OSL trading moment: Bitcoin bull-bear game, Ethereum’s first signs of recovery
Reprinted from panewslab
12/30/2024·4M
1. Market observation
Keywords: ETH, BTC, MiCA
As the end of the year approaches, the market is full of expectations and disagreements about Bitcoin's performance in the next few years. MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor disclosed that the company holds 444,000 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately US$41.4 billion, and hinted that there are further purchase plans. El Salvador continues to increase its holdings, and currently has more than 6,000 Bitcoin reserves worth US$569 million. However, Bitcoin has difficulty maintaining the $100,000 support level, and sideways fluctuations have increased market uncertainty.
Crypto strategists predict that the Bitcoin bull run may end on a high note. Blockware Solutions predicts that Bitcoin could climb to $150,000 to $400,000 by 2025, an optimistic forecast driven by Federal Reserve policy, corporate adoption and Trump’s strategic Bitcoin reserve plan. NBA legend Scottie Pippen is even bolder, pointing to Bitcoin’s next key target price of $1 million. But the market is not all rosy. Some analysts have warned that Bitcoin may undergo a short-term correction and even fall to $76,000. Additionally, Bill Gates continues to be skeptical of Bitcoin, criticizing its lack of productivity and perceived pitfalls as an asset class. Whether the United States will include Bitcoin in its financial reserves remains controversial, and the balance between dollar hegemony and cryptocurrency opportunities remains to be seen.
In the Ethereum market, futures data showed that selling pressure has eased and signs of recovery are emerging. At the same time, after Ethereum transferred 200,000 ETH to Kraken, some old-fashioned encryption wallets that had been dormant for many years became active again, indicating that the encryption market is giving birth to hope amid fluctuations. The world of crypto is still full of unknowns, but it also heralds that the next moment of change is coming.
2. Key data (as of 09:05 HKT on December 30)
- S&P 500: 5,970.84 points (+25.18% during the year)
- Nasdaq: 19,722.03 points (+31.38% during the year)
- 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.626% (+74.51 basis points during the year)
- US dollar index: 108.00 (+6.86% during the year)
- Bitcoin: $934,00.96 (+120.99% for the year), daily spot trading volume of $30.27 billion
- Ethereum: $3,380.99 (+48.19% for the year), daily spot trading volume of $13.93 billion
3.ETF flow direction (EST on December 27)
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Bitcoin ETF: -$297.75 million
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Ethereum ETF: +$47.77 million
4. Important dates (Hong Kong time)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (11:00 pm on January 3)
- Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 48.4% / Expected: 48.3%
5. Hot news
Hamster Kombat will build L2 blockchain on TON chain
FLock announces token economics and airdrop plan: 66.7% allocated to community and ecosystem
Modular blockchain Sophon completes mining migration and opens mainnet mining
El Salvador’s Bitcoin reserves reach 6,000, worth approximately US$569 million
ai16z initiated a proposal to upgrade the token economics model and suggested launching Launchpad
Michael Saylor: 60 companies hold more than 590,000 BTC
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