Matrixport Market Observation: BTC breaks through $88,000 strongly, decoupling of US stocks and gold goes hand in hand

Last week (April 15 to April 21), BTC showed a volatile consolidation trend during the week due to macroeconomic and policy uncertainty. As risk aversion sentiment rose, the price of BTC rebounded significantly. On the 21st, BTC prices rose simultaneously with the price of gold, and fell back after breaking through the $88,000 resistance level for a short time. However, with the change of market sentiment and the recognition of BTC's safe-haven attributes, BTC gradually stood firm on the 22nd and reached a maximum of $88,465.99, with a maximum volatility during the week of 6.44%. Currently, the BTC price is stable around $88,038.

ETH price has stabilized this week after experiencing a decline in the previous two weeks. The price is currently hovering around $1,500 to $1,600, with a maximum volatility of 7.8% during the week (Data source: Binance Spot, April 22 14:40).

Market Interpretation

On April 21, the U.S. stock market rebounded significantly after the holiday, with the Dow Jones Index closing down 971 points, and the three major indexes all fell by more than 2%. Large tech stocks generally fell, with Tesla down 5.7% and Nvidia down nearly 5%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.405%, the U.S. dollar index fell below 99, and funds flowed to gold, and New York gold futures rose 3%, breaking through $3,400 per ounce.

BTC is strongly decoupling US stocks, "digital gold" narrative heats up, mainstream altcoins rise in sequel

Data shows that the correlation between BTC and stock markets has dropped significantly in the past 10 days. Against the backdrop of continued pullback in US stocks and weakening in the US dollar, BTC rose against the trend, breaking through $88,500, setting a new monthly high, showing a significant decoupling trend from US stocks. In contrast, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply due to trade war concerns, and gold also strongly broke through $3,400 per ounce, showing a general rise in safe-haven assets.

At the same time, mainstream altcoins such as BNB, SOL, and XRP rose simultaneously under the leadership of BTC, continuing the trend of market risk appetite recovery. SOL rose more than 5% in one week, BNB broke through $600, and XRP technology broke through the sideways range, both showing strong momentum for upward momentum.

The Federal Reserve faces triple pressure, policy credibility is shaking, and market risk aversion is heating up

On April 16, the accepted amount of the Fed's fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation fell to $54.772 billion, a new low since 2021, indicating that the market demand for short-term liquidity in the US dollar has dropped rapidly and signs of funding tensions emerged. The Federal Reserve faces triple pressures of declining liquidity, unclear policy path and challenges in independence, which has caused severe market fluctuations.

The next day, Powell publicly stated that inflation may deviate from its target for the rest of the year, and admitted that it lacked modern experience in dealing with policy formulation in the context of extreme tariffs. He added that if the dollar is liquid in short supply, the Fed will provide support to central banks around the world. After the speech was released, US stocks fell across the board, with the S&P 500 falling 1.6%, the Nasdaq falling 2.5%, and the Dow fell more than 1%.

On April 21, the US stock market continued to decline, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by another 971 points. The dollar index fell below 99, gold rose 3% to break above $3,400 per ounce, and funds flowed significantly to safe-haven assets. At the same time, Trump continued to publicly pressure Powell and was exposed to considering his stay or not, which triggered deep concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Market hot spots

US economic expectations are downgraded, recession risk warms

Reuters' latest survey shows that U.S. economic growth expectations have been significantly lowered. GDP forecast for 2025 fell from 2.2% to 1.4% and from 2.0% to 1.5% in 2026. Meanwhile, the probability of the United States falling into a recession in the next year has been raised to 45%, the highest level since December 2023.

The survey also showed that the US CPI inflation expectations in 2025 showed the largest increase since March 2023, reflecting the intensified market concerns about the risk of stagflation. The slowdown in growth and upward inflation will make the monetary policy space more complex, and the market may further tend to allocate safe-haven assets.

SEC will hold a roundtable for crypto-hosting, and compliance pressure continues to rise

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it will hold its third roundtable for crypto policy on April 25, with the core topics focusing on the issue of crypto asset custody. The meeting will set up two special groups to discuss the custody compliance framework of brokers and wallet custody, as well as investment advisors and fund institutions.

This meeting sent out a signal that supervision will continue to advance, especially in the context of the key impact of the custody process on institutional entry. The analysis pointed out that the SEC's focus on custody issues may indicate that the compliance requirements for exchanges and custody service providers will be further refined in the future, and the operational space of institutional investors may be limited.

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