Numerical analysis of Fartcoin’s path to US$1 billion: Institutional early layout may be the driving force, cold fermentation forges MEME’s new king

Author: Frank, PANews

Recently, the MEME market seems to be entering a cooling-off period. As the market and hot money flowed to mainstream coins, MEME coins did not have any particularly outstanding tokens throughout the first half of December. Against this background, a MEME coin called Fartcoin bucked the trend and rose, exceeding US$1 billion on December 18, becoming the king of the AI ​​agent series MEME.

Unlike the previous popular social hot spots such as GOAT and Pnut, Fartcoin’s rise seems to lack celebrities and social hot spots. This absurd cultural core is also difficult for many people to understand. PANews analyzed Fartcoin’s social media popularity and the top 1,000 currency holding addresses, trying to answer how Fartcoin rose from zero to US$1 billion.

Rise derailed by social media buzz

The birth of Fartcoin comes from the same source as GOAT, both from the terminal of truths artificial agent model. During the dialogue between the Goat model and Opus, it was mentioned that Musk likes the sound of farts, so this AI model proposed to issue a name For Fartcoin tokens, a series of promotion methods and gameplay are designed. Fartcoin was thus born on October 18th, slightly later than GOAT (October 11th). Judging from the hot spots of social media attention, Fartcoin has stepped into the hot trend of AI agents. October 18th was the climax of GOAT’s social discussion. People were surprised by GOAT’s crazy trend and turned their attention to it. As a token of the same type, Fartcoin has gained natural attention during this period.

According to cryptohunt.ai data, from the total number of followers, Fartcoin’s official account has only 22,000 followers, while GOAT’s Twitter followers have 214,000. The difference between the two is nearly 10 times. Among them, the main change in Fartcoin’s social media data is that from 3:00 to 11:00 on November 16, the number of Twitter fans doubled, from 7,634 fans to 13,294 fans in an instant. The price change during this time period increased by about 15%, which is not an obvious surge. There is not much discussion about this token on social media, so there is something fishy about the growth of this fan base.

Also, is celebrity effect the main driver of Fartcoin? In fact, few celebrities mentioned Fartcoin in the early days. It was not until the market value exceeded US$300 million that some media began to report it. Marc Andreessen, the founder of the well-known venture capital firm a16z, retweeted a tweet about Fartcoin on December 13. This tweet had 2.5 million views, but the price of the token did not skyrocket.

In terms of related tweets, at 23:43 on December 13, Solana Daily published a post about the top five AI MEME coins that are currently attracting attention, with Fartcoin ranking first. The tweet received 525,000 views, and the price subsequently increased by about 10%, giving it a market value of nearly $800 million. But it’s not exactly media publicity that drove the token’s rise.

In addition, the related account with the most tweets and the highest overall views is DEGEN NEWS. This account reported on the changes in Fartcoin’s market value many times from December 12 to 16. Each tweet received about 150,000 views. Click The number of likes is about 1,000. The content of GOAT’s official account can easily exceed 100,000 views. In contrast, Fartcoin’s discussion on social media can almost be called deserted. Therefore, the main driving force for Fartcoin’s rise may not come from the popularity and discussion on social media.

Sigil Fund may be the real driving force behind

Among the AI ​​tokens with a market value of more than 100 million US dollars, only GOAT and GRIFFAIN were born before Fartcoin. Therefore, Fartcoin has a certain advantage in terms of time. During the development process, Fartcoin’s rise was divided into several waves:

The first wave: From October 18th to October 24th, the market value rose to about 76 million US dollars, and then fell back to about 20 million US dollars.

Second wave: From November 3 to November 22, the market value rose to about US$400 million, and then fell back to about US$160 million.

The third wave: From December 8 to December 18, the market value exceeded US$1 billion, becoming the AI ​​MEME token with the highest market value.

From the above analysis of media popularity, it can be found that during these rising stages, Fartcoin’s social media craze did not appear simultaneously. Therefore, the main promoter of Fartcoin is most likely some major funds.

PANews analyzed the initial purchase and sale transactions of the top 1,000 Fartcoin holding addresses and found that an investment institution was suspected of appearing among the earliest buying addresses.

During the investigation, PANews noticed that the address 4DPxYoJ5DgjvXPUtZdT3CYUZ3EEbSPj4zMNEVFJTd1Ts (hereinafter referred to as: 4DPxY) began to make 700 Fartcoin buying operations in a few days on October 18. A total of US$191,000 was spent to buy 12.02 million Fartcoin tokens.

Among the 4DPxY tokens, 7.4 million came from another address: FEeSRuEDk8ENZbpzXjn4uHPz3LQijbeKRzhqVr5zPSJ9 (hereinafter referred to as: FEeSR). The FEeSR address also used 400 buying operations to acquire a large number of tokens, and finally transferred the tokens to the 4DPxY address.

The Binance deposit address of FEeSR is 4FM7D. The initial funds of this address came from EsqEkirkY6s1RPsb3YaJZcP4APQz77BWmBAVCsbNNhpj (hereinafter referred to as: EsqEki). The EsqEki address was marked as the wallet address of Sigil Fund on social media.

It is reported that Sigil Fund is a fully regulated investor fund focusing on cryptocurrencies, decentralized projects and digital assets. Founded in 2018, it is an all-weather fund run by crypto insiders.

In addition to the address association, MrKvak, the founder of Sigil Fund, has repeatedly expressed his optimism for the AI ​​token MEME on Twitter, and on December 13, he also proactively forwarded a message asking whether Sigil Fund holds US$30 million. Fartcoin tweets.

At this point, we can probably judge that Sigil Fund is most likely Fartcoin’s earliest capital deployment. From a time perspective, the initial purchase time of Sigil Fund was 10-18-2024 11:50:34, which was just 5 hours after Fartcoin went online, and the market value was only about US$2 million. Sigil Fund's initial investment amounted to approximately one-tenth of the market value at the time. As of December 19, Sigil Fund had sold more than $3 million in tokens, and the 4DPxY address still held a balance of $6.09 million in tokens.

In addition, there are some other large addresses that have also used quantitative allocation methods to buy in large quantities in the near future, but I will not list them one by one here.

Dt51tQyWGNGp1eg8MDXK1tukJEDV9JfDE6f5PuBQaoAN

I started buying as early as 08:20:53 on October 18, 2024, spending 3.2 SOL and buying 494,000 pieces. This address is suspected to be the earnings address of a sandwich attack address.

Large investors mostly buy during the trough period, and large investors

have recently entered the market in droves.

Through overall data analysis, we can see that Fartcoin’s main address did not actually enter the market early as PNUT had previously analyzed. Most of the main buying times are concentrated at the beginning of this month. Especially in the past week, large investors have a strong willingness to enter the market.

In addition, we can also see from the entry timing of large players that the peak entry periods of these main players are basically during the period of token correction, such as November 1st to 3rd, 18th to 20th, and December 1st. During these entry peak periods such as the 3rd, the token as a whole pulled back to a low point. We can also see from here that the real smart money may always practice that sentence, others panic and I enter the market.

Looking at the buying costs of these large investors, the average initial buying cost of the top 1,000 addresses holding positions is US$0.48, and the average initial selling cost is US$0.53. Of course, the statistics here are only the first purchase and sale, which does not mean that this is the entire position cost and profit of the large investors. However, judging from this first entry average, Fartcoin’s market value at that time had reached nearly 500 million US dollars. For retail investors, this price range does not seem to be an ideal investment space.

As of press time on December 20, Fartcoin’s highest market value has exceeded US$1.1 billion. Related theme tokens also seem to be beginning to have a radiation effect. On December 19, a gold and silver supporter (boomer) created the MEME coin UFD of "Unicorn Fart Dust" (meaning: viewing cryptocurrency as "fart dust") as a social experiment after hearing the success story of Fartcoin. , he originally intended to prove that cryptocurrency is worthless, but he did not expect that the market value of this token exceeded US$250 million that day. This incident added fuel to the popularity of Fartcoin, and this incident seems to have become an accelerated version of the story of Fartcoin’s rise.

Looking back at the rise of Fartcoin, it seems that we have seen the transformation of MEME coins from being triggered by social hot spots to being mainly driven by capital. For players who are focused on finding angles, such angles seem to be increasingly difficult to find and will become even more difficult. fathom. In general, from being unknown to becoming famous, Fartcoin’s development process seems to revolve around the word “Lapan”. Of course, after the market value reached US$1 billion, Fartcoin finally ushered in the craze of social media, but the craze at this time may no longer mean an opportunity.