Meme is in a low tide and large amounts of unlocking, Solana has run out of "good luck"?

Author | Mu Mu

Produced by｜Plain language blockchain

Because Solana's big market trend is outstanding in this round, many people believe that this bull market is Solana's bull market. Looking at Solana's development history in the past few years, whether it is the wind of joining Wall Street under DeFi Summer, or the life-saving straw that still seized the Meme craze "return of the king" after FTX went bankrupt and fell into trouble, these all make Everyone thinks Solana's fortune is too good.

However, giants like FTX can fall overnight, and Meme also has its own tide and tide. Recently, Meme has obvious signs of "retreat". Coupled with the approaching super large unlock, it can be said that disaster will not be singular. Solana's pressure doubles, its " Good luck" is it really used up?

01. Meme tide

Recently, on-chain data shows that Solana's on-chain transaction volume has dropped rapidly since February, and the number of launches on Meme launches and other related platforms has dropped sharply. All popular projects in Solana's ecological projects have fallen sharply, and various FUD sounds have begun to appear on social platforms.

The original Meme rose in the midst of calls for "anti-VC", "not taking over" and "fair launch". However, after the rise of the Meme boom, various institutions took advantage of the trend and quickly occupied favorable ecological niches. The crypto community quickly discovered that Without continuous injection of funds, Memes that rely solely on fair launches seemed like a flash in the pan, so most people were put into the arms of various institutions and took their plates.

Immediately afterwards, the Presidential Coin, which represents the top celebrity, was born. The Trump family Token first quickly absorbed the liquidity in the market, and then Milai Token appeared and gave a heavy blow. Afterwards, people discovered that there was a trading team behind these celebrity projects, and some were even related to each other. Behind each hot-chasing project, there was an invisible hand controlling it. The encryption community suddenly felt that it was pressed to the ground and repeatedly rubbed. . Some KOLs said bluntly that our crypto community just wants to get out of the circle, not let celebrities outside the circle come in and withdraw money...

In the final analysis, the Meme craze and the bursting of the bubble eventually exposed the "evil" of human nature. The excessive speculation of greedy retail investors can never escape the fate of "taker", which has caused a huge blow to the Meme market and has benefited from it. The Solana ecosystem, which has gained a rapid rise due to the Meme craze, is like a blow. The powerful relationship is self-evident.

02. Large amount unlocked when it comes at an extremely abnormal time

Here, I was still immersed in the sadness of the Meme receding tide. Another desperate news came, "11.2 million SOLs will be unlocked on March 1st." At first, people mistakenly thought that this was an unlocking in the Token economic model plan. This type of unlocking is a planned small-scale unlocking, which has little impact on the market. However, this large-scale unlocking is the second wave of blow brought by FTX after the bankruptcy. Simply put, these 11.2 million SOLs are the FTX liquidation process. part of the token for sale. These tokens set a certain lock-in period (Vesting Schedule) when trading, usually 1-3 years, and end in March 2025, so they enter the circulation market.

After FTX went bankrupt in November 2022, huge SOL held by its affiliate Alameda Research became part of the liquidated assets. It is estimated that FTX/Alameda initially held about 58 million SOLs, accounting for 10%-15% of Solana's total supply at that time. The bankrupt custodian (led by John J. Ray III) then sold the tokens to institutional investors at a discount. It is reported that institutions that bought these tokens at that time include Pantera Capital, Galaxy Digital, Figure Markets and other institutions. Based on the information on X and on-chain data (such as Lookonchain tracking), the market estimates that these tokens will be sold at about US$60-80 per coin (30-40% of the current market price).

Since the 11.2 million SOL-based institutions that are about to be unlocked are purchased at a low cost, the market expects that if there is no one to take over the market and digest it quickly, it is likely to bring huge selling pressure to SOL after unlocking. The current pressure has been given to the current market price and Solana Ecological Community.

03. Have you used up the good use of Solana?

So has the good luck of Solana, which never fails, really used up all the good luck? It seems that no, whether it is the Solana spot ETF that is expected to be passed this year or Trump's series of friendly encryption policies, it can be regarded as a continuation of Solana's good luck.

The Solana spot ETF that may be passed as early as June this year is highly expected. Currently, on well-known prediction platforms, the probability of the Solana ETF passing in 2025 is 84%, while the probability of passing before June 31 is 38%. Judging from the performance of the two spot ETFs, Bitcoin and Ethereum, the current position of Bitcoin spot ETF is more than US$110 billion, while the position of Ethereum spot ETF is more than US$10 billion. Judging from the institutional support rate of Solana, it will at least also With billions of dollars inflows, it can naturally easily cover the 11.2 million unlocked negative news. But the problem is that unlocking is near, and ETF will be at least a few months away.

Trump's series of friendly policies are actually being implemented, which is a friendly regulatory environment for the entire crypto industry. Thanks to the accelerated catalysis of the Meme boom, the Solana ecosystem is already remarkable. At the beginning of 2025, the volume of DEX on the Solana chain once exceeded Ethereum, which successfully passed the stress test, and it has strong users and activity. momentum.

In addition, the growth rate of Solana's developer community is also quite fast. In addition, the iterative upgrade of Solana's future roadmap plan will improve various existing shortcomings in technical solutions. Its ecosystem continues to attract more and more attention, such as Paypal, Franklin Templeton and other top institutions have also joined in the adoption.

04. Summary

Whether the Meme craze is getting colder or large-scale unlocking, these are actually short-term "pain" and are very common in the encryption field. It cannot be concluded that Solana has fallen, not to mention that it has encountered friendly situations when its ecological development is good. The east wind of encrypted supervision is even more beneficial as the number one public chain founded in the United States. As for the longer-term future, wait for more tests brought by time.