Matrixport Investment Research: US$90,000 may be a key price indicator for judging the future trend of BTC

The recent wave of hedge funds selling BTC may be approaching its end. Financing and benchmark rates have both declined in the past few weeks, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) BTC open interest has dropped significantly. The market selling pressure has now basically been exhausted, and BTC is in the consolidation stage.

The Federal Reserve becomes an important factor in determining the

direction of BTC

The BTC’s top-top process began with stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data in early December 2024, which initially weakened the altcoin momentum. BTC then peaked at the hawkish Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting in mid-December. Although BTC tried to rebound again before Trump took office, the collapse of the Trump meme coin launched a few days ago caused the entire Meme coin bull market to recede. This series of events has led to the formation of tops of altcoins, BTC and meme coins, pushing BTC into the current consolidation phase. The Fed has now become a key factor in determining whether BTC will break through this range or face deeper adjustments.

While this week’s Fed meeting may not be mild enough to drive a big rebound in BTC and altcoins, it does mark a slight turn. Chairman Powell said the Fed would "ignore" recent rise in inflation expectations and did not believe that Trump tariffs would lead to continued high inflation. The Fed will take a wait-and-see attitude, rather than responding to these inflationary pressures by hiking interest rates. Although growth expectations have been lowered, the Fed will tolerate temporary inflation risks. Combined with the slowdown in quantitative austerity, the tone of this conference could be interpreted as moderate doves.

BTC big players have become the dominant group in the market, and BTC's

structural pressure-bearing capacity has increased

Since Trump was elected in November 2024, there has been a clear trend: wallets with 100 to 1,000 BTC (worth around $8 million to $80 million) have become the dominant group. This may reflect the long-term accumulation of BTC by family offices and wealth management agencies, especially as regulatory clarity increases. This structural shift is one of the key reasons why we no longer expect a 70-80% retracement in extreme cases in the past BTC cycle.

Bitcoin prices have been below its 21-week moving average for the past three weeks. Combining the 21-week moving average and short-term holder indicators, $90,000 can be viewed as a key turning point, which may determine whether BTC continues to be in a bull or bear market.

Disclaimer: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can have great risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consulting a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided on this content. ****