OSL trading moment: market long and short signals intertwined, institutions show signs of accumulation

1. Market Observation

Keywords: DOOD, ETH, BTC

The cryptocurrency market has shown a diversified development trend recently. In terms of institutional investment, U.S. retailer GameStop is considering including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on its balance sheet, while JPMorgan Chase has increased its Bitcoin holdings by 69%, highlighting institutional investors' strong interest in crypto assets. Thanks to Bitcoin’s strong performance and a recovery in retail trading, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase performed well in the fourth quarter.

However, the market also faces some challenges. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his firm stance on quantitative austerity, raising market concerns. The Ethereum market also fluctuated, with a big player selling 20,000 ETH worth $52.84 million on the Kr Short Exchange. But it is worth noting that the Ethereum Foundation recently allocated $120 million worth of ETH tokens to DeFi lending protocols Aave, Spark and Compound, showing continued support for ecosystem development.

In terms of Bitcoin price forecast, based on Flag Pole Pattern analysis, the market has shown cautious optimism, and Bitcoin is expected to hit $120,000. However, some traders warned that if market conditions fail to improve, BTC could pull back to $92,000. Nevertheless, the signs of continuous accumulation of institutional investors have always been a positive signal of long-term growth.

At the regulatory and policy level, President Trump expressed his willingness to transfer all Bitcoin mining business to the United States. At the same time, U.S. Customs is delaying the shipment of mining machines from major Chinese suppliers, resulting in supply chain disruptions, echoing calls to promote domestic mining.

Looking ahead, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood maintains his optimistic expectations, believing that Bitcoin prices will exceed $1 million by 2030, citing increased institutional participation and increased likelihood of government adoption. Another positive signal is that Japanese company Metaplanet raises 4 billion yen through zero-interest bonds to increase its holdings of Bitcoin, reflecting the confidence of Asian markets in crypto assets.

2. Key data (as of 09:30 HKT on February 14)

• S&P 500: 6,115.07 points (+3.97% within the year)

• Nasdaq: 19,945.64 points (+3.29% within the year)

• 10-year US Treasury yield: 4.540% (-3.60 basis points within the year)

• US dollar index: 107.02 (-1.34% within the year)

• Bitcoin: $96,605 (+3.42% during the year), daily spot trading volume is $36.84 billion

• Ethereum: USD 2,675.28 (-20.01%), daily spot trading volume is USD 18.72 billion

3.ETF flow direction (EST, February 13)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$183 million

• Ethereum ETF: +$800,000

4. Important date (Hong Kong time)

The core CPI in the United States in January was 21:30 on February 12th)

• Actual: 3.3% / Previous Value: 3.2% / Expected: 3.1%

The United States' January CPI year-on-year (21:30 on February 12)

• Actual: 3.0% / Previous Value: 2.9% / Expected: 2.9%

US PPI month-on-month in January (21:30 on February 13)

• Actual: 0.4% / Previous Value: 0.4% / Expected: 0.3%

Retail sales in the United States in January were month-on-month (21:30 on February 14)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: 0.4% / Expected: -0.1%

5. Hot News

Glassnode: Soft market liquidity and slowing network growth may cause BTC to fall to $92,000

Nexus announces Layer 1 blockchain, test network will be open on February 19

21,000 BTC options and 176,000 ETH options will expire today

Tiktok has been re-launched on the App Store and Google Play Store

Doodles announces launching official token DOOD in Solana, with 68% of the tokens to be allocated to the community

GameStop considers investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

SEC accepts Grayscale XRP Trust Conversion ETF application and starts the review process

Coinbase's full-year revenue reached US$6.6 billion in 2024 and its net profit reached US$2.6 billion.

US SEC has confirmed to accept DOGE ETF application

Zhao Changpeng released photos of his pet dog Broccoli and their stories

Binance Contract will launch IPUSDT1-25 times USDT perpetual contract

OpenSea: OS2 open beta version is now available, SEA tokens will be launched soon

MyShell will be available for airdrops at 22:30 today, and token economics has been released

Lens Chain plans to adopt Aave's stablecoin GHO as native Gas token

Binance Contract will launch B3USDT1-25 times USDT perpetual contract

Mastercard discloses 30% of its transactions in 2024 tokenized

Data: About 1.4 billion USDCs were transferred from Binance to the starting address of 0xad354 from 10 minutes ago

Binance Alpha adds AERO, ONDO, MORPHO, VIRTUAL

20 million TRUMPs were transferred from Binance to unknown wallet within 2 hours, worth approximately US$342 million

Bittensor will be launched to upgrade dTAO to optimize the token issuance mechanism

Coinbase seeks to return to India and is in talks with regulators

Korea Financial Commission plans to open legal person and exchange accounts in three phases

Japanese medical service company SBC Medica announces buying about $6.7 million in Bitcoin

Robinhood Q4 crypto trading volume surges 400% to $70 billion

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