On-chain predictions in 2025: AI-agent and Hypeliquid dynamics

2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development after the DeFi Summer, and on-chain narrative investment opportunities continue to emerge. According to the author's observation, as the concept of "everything can be a meme" becomes more and more popular, Pump Fun's rapid asset issuance has become mainstream. Meme can start from 0, and the upper limit of the market value of the on-chain space (without listing top CEX) is about 1 billion US dollars.

For ordinary users, there is enough room for profit on the chain, and the existence of top-level CEX is the last link in the exit of investment on the chain. Due to the intensified conflicts between VCCoin and the community, new assets listed on top CEXs often perform poorly; while most of the old coins listed on top CEXs are in trouble, and the team momentum has not been restored or cannot keep up with market changes, waiting to unlock the flat market status.

This article is mainly based on the prediction of on-chain transactions and investments, with a focus on on-chain interpretation. It is only the author’s superficial prediction and is not intended as any investment advice. It is only for thinking.

1. The monthly trading volume of DEX/CEX will exceed 20% for the first

time

According to Blockchain data, DEX trading volume exceeded US$320 billion in December 2024, completing the highest single month in history, with a year-on- year increase of more than 200% ; DEX/CEX trading volume accounted for 11.64% in December 2024, compared with 9.55 in December 2023 % has increased, and the DEX/CEX trading volume will account for a maximum of 13.86% in 2024. The continuous optimization of on-chain tools such as Web3 wallets, led by CEX, may accelerate the popularity of on-chain transactions; the popularity and wealth effect caused by Meme is one of the important factors driving users to migrate from CEX to DEX.

2. The total market value of AI Agents/AI Meme will at least exceed that

of NFT at its peak, and there will definitely be AI Agents tokens with a market value exceeding US$10 billion.

The combination of AI Agent and tokenization is the narrative of the rapid development of the encryption market in the second half of 2024, with various types of AI Agents emerging in endlessly.

From the chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) that opened the Pandora's Box of AI Agents, to ai16z DAO and the Shaw team behind it to create the Eliza framework for one-click deployment of AI Agents and their tokens based on a large language model, it only took a few months time.

Currently there are at least ai16z-Eliza, Virtuals Protocol-Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro-Zerepy and Dolion Framework on the market. Among them, ai16z - Eliza and Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework have formed a strong ecological moat, among which popular sub-coins derived from AI Agents are rapidly entering the market.

According to CoinGecko data, the total market value of AI Agent-related tokens has reached US$12 billion. Among them, Virtuals Protocol's VIRTUAL plays a role on the Base network similar to the SOL trading pair token on the Solana network, while sub-coins such as AIXBT, GAME, and LUNA stimulate the prosperity of the ecosystem, giving birth to the virtual mother currency and becoming the highest market value of AI Agent-related tokens reached US$3.5 billion.

3. It is expected that there will be 3-5 vertical distribution platforms

based on Pump Fun in the future.

Pump Fun, as a very deep and fast launchpad for deploying tokens on the Solana network, became the most profitable application in cryptocurrency this year, with tens of thousands of Memecoin issued every day.

With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have begun to follow suit and launched similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Farcaster-based Clanker on the Base network.

In addition, Memecoin gradually accumulates, everything can be Meme, and the demand for refinement becomes stronger and stronger. Vertical Pump Fun distribution platforms gradually emerge, such as vvaifu, which focuses on the distribution of AI Agents, and Pump Science, which focuses on DeSci. AI Agents have become a multi-billion dollar interaction, and DeScI is about to see Binance’s focus on DeSci and the listing and manipulation potential of the iconic Bio Protocol. Essentially, it is based on different narratives and imaginations. The demand for decentralized currency issuance and rapid asset issuance is expected to generate more interpretations based on more vertical issuance platforms based on Pump Fun in the future.

4. At least 5 Base ecological tokens are listed on Binance Spot

As a benchmark, Binance has launched perpetual contract trading of DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has not yet launched any spot in the Base ecosystem.

From the perspective of traffic, transaction activity, and wealth effects, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, Base’s ecological effects will be concentrated, represented by the Virtuals and Farcaster systems, of which the Virtuals ecological market value has Approaching $5 billion, leading among Crypto x AI Agents. Base Ecosystem may have the highest probability of being listed on top exchanges, and it is only a matter of time before the first Base Ecosystem spot is listed on Binance.

As a public chain under the American compliance exchange Coinabse, it relies on the Coinbase wallet to open the legal currency channel from Base-USDC to bank accounts.

With the Trump administration officially inaugurated, Coinbase and Base may be the first exchanges and networks to reap dividends if good crypto-friendly policies are hindered.

In addition, with Base head Jesse Pollak officially joining the Coinbase executive team and leading the Coinbase wallet in October, the Base network should receive further attention in Coinbase’s strategic vision.

5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities with a market

capitalization exceeding US$1 billion

Hyperliuqid has greatly increased community participation and user attention through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects. At present, Hyperliuqid's Arbitrum Bridge fund has sunk more than 2 billion US dollars USDC, which is actually the 15th-ranked exchange; the total market value of the platform currency HYPE once exceeded 10 billion US dollars, and FDV exceeded 30 billion US dollars.

Judging from the development path of CEX, especially the relatively young CEX, it mainly started from contracts with excellent performance and liquidity, but the real brand moat is the wealth effect brought by the exclusive spot.

Hyperliquid’s HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards make it possible to introduce proprietary assets, a capability not available on on-chain exchanges that have attempted to move from contracts to spot trading in the past. The HIP-1 standard enables tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity upon issuance.

In the case where the difficulty of listing coins on the leading CEX is high and the asking price is high, listing Hyperliquid through spot seat auction has become a good choice. Projects that are known to have completed auctions on Hyperliquid but have not yet been officially launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki-Anime (ANIME).

At present, the main market value and trading volume of Hyperliquid spot are concentrated in HYPE, and there are only two other projects with a market value of more than 100 million US dollars.

When HYPE's market value is high, more funds are needed to drive the market; the platform joins forces with some excellent exclusive projects to jointly create the wealth effect of exclusive assets, which is obviously higher, and HYPE ultimately benefits from Hyperliquid's transaction volume and Improvement of reputation.