OSL trading moment: Bitcoin has rebounded from lows and may hit $125,000 in the short term

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, ETF, BTC

Robert Kiyosaki recently warned that reckless monetary policy and excessive money printing could trigger a market collapse, and suggested that investors consider Bitcoin, gold, and silver as hedging tools. This view is supported by JPMorgan Chase, which considers Bitcoin and gold to be structurally important in investment portfolios.

Market data shows that although the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF hit a new single-day outflow of US$332.6 million, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF as a whole still recorded a net inflow of approximately US$908 million, reflecting investors' continued confidence in Bitcoin. At the same time, the active layout of the corporate world is also continuing. MicroStrategy plans to expand its Bitcoin holdings through a US$2 billion stock issuance, while JAN3, a technology company backed by Fulgur Ventures and Tether, also received US$5 million in financing and is committed to increasing the popularity of Bitcoin. Ease of use and scalability.

Analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin in 2025, predicting that the price may break through the $100,000 resistance level, with a target price of $125,000. The latest market trends show that Bitcoin has rebounded from a low of $92,000 to $98,950, demonstrating strong market resilience. However, investors still need to be wary of risks, and recent cases in South Africa involving Bitcoin funding of terrorist activities are a reminder of the need to pay attention to compliance issues.

2. Key data (as of January 6, 09:56 HKT)

• S&P 500: 5,942.47 points (+1.03% during the year)

• Nasdaq: 19,621.68 points (+1.61% during the year)

• 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.628% (+5.20 basis points during the year)

• U.S. dollar index: 108.91 (+0.40% during the year)

• Bitcoin: $98,653 (+5.61% for the year), with daily spot trading volume of $17.01 billion

• Ethereum: $3,641.46 (+8.87% for the year), with daily spot trading volume of $12.75 billion

3.ETF flow direction (EST on January 3)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$908.1 million

• Ethereum ETF: +$58.79 million

4. Important dates (Hong Kong time)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (11:00 pm on January 3)

• Actual: 49.3 / Previous: 48.4 / Expected: 48.4

FOMC meeting minutes (03:00 a.m., January 9)

Non-agricultural employment data (21:30 pm on January 10)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 227,000 / Expected: 150,000

Unemployment rate (21:30 pm on January 10)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 4.2% / Expected: 4.2%

5. Hot news

Preview this week | Sonic SVM, Xterio, Seraph will launch TGE; Aptos (APT) unlocks nearly $110 million worth of tokens

Macro outlook this week: The Fed is expected to be more cautious, non-farm payrolls may add fuel to the dollar

OpenAI announces new products for 2025, including agents and AGI

The market value of USD0 surpassed FDUSD and became the fifth largest stablecoin in market value.

Vitalik proposes a hardware-level implementation of a global "soft pause button" to replace the dangerous AGI race

Aave governance proposal plans to link Ethena’s USDe to USDT, causing community concerns

Vitalik: Many encryption techniques can be used in the subject area of ​​d/acc

Artificial Superintelligence Alliance plans to conduct its first 5 million FET token burn on January 10

Caixin: Bitcoin, FAAMNG and Cocoa will be the first tier of global market performance in 2024

Data: APT, MOVE, KAS and other tokens will be unlocked in large amounts next week, of which APT unlocked value is approximately US$110 million.

GSR Markets has deposited 6 million FLOCK tokens into CEX

JPMorgan Chase: A record $78 billion is expected to enter the crypto market in 2024, with 28% of it coming from MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases

Hong Kong media: Local banks in Hong Kong have not yet recognized Bitcoin. Employers using Bitcoin to pay wages may violate the Employment Ordinance.

ICBC International Chief Economist: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 50-75 basis points in 2025

WIntermute and Amber Group may be market makers for VIRTUAL

Base is considering launching tokenized COIN stocks, but is currently in the exploratory stage

The U.S. FDIC discourages member banks from using public blockchains such as Ethereum

MicroStrategy plans to issue up to $2 billion in preferred shares to increase its holdings of Bitcoin

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