Binance’s Bitcoin price recently fell to $98,990, and the reserve has fallen below 570,000, the lowest level since January this year. This change usually means that investors are actively moving Bitcoin to cold wallets, showing optimism about the long-term price outlook. Looking back at the beginning of this year, Binance’s Bitcoin reserves fell to a similar level in January, and within the next two months, the price of Bitcoin surged to a record high of $73,679 on March 13. Darkfost emphasized: “The emergence of a withdrawal wave is often a signal that positive market momentum is forming.”
According to OnchainLens monitoring, multiple open positions of a certain HyperLiquid whale are facing huge floating losses of approximately US$12 million. The following are the details of some of the largest losses: ① ⑥ ADA: -$644,000; ⑦ DGE: -$537,000. The whale mainly opened short positions rather than long positions, and while some were profitable, these profits were not enough to offset the losses.
According to on-chain analyst Ember’s monitoring, Taiwanese singer Huang Licheng (machi big brother) transferred 250,000 CREAM (approximately $4.05 million) to Binance 3 hours ago. After Huang Licheng redeemed 498,000 CREAM from pledges 3 months ago, he has transferred 349,000 CREAM ($5.8 million) to Binance, which is 12% of the total CREAM supply (2.92 million) %.
According to Spot On Chain monitoring, an Ethereum ICO whale deposited 4,160 ETH (approximately $14.5 million) into Kraken 3 hours ago. It is worth noting that the whale obtained 20,000 ETH ($62,000 at the time) in the genesis block in July 2015, staked it to receive rewards, and often sold during peak periods. The whale still has approximately 7,043 ETH (approximately $24.6 million) staked.
Token Terminal data shows that monthly trading volumes for BTC and SOL have reached record highs, while ETH is still down about 50% from its peak in 2021. In November 2024, the transaction volumes of BTC, ETH and SOL were US$2.2 trillion, US$1.1 trillion and US$243 billion respectively.
According to The Block, Runes’ share of transactions on the Bitcoin network has fallen to a new low, accounting for only 1.67% of daily transaction volume, in sharp contrast to its dominance between April and November, when Runes’ trading volume typically accounts for more than 50% of Bitcoin’s daily trading volume. Meanwhile, Runes’ daily transaction fees remain below $250,000, showing a significant reduction in network activity. The change coincides with broader market dynamics and shifts in investor interest. As the price of Bitcoin fluctuates, attention begins to shift away from high-risk experimental Bitcoin-based protocols such as Runes and Ordinals. At the same time, other cryptocurrency areas such as artificial intelligence agents, meme coins, and Ethereum NFTs are gradually taking market share, which may lead to waning investor interest in Bitcoin-based token protocols. Data suggests that the Runes ecosystem may be experiencing a cooling down. Its network share dropped sharply from more than 50% to less than 10%, marking a significant change in Bitcoin network usage patterns. This trend may reflect a shift in speculative interest in the market, with investors looking to other cryptocurrencies.
As reported by Cryptoslate, according to data from CryptoQuant, the demand for Bitcoin accumulation addresses increased significantly during December. As of December 23, these investors had a net increase of 225,280 BTC, a monthly increase of 82.6%. At the same time, total sell-side liquidity (i.e. the amount of Bitcoin available for sale) on exchanges and ETFs fell by approximately 590,000 BTC. It is worth noting that this relief of selling pressure is closely related to the sharp decrease of 520,000 Bitcoins in the number of Bitcoins ready for sale between December 22 and 23. The report also pointed out that the supply of Bitcoins at OTC counters that handle large transactions has dropped from 421,000 to 403,000, showing that investor demand is effectively digesting the selling pressure. Additionally, the liquid-to-stock ratio fell to 5.5 months from 12 months in December, further evidence that current supply is meeting investor demand at an accelerated pace. CryptoQuant data also revealed that as of December 23, “whale” addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC had sold nearly 8,600 BTC this month. However, this supply pressure was absorbed by new investors, with the number of short-term holders increasing by 3% in the past week. Over the past year, short-term holders have held a cumulative 641,789 BTC, with total holdings reaching 3.81 million BTC, only 70,000 BTC below the all-time high on December 15. Although Bitcoin has corrected 14.2% since reaching a record high of $108,000 on December 17, it is still in line with analysts’ predictions that it will continue to rise after regaining calm. However, CryptoQuant community analyst Onatt reminded investors to remain cautious as USDT supply on exchanges is decreasing while Bitcoin supply has increased slightly. This trend may not signal a long-term bearish phase, but it does indicate the possibility of further downside risks in the coming days.
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