Macro research report on the crypto market: From tariffs to strategic reserves of crypto assets, the crypto order in the Trump era

Introduction: A new order of the cryptocurrency market in the Trump era

In 2025, the global financial market ushered in new changes. Trump's return to the White House has continued his consistent economic nationalist policy, and policies such as imposing tariffs, reshaping supply chains, and strengthening the hegemony of the US dollar have been introduced one after another. At the same time, with the growing US fiscal deficit, the intensification of global “de-dollarization” trends, and the rise of the crypto asset market on a global scale, the Trump administration’s attitude towards cryptocurrencies is undergoing significant changes. Against this background, the concept of strategic reserves of crypto assets has gradually surfaced and has become the focus of market attention. This report will delve into the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy on global financial markets and how its possible strategic reserve plan for crypto assets affects the market performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. In addition, we will also analyze possible changes in regulatory policies, adjustments to asset allocation strategies of institutional investors, and the future development direction of the overall crypto market.

1. Macro background of Trump's economic policy and crypto market

**1.1 Tariff Policy: Reshaping the Global Economic Order and Impact of

the Capital Market**

Trump's economic policy has always been centered on "America First". This strategy not only affects the domestic economic structure of the United States, but also profoundly changes the operating model of the global capital market and financial system. The Trump administration has implemented a series of major economic policies between 2017 and 2021, including large-scale tax cuts, tough trade wars, pressure on the Federal Reserve and regulation of US dollar liquidity. These policies have driven the growth of the U.S. economy in the short term, but have also led to long-term rising fiscal deficits and instability in the international economy. In 2025, after Trump was re-elected, the market generally expects that his administration will continue or even strengthen past economic policies, especially in terms of tariff policies, dollar strategy, fiscal stimulus, regulatory environment, and global capital flows, which will have a profound impact on the crypto market.

Against the backdrop of the increasingly decentralized global economic system, the crypto market has gradually become an important part of the international financial system. Mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are not only regarded as investment targets, but also considered by some countries and institutions as assets that hedge against the risks of the US dollar. The application of stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) in international trade settlement is also increasing, promoting the process of digitalization of the US dollar. The Trump administration's economic policies will have a profound impact on these trends. Its tariff policies may accelerate the allocation of global funds to crypto assets such as Bitcoin. The management of US dollar liquidity will affect the supply of funds in the crypto market. The US regulatory policies will determine the legitimacy and development space of the crypto market. The strategic reserve plan for crypto assets that Trump may promote is more likely to trigger changes in the global market.

One of the core economic policies of the Trump administration is its extremely aggressive trade policy. Between 2018 and 2019, the outbreak of the US-China trade war led to the reconstruction of global supply chains and major changes in capital flows. Faced with the new economic situation in 2025, Trump is likely to restart the trade war, impose tariffs on economies such as China, the EU, and Japan, and try to re-establish the competitiveness of the United States' manufacturing industry through external pressure. The direct consequence of this policy will be the rise in uncertainty in the international capital markets, with global investors seeking safe-haven assets, and decentralized assets such as Bitcoin may become new hedging tools in this environment. In fact, during the fiercest period of the trade war in 2019, the price of Bitcoin soared from $3,000 to $13,000. The market generally believes that while avoiding traditional market risks, capital will flow into the crypto market. The escalation of the trade war in 2025 may once again drive similar capital flow trends, especially in the context of a damaged dollar credit system, Bitcoin may be more attractive.

In addition to the impact of the trade war on the global capital market, the Trump administration's fiscal policy is also an important factor affecting the crypto market. Trump once implemented a large-scale tax cut in 2017, lowering corporate tax rates and increasing the government's fiscal deficit. In 2025, Trump may take similar measures to stimulate U.S. economic growth, including further corporate tax cuts, large-scale infrastructure investments, and increased military spending. These policies may boost the U.S. economy in the short term, but will also intensify fiscal deficits and put pressure on the dollar's credit system. Increased fiscal deficits usually mean that governments need to fill the funding gap through bond issuance or monetary easing policies, and if the market expects the Fed to resume quantitative easing (QE) in the future, then market liquidity will increase, which often serves as a positive for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. In fact, during the 2020-2021 period, the ultra-loose monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve is one of the important driving forces of the Bitcoin bull market. Therefore, if the Trump administration promotes a new round of fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve is forced to cooperate to relax monetary policy to a certain extent, the market may usher in a new round of rising cycle of crypto assets.

Cyclical correlation between USD 1.2 liquidity and crypto market

As a global reserve currency, the dollar's status may change under the Trump administration's policies. During his first term, Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with the strong dollar many times, believing that the overvaluation of the dollar has damaged the competitiveness of the US manufacturing industry. In 2025, the Trump administration may take steps to push the dollar to depreciate to boost exports and reduce the trade deficit. If the trend of depreciation of the dollar is established, global investors may seek other assets to hedge the risk of depreciation of the dollar, and Bitcoin, gold and other safe-haven assets may become new directions for capital inflows. Especially globally, some countries have begun to explore the process of de-dollarization. For example, Russia and China have reduced their dependence on the US dollar in international trade, while Middle Eastern countries are also trying to use the RMB or other currencies for oil settlement. If the Trump administration’s policies accelerate the de-dollarization process, then global capital’s demand for decentralized assets such as Bitcoin may further increase, pushing the crypto market into a new stage of development.

Cryptocurrency regulatory policies in the United States may usher in major changes in the Trump era. Trump's attitude towards crypto assets during his first term was vague. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has repeatedly expressed his hope to strengthen supervision of the crypto market to prevent assets such as Bitcoin from being used for illegal transactions. However, during the 2024 campaign, Trump and his allies began to show a more positive attitude towards crypto assets, believing that Bitcoin and blockchain technology could bring new financial innovation and economic growth opportunities to the United States. In 2025, the Trump administration may adjust the U.S. crypto regulatory framework, such as reducing the tax burden on crypto assets, relaxing legal restrictions on crypto trading and investment, and supporting the further development of financial products such as Bitcoin ETFs. If these policies are implemented, they will bring huge growth opportunities to the US crypto market, and will also have a demonstration effect on the global market, prompting other countries to adjust their attitude towards the crypto market.

It is worth noting that the Trump administration may promote the establishment of a "crypto asset strategic reserve plan" to include crypto assets such as Bitcoin into a national reserve system. The proposal of this policy may be based on multiple factors, including combating US dollar credit risks, seizing the dominance of the global crypto market, and ensuring the United States' leading position in the field of digital assets in international competition. If the U.S. government decides to hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, then Bitcoin will usher in unprecedented market recognition and may become an important part of the global financial system. The impact of this policy will far exceed the entry of any ETF or institutional investment, which means that the sovereign state level faces the formal recognition of Bitcoin and may trigger follow-up from other countries around the world.

1.3 Reconfiguration of crypto market by institutional investors

In the past few years, institutional investors' acceptance of crypto assets has gradually increased. With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the entry of large financial institutions, crypto assets have gradually become part of traditional investment portfolios. If the Trump administration advances strategic reserves of crypto assets and relaxes restrictions on institutional investors holding crypto assets, then the market structure will undergo significant changes. In the long run, this may allow mainstream assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum to enter more national and institutional investment portfolios, promoting further market maturation.

Overall, the Trump administration's economic policies will have a profound impact on the crypto market. The trade war could accelerate capital flows to crypto assets, fiscal deficits and depreciation of the dollar could drive up demand for bitcoin, and adjustments to the regulatory environment could further boost the development of the U.S. crypto market. If the Trump administration ultimately promotes the strategic reserve plan for crypto assets, then Bitcoin may usher in historic institutional recognition and completely change the pattern of the global financial system. In this process, the market needs to closely monitor the specific policy trends of the Trump administration and the responses of global capital markets to these policies to grasp the future development opportunities of the crypto market.

2. Strategic reserves of crypto assets: policy background and potential

impact

**2.1 Policy background of the US government 's promotion of strategic

reserves of crypto assets**

After the Trump administration came to power again in 2025, the core of its economic policy remains centered around "U.S. first", which not only means a reexamination of the dollar's global reserve currency status, but may also mean that the government begins to consider diversifying some national reserves to hedge the dollar's credit risks. For a long time, the US dollar, as the world's major reserve currency, has given the United States an unparalleled influence in the global financial system. However, in recent years, the dollar's reserve position is being challenged with rising U.S. debt levels, expanding fiscal deficits, adjusting interest rate policies, and countries' doubts about the dominance of the dollar.

On the one hand, the U.S. government's fiscal deficit issue has become the focus of global market attention. Since 2020, the level of government debt in the United States has continued to soar, and by the end of 2024, U.S. Treasury bonds have exceeded $34 trillion and are still growing rapidly. This weakened market confidence in the long-term value of the US dollar, prompting countries to begin exploring reserve assets outside the US dollar. After the Trump administration came to power, the U.S. fiscal deficit problem may further worsen in order to further promote fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment. If the market expects the risk of US dollar depreciation to increase, global central banks may accelerate their adjustment of their reserve asset allocation, and decentralized assets such as Bitcoin may become alternatives beyond the US dollar.

On the other hand, the acceleration of the de-dollarization process has also made the US government need to rethink how to maintain its own financial hegemony. In recent years, many countries around the world have reduced their dependence on the US dollar in international trade settlement. For example, trade between Russia and China is gradually shifting to local currency settlement, and the UAE, India and other countries are also exploring the use of RMB or other currencies for oil trade settlement. This trend weakens the dollar's global influence, making it necessary for the U.S. government to take new measures to ensure its dominance in the global financial system. If the Trump administration regards crypto-asset strategic reserves as a new global financial strategic tool, then Bitcoin may be officially incorporated into the official U.S. reserve system as a potential weapon to hedge against the de-dollarization of the global financial system.

In addition, the Trump administration's attitude towards the cryptocurrency market is also gradually changing. Although Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin in 2019, saying it was "based on air and had no real value", his position changed significantly during the 2024 campaign. On the one hand, Trump's team has gradually realized the potential of crypto assets in the future financial system and is trying to win support from the crypto industry; on the other hand, American institutional investors have significantly increased their holdings of Bitcoin in the past few years. Institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity have launched Bitcoin spot ETFs and attracted billions of dollars inflows. Against this backdrop, the U.S. government may realize that Bitcoin is no longer a marginalized asset class, but is becoming an important part of the global financial system. If the U.S. government wants to dominate this market, then establishing a "strategic reserve of crypto assets" will be a strategic choice in its national interests.

2.2 Potential Impact of Strategic Reserves of Crypto Assets

First, this policy may greatly change the market's perception of Bitcoin's value and push Bitcoin prices into a completely new valuation system. The current market's main pricing logic for Bitcoin is still based on its scarcity (21 million total supply), inflation hedging attributes, and its role in the digital economy. However, if the U.S. government formally incorporates Bitcoin into its national reserves, it means that Bitcoin will transform from an "alternative asset" to a "national reserve asset", and its market perception will undergo essential changes. Gold has been an important part of global central bank reserves over the past few decades, and if Bitcoin is included in the same system, its market valuation may experience exponential growth. Currently, the global gold market size is about US$13 trillion, while the total market value of the Bitcoin market is only about US$1 trillion. If Bitcoin is given a gold-like reserve function, its market value may reach at least 30-50% of the gold market, that is, more than 4-6 trillion US dollars, and the corresponding Bitcoin price may be above 200,000 US dollars. This means that the US government's policy decisions will directly affect the long-term value of Bitcoin and may trigger a new bull market.

Secondly, the implementation of this policy will have a subtle impact on the US dollar's global reserve currency status. Traditionally, the reason why the US dollar can become the world's major reserve currency is mainly due to the strength of the US economy, the global coverage of US dollar liquidity, and the stability of US dollar-denominated assets (such as US bonds). However, if the U.S. government begins to include Bitcoin in its reserves, this could send a signal to the market that the U.S. government itself is also considering the U.S. credit risk and attempting to hedge it through Bitcoin. This could exacerbate market concerns about the long-term stability of the dollar and prompt other countries to start adjusting their reserve structures, pushing more central banks to hold Bitcoin. Once this trend is formed, it may weaken the global dominance of the US dollar and accelerate the multipolarization process of the global financial system.

At the same time, the US government's holding of Bitcoin may also have an impact on the global geopolitical landscape. At present, some countries are already trying to include Bitcoin in their national financial strategies. For example, El Salvador became the first country in the world to use Bitcoin as a fiat currency in 2021 and gradually increase its national Bitcoin reserves. In addition, countries such as Russia, Iran are also exploring the use of Bitcoin for international trade settlement to evade Western financial sanctions. If the U.S. government takes the lead in taking action to include Bitcoin in the national reserve system, other countries may have to make corresponding adjustments to avoid being passive in future competition in the global financial system. This may lead to a "national Bitcoin reserve competition" around the world, which will in turn affect the global financial landscape.

Finally, this policy may also have a chain reaction to the regulatory environment of the crypto market in the United States. At present, the regulation of the crypto market in the United States is still relatively uncertain, and the SEC (SEC) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) have differences on the issue of the attribution of regulatory rights for crypto assets. However, if the U.S. government decides to include Bitcoin in its national reserves, it means that the legal status of Bitcoin may be formally established and further clarification of relevant regulatory frameworks. This may bring a clearer compliance path to the US crypto market, push more institutional funds into the market, and further accelerate the mainstreaming of Bitcoin.

In summary, the US government's implementation of "strategic asset reserves" is not only a major impact on the global financial system, but may also completely change the market positioning of Bitcoin and affect the direction of global capital flows. The implementation of this policy may trigger huge market fluctuations in the short term, but in the long run, it may become a milestone in the history of Bitcoin development, pushing the global financial system into a whole new era.

3. Future market outlook and investment strategy

3.1 Long-term trends and future prospects of the crypto market

The development path of the crypto market can be analyzed from multiple angles such as macroeconomic trends, policy environment, market structure changes, and technological progress. The Trump administration's policies may become a catalyst for a new bull market in the market, but their long-term impact will depend on multiple variables, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the evolution of the global de-dollarization process, the degree of institutional investors' participation, and the policy orientation of emerging markets.

First, changes in the global financial environment will be a key factor affecting the long-term trend of the crypto market. The global economy is currently facing a series of challenges such as deglobalization, inflationary pressures, interest rate uncertainty and geopolitical conflicts, which may prompt more investors to regard Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. Historical experience shows that in a period of rising global uncertainty, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold are often favored by the market, and Bitcoin is gradually having similar safe-haven functions. If the U.S. government formally recognizes Bitcoin’s reserve asset status, then Bitcoin will further gain market trust and may replace some of the market share of gold.

Secondly, the degree of participation of institutional investors will become an important variable that determines the future market size of Bitcoin. In recent years, with the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, traditional financial institutions have begun to enter the crypto market on a large scale. For example, Bitcoin ETF products from giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity have attracted billions of dollars inflows, and if the U.S. government establishes a "strategic asset reserve", more sovereign funds, pension funds and central banks may accelerate the pace of Bitcoin allocation. This will further drive Bitcoin’s market maturity and gradually transform it from a highly volatile asset to a stable store of value tool.

In addition, the acceleration of the global de-dollarization process will also have a profound impact on the crypto market. At present, economies including China, Russia, Iran, India and other countries are actively exploring the path of de-dollarization and seeking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. If Bitcoin becomes part of the U.S. government reserve assets, other countries around the world may have to reassess their attitudes towards Bitcoin. Some countries may follow up and increase Bitcoin’s share in foreign exchange reserves, while others may choose to restrict Bitcoin transactions to maintain the stability of their own currencies. This policy game will directly affect Bitcoin's global liquidity and may create arbitrage opportunities in some markets.

3.2 Investment strategy and market opportunity analysis

Against the backdrop of profound changes in the market structure, investors need to adjust their strategies to adapt to the new market environment. Whether it is an individual or an institutional investor, it is necessary to consider how to optimize asset allocation in the new financial landscape and find the most promising investment opportunities.

First, Bitcoin’s investment logic will change. In the past, Bitcoin was primarily regarded as a high-risk, high-return speculative asset, and in the future, it may be seen more as a "digital gold" or "central bank reserve asset." This means that Bitcoin’s price volatility may gradually decrease, and investors who hold Bitcoin for a long time will enjoy stable value growth. For investors, adopting a "long-term holding" (HODL) strategy may be the best way to deal with market changes, especially with government policy support, the long-term value of Bitcoin will be more guaranteed.

Second, structural arbitrage opportunities in the market may increase. As governments differentiate their policies towards Bitcoin, different regulatory environments may appear in the market, which will lead to price differences between different markets. For example, if some countries strictly restrict bitcoin transactions and the U.S. government actively promotes Bitcoin reserve programs, then Bitcoin prices in global markets may be biased significantly, and smart investors can use these differences for cross-market arbitrage trading.

In addition, the role of the derivatives market will be further enhanced. At present, the market for derivatives such as Bitcoin futures and options is relatively mature. With the entry of institutional investors, the market's demand for Bitcoin risk management will further increase. In the future, we may see more complex financial instruments being introduced into crypto markets, such as Bitcoin-based bonds, structured products, etc. For professional investors, using these tools for risk hedging and return optimization will be an important trend in the future market.

On the other hand, in addition to Bitcoin, market opportunities for other crypto assets are also worth paying attention to. Although Bitcoin may become a major national reserve asset, the ecosystem of smart contract platforms such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are still developing rapidly. If government and institutional funds begin to enter the crypto market on a large scale, these assets may also benefit. Especially in the fields of decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenized assets (RWA), new market opportunities may emerge in the future. For example, some countries may explore blockchain-based treasury bond issuances, or use smart contract technology to optimize financial transaction processes, and these trends may create new investment opportunities for investors.

3.3 Risk factors and response strategies

Although the Trump administration's policies may bring long-term benefits to the crypto market, investors still need to pay attention to potential risk factors and formulate corresponding response strategies.

First, policy uncertainty remains one of the biggest risks in the market. Although the Trump administration may support strategic reserves of crypto assets, the implementation of this policy still depends on many factors, including Congressional approval, the Fed's attitude, the cooperation of the Treasury Department, and the reactions of other countries around the world. If policy advancement is hindered, the market may experience greater volatility. Therefore, investors need to pay close attention to policy trends and adjust their investment strategies according to policy changes.

Secondly, market liquidity risk is also an important consideration. Although the Bitcoin market is much more mature than in the past, its liquidity is still relatively low compared to traditional financial markets. If the government or large institutions suddenly adjust their Bitcoin positions, the market may experience drastic volatility. Therefore, investors should avoid excessive leverage trading and adopt a strategy of buying or selling in batches when the market fluctuates greatly to reduce the risk of market shock.

In addition, geopolitical factors may also have an impact on the crypto market. As competition among countries intensifies around the world, some countries may take steps to curb the use of Bitcoin. For example, China has strengthened its regulation of cryptocurrencies many times in the past few years, and if the U.S. government promotes the strategic reserve plan for Bitcoin, other countries may take corresponding countermeasures. Investors need to consider this possibility and ensure diversification of their portfolios to reduce the risks posed by specific policy changes.

Finally, technological risks remain a major challenge in the crypto market. Although the Bitcoin network itself is highly secure, the entire crypto industry still has risks such as smart contract vulnerabilities, exchange security issues, and hacker attacks. Investors need to choose a trading platform with higher security and take appropriate security measures, such as using cold wallets to store assets and diversify investments in different asset classes to reduce potential technical risks.

4. Conclusion

Against the backdrop of major changes in the global financial system, whether the US government will officially include crypto assets such as Bitcoin into national strategic reserves has become the focus of market attention. With the change in the Trump administration's attitude towards crypto assets and the acceleration of the global de-dollarization process, the possibility of establishing a "strategic asset reserve" is gradually increasing. If this policy is implemented, it will be one of the most disruptive changes in the global financial system in a century, and may have far-reaching impacts on the US dollar's reserve status, financial game between countries, market liquidity, sovereign currency competition pattern, and Bitcoin's value awareness. Therefore, we need to explore in-depth the potential motivations of the Trump administration to promote the policy, the policy context, the global macro environment, and the wide range of impacts it may have on the market.

Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's promotion of the concept of "strategic asset reserves", the global financial market is undergoing a profound structural change. Bitcoin and other crypto assets are transforming from speculative investments into possible national reserve assets and gradually establishing their core position in the global financial system. This trend will not only affect the crypto market itself, but will also have a profound impact on the US dollar's global reserve currency status, traditional financial markets, sovereign monetary system, and institutional and individual investment strategies. The crypto market is in a critical stage where policy dividends and market challenges coexist. If the US government officially incorporates crypto assets into its strategic reserves, core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum will usher in unprecedented development opportunities.

We recommend that investors need to pay close attention to policy changes and look for the best investment opportunities amid market volatility. The "strategic reserves of crypto assets" proposed by the Trump administration may become a key node in the transformation of the global financial system and push the Bitcoin market into a new stage of development. For investors, this policy may bring unprecedented market opportunities, but it is also accompanied by greater uncertainty. In the future market environment, long-term holding of Bitcoin, paying attention to policy dynamics, utilizing market arbitrage opportunities, optimizing portfolio structure, and managing market risks will be the key to successful investment. As the global financial system evolves, crypto assets will become an increasingly important asset class, and investors who can accurately grasp the trend will gain the most from this change.