On-chain predictions in 2025: AI-agent, Pumpfun, Base and Hypeliquid dynamics

Author: defioasis

Editor: Colin Wu

2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development after DeFi Summer, with narrative investment opportunities emerging one after another on the chain. According to the author's observation, as the Everything Can Meme becomes more and more popular and Pump Fun's rapid asset issuance takes a mainstream position, Meme can start from 0, and (without the head CEX being online) the upper limit of the market value of the on-chain space is approximately 1 billion US dollars, for ordinary users, there is already enough profit space on the chain, and the head CEX has become the last link in the exit of investment on the chain. Due to the intensified conflicts between VCCoin and the community, new assets listed on top CEXs often perform poorly; while most of the old coins that have been listed on top CEXs struggle, the team lacks motivation or cannot keep up with market changes, and is in a state of waiting to be unlocked.

This article is mainly based on predictions about on-chain transactions and investments, focusing on on-chain subdivisions. It is only a superficial prediction by the author, and does not serve as any investment advice. It is only for thinking.

1. DEX/CEX monthly Vol ratio will exceed 20% for the first time

According to The Block data, DEX trading volume in December 2024 exceeded US$320 billion, setting a record for a single month, with a year-on-year increase of more than 200%; the DEX/CEX ratio in December 2024 reached 11.64%, compared with 9.55 in December 2023 % has increased, and the DEX/CEX monthly trading volume ratio will reach a maximum of 13.86% in 2024. As the Web3 wallet and other on-chain tools led by CEX continue to be optimized, the adoption of on-chain transactions may be accelerated; the popularity and wealth effect of the Meme track are one of the important factors driving users to migrate from CEX to DEX.

2. The total market value of AI Agents/AI Meme will at least exceed that

of NFT at its peak, and there will be a certain AI Agents token with a market value exceeding US$10 billion.

The combination of AI Agents and tokenization is the fastest-growing narrative in the Crypto market in the second half of 2024, and various types of AI Agents have emerged in endlessly. From the very beginning, the chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) opened the Pandora's box of AI Agents, to ai16z DAO and the Shaw team behind it created the Eliza framework for one-click deployment of AI Agents and their tokens based on a large language model. It only took a few months.

Currently on the market, there are at least several frameworks including ai16z

• Eliza, Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro - Zerepy and Dolion Framework in development and operation, especially ai16z - Eliza and Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework have formed a relatively powerful Ecological moat, various sub-coin AI Agents born from it are rapidly being put into the market.

CoinGecko data shows that the current total market value of AI Agents-related tokens has reached US$12 billion. Among them, Virtuals Protocol’s VIRTUAL plays a role as a trading pair token on the Base network similar to SOL on the Solana network, and AIXBT, GAME and Sub-coins such as LUNA have driven the prosperity of the ecosystem and nurtured the VIRTUAL parent currency, making it the AI ​​Agents-related token with the highest market value at the moment, reaching 35 billion dollars.

3. It is expected that there will be 3–5 launch vertical tracks based on

Pump Fun.

Pump Fun, which serves as a launchpad for quickly deploying tokens at extremely low cost on the Solana network, has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year, with tens of millions of Memecoins being launched from it every day. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have begun to follow suit and launch similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Farcaster-based Clanker on the Base network.

In addition, the Memecoin track is gradually growing, and everything can be meme. The demand for segmentation is getting stronger and stronger, and vertical Pump Fun launch platforms have gradually evolved, such as vvaifu, which focuses on the launch of AI Agents, and Pump Science, which focuses on DeSci. AI Agents has become a tens-billion track, and DeScI has also revealed its potential with Binance's emphasis on DeSci and the listing of the representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this is based on the demand for decentralized currency issuance and rapid issuance of assets under different narratives and fantasies. It is expected that more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve in the future and more subdivided tracks will evolve.

4. At least 5 Base ecological native tokens are listed on Binance spot

As a benchmark, Binance lists perpetual contract transactions for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL and AIXBT, but has not yet launched any native spot of the Base ecosystem. From the perspective of traffic, transaction activities and wealth effects, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, Base's ecological effects will be more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals series and the Farcaster series, of which Virtuals The market value of the system ecosystem has approached US$5 billion, making it the leader among Crypto x AI Agents. Base Ecosystem may be the track with the highest odds for betting on the listing of leading exchanges. It is only a matter of time before the first Base Ecosystem spot is launched on Binance.

As a public chain under the US compliance exchange Coinabse, relying on Coinbase Wallet, it opens the legal currency channel from Base-USDC to bank accounts. With the Trump administration officially taking office, Coinbase and Base will likely be the first exchanges and networks to enjoy dividends if good policies that are beneficial to Crypto are implemented. In addition, with Base head Jesse Pollak officially joining the Coinbase executive team and leading Coinbase Wallet in October, the importance of the Base network should further rise in Coinbase's strategic ambitions.

5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities with a market

capitalization of over 1 billion.

Hyperliquid has greatly increased community participation and user attention through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects. At present, Hyperliuqid's Arbitrum Bridge has invested more than 2 billion US dollars in USDC, which is equivalent to an exchange ranked fifteenth; the total market value of the platform currency HYPE once exceeded 10 billion US dollars, and FDV exceeded 30 billion US dollars.

Judging from the development path of CEX, especially the relatively young CEX, most of them started from contracts with excellent performance and liquidity, but what really forms the brand moat is the wealth effect brought by the exclusive spot. Hyperliquid's HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards bring the possibility of introducing exclusive assets, a capability that previous on-chain exchanges that attempted to move from contracts to spot transactions did not have. The HIP-1 standard enables tokens to be traded directly on-chain, and the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity upon issuance. In the case where it is difficult to list the top CEX and the asking price is too high, launching on Hyperliquid through the auction of spot seats has become a good option. Projects known to have completed auctions on Hyperliquid but have not been officially launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki — Anime (ANIME).

At present, the main market value and trading volume of Hyperliquid spot are concentrated in HYPE, and there are only two others with a market value of more than 100 million US dollars. In the case of HYPE with a high market value, more funds are needed to pull the offer; the platform will join forces with some excellent exclusive projects to jointly create the wealth effect of exclusive assets, which is obviously more cost-effective, and HYPE will eventually Hyperliquid has benefited from increased trading volume and reputation.