Macro research report of crypto market: China-US economic and trade recovery resonates with "double decline", Bitcoin once again breaks through $100,000

1. Macro background: China-US policy resonance and market sentiment turn

In May 2025 , the People's Bank of China announced the implementation of the "double reduction" policy, namely, lowering the deposit reserve ratio ( RRR ) by 0.5 percentage points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity, and at the same time lowering the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage point to 1.4% . The introduction of this policy not only has a profound impact on the traditional financial market, but also brings potential strategic opportunities to the crypto market and the Web3 ecosystem. At this time, the expectations of high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States have been positive, further driving the shift in risk appetite in the global market.

**1.1 China-US economic and trade recovery: strong stimulation of market

sentiment**

The economic and trade relations between China and the United States have always been the focus of global market attention. In the past few years, due to the impact of the Sino-US trade war and tariff policies, the global economy has faced considerable uncertainty, and investors' risk appetite has declined for a while. However, with the release of the People's Bank of China's "double reduction" policy, the market's expectations for a recovery in China-US economic and trade have increased significantly, and the prices of risky assets have generally risen, especially in the crypto market. The Chinese government has sent an important signal behind the "double reduction" policy: the easing cycle of monetary policy has arrived and economic growth is expected to gain new support. Against this policy backdrop, the liquidity of the market will be released, and the enthusiasm for investment in traditional assets such as stocks and commodities is rising. At the same time, high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States are about to begin, especially the meeting between China and Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Bescent further enhances the market's optimistic expectations for future economic and trade cooperation. This series of policy signals not only reshape investor sentiment, but also has a huge positive impact on the crypto market. The rise in risky assets such as Bitcoin is a direct reflection of the shift in market sentiment. The increase in risk appetite has gradually increased investors' acceptance of non-traditional assets such as cryptocurrencies, and the price of Bitcoin once approached a record high of $100,000 .

1.2 "Double Reduction" Policy and Global Liquidity

China's "double reduction" policy has important global influence. By lowering the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rates, the Central Bank of China has injected sufficient liquidity into the market and released 1 trillion yuan of funds. This loose monetary policy has not only played a positive role in China's economy, but may also trigger a wave of changes in capital flows around the world. Especially in the context of the US economy still facing high inflation and high unemployment risks, China's policies seem particularly attractive. Investors in global capital markets, especially Asian markets, responded positively to this policy. With the sharp release of liquidity, global capital will be more actively looking for new investment channels. Against this background, investors in traditional asset markets and crypto markets have significantly increased their demand for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. As "digital gold", Bitcoin's value is highlighted in the global monetary easing environment and has become an important tool for investors to fight inflation and currency depreciation.

The "double reduction" policy of the People's Bank of China not only promoted the recovery of the domestic economy, but also caused a sharp increase in the risk appetite of the international market. Asian stock markets rose sharply, and commodities such as iron ore and steel continued to rise, and investors in traditional markets were looking for new investment opportunities in the crypto market. Due to Bitcoin’s fixed supply and anti-inflation properties, more and more capital regards it as a long-term store of value.

1.3 Federal Reserve policy and interest rate cut expectations

While global market liquidity has increased significantly, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trend has also become the focus of market attention. Previously, the Federal Reserve has maintained a high interest rate level due to continued high U.S. inflation. However, recent economic data show that while the U.S. economy is still expanding steadily, the dual pressures of high inflation and high unemployment have put the Federal Reserve's monetary policy facing greater challenges. The Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has gradually weakened, and the market generally believes that the Fed will maintain its existing interest rate policy in the short term to avoid overstimulating the economy. This weakening of expectations of interest rate cuts directly led to a strengthening of the US dollar. The appreciation of the US dollar has had a profound impact on global capital flows, especially in the crypto asset market. Despite the strong US dollar, the demand for crypto assets in the market has not dropped significantly. Instead, "digital gold" has heated up again as a safe-haven asset. Investors are looking for stable value storage tools under the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy, and the demand for Bitcoin has increased.

In addition, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has also affected regulatory expectations in the crypto market. As the Federal Reserve may take more easing measures, market policy support for crypto assets has gradually risen, especially in some U.S. states have already passed legislation on cryptocurrency reserves. In the future, as the US government's supervision of the crypto market is further relaxed, the crypto asset market will usher in a broader institutional dividend period.

1.4 The turn of market sentiment and investment strategy

Overall, the resonance of Sino-US policies and the shift in market sentiment will have a profound impact on the global capital market, especially the crypto market. With the implementation of China's "double reduction" policy and the recovery of Sino-US economic and trade, global risk appetite has increased significantly, and investors' sentiment has turned more positive, especially in the cryptocurrency market, where demand for risky assets such as Bitcoin surges. The price of Bitcoin is close to an all-time high of $ 100,000 , showing the market's high recognition of this asset. However, in this macro context, investors still need to be cautious in dealing with potential market risks. With changes in global monetary policy, the strength of the dollar and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy may bring volatility to the crypto market. Therefore, investors need to maintain a flexible strategy, adopt a "core + satellite" investment portfolio, use Bitcoin as digital gold for basic allocation, and pay attention to Web3 projects with practical application scenarios, especially innovations in cross-border payments, digital identity authentication and other fields.

In general, driven by the resonance of China-US policy and the shift in market sentiment, the crypto market and the Web3 ecosystem have ushered in new development opportunities. This macro background not only enhances investors' risk preferences, but also lays the foundation for the future development of crypto assets and blockchain technology.

2. Bitcoin market trends: The price approaches $ 100,000

Bitcoin showed a strong upward trend in 2025 , with its price approaching the historical psychological threshold of $100,000 many times, becoming one of the most eye-catching assets this year. The forces that drive this round of rise are complex and diverse, including the resonance of macro-policy backgrounds, the structural evolution within the crypto industry, and there is also the two-way game between emotions and expectations. At a time when the traditional financial system is generally facing uncertainty, Bitcoin is re-established at the center of global capital's vision. Behind the price curve is not only the centralized release of safe-haven demand, but also the real embodiment of institutional recognition, influx of institutions, and valuation reconstruction.

Looking back at the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025 , Bitcoin's trend has significantly benefited from the policy easing rhythm of major economies around the world. In particular, the "simultaneous transformation of monetary and fiscal policies between China and the United States has injected unprecedented liquidity into the market. China has lowered the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates in two rounds, driving the rapid rise in domestic capital risk appetite, while the Federal Reserve was forced to suspend interest rate hikes under Trump's pressure and released expectations of future interest rate cuts. The US dollar index weakened and the US real interest rate fell, further lifting the "anchor" of global assets. Against this background, Bitcoin, as a scarce, sovereign and strong consensus digital asset, has once again become the dual role of "safe-haven currency + growth asset" in the eyes of global investors. While hedging against the depreciation of fiat currency, it also assumes the alternative function of "digital gold" in the structural cracks of the monetary architecture.

The biggest difference from the previous bull market cycle is that institutional investors have become the dominant force in this round of rise. Large US asset management institutions such as BlackRock , Fidelity , and ARK have deployed Bitcoin spot ETFs to promote Bitcoin to the right track of institutionalized allocation. In Hong Kong, Dubai, Europe and other places, financial products for crypto assets are becoming increasingly rich and regulatory transparency has increased, allowing Bitcoin to enter more traditional capital pools in compliance. The addition of this institutional-level capital not only improves the depth and stability of the Bitcoin market, but also significantly reduces its "pure emotions-dominated" volatility structure in the past, making its rise appear more structural and sustained.

At the same time, the scarcity logic on the supply side is also continuing to amplify Bitcoin’s value anchoring capabilities. The fourth Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 reduced the reward of a single block from 6.25 to 3.125 , greatly compressing the new supply. As the inflation rate of Bitcoin blockchain has dropped to less than 1% , and gradually approaches the annual supply growth rate of gold, its narrative of "deflationary currency" has been further strengthened. The demand side has grown exponentially under multiple pulls such as ETF listing, central bank purchases, sovereign fund allocation, and global hedging. The asymmetry of the supply and demand structure constitutes the fundamental support for the medium- and long-term rise of Bitcoin prices.

It is worth noting that the current process of Bitcoin approaching $ 100,000 is also accompanied by violent mood swings and technical adjustments. On the one hand, concentrated trading behaviors of whale accounts are constantly emerging in the market, especially near key integer digits. With the game between high-frequency algorithms and bulk arbitrage, the market has been violently pulled in a short period of time and volatility soared; on the other hand, some old funds took the opportunity to distribute, and combined with the "fear of heights" sentiment of retail investors, triggering a phased pullback. It can be clearly observed in on-chain indicators such as Glassnode that long-term holders are gradually reducing selling pressure, new entry is concentrated at high prices, and the market structure is shifting from early belief users to mainstream incremental users.

In terms of market public opinion, the media widely publicizes the historical significance of Bitcoin close to $ 100,000 , forming a strong " FOMO effect" (fear of missing out), attracting a large number of retail investors to enter the market in the short term. However, this heat of public opinion has also brought about a typical "bubble expectation". Some short-term funds have excessive speculation, especially concentrated transactions by highly leveraged users, which are very likely to induce pedaling liquidation at key points. Therefore, although long-term logic supports Bitcoin price to break through new highs, there is still a possibility of severe fluctuations in the short term, and the market enters a game stage between heat and risk.

Overall, Bitcoin’s approaching $ 100,000 is not only a resonance between technical and policy aspects, but also a leap in its asset positioning in the global capital system. Under the macro framework of de-dollarization, global risk aversion, and institutional funds entering, Bitcoin is no longer a "speculative target", but also a strategic asset in the new round of global wealth redistribution. Although there are still adjustment risks in the short term, from a medium- and long-term perspective, this round of rise is not a flash in the pan, but the starting point of the new consensus cycle. Investors need to find a balance between enthusiasm and calmness, and understand that Bitcoin is not only price, but also a resonance between belief, system and the times.

3. Web3 ecological development: dual-wheel drive of policy and technology

With the relaxation of macro policies and the continuous breakthroughs in key technologies, the Web3 ecosystem is entering a new round of development cycle. It is no longer just a hype tool around crypto assets, but has gradually evolved into an underlying architecture for global digital governance, cross-border collaboration, and value Internet. In this process, the three major forces of policy guidance, technological innovation and application expansion are superimposed on each other, forming the main axis to promote Web3 from concept to scale.

1. Policy support

Since 2025 , the United States' policy attitude in the fields of cryptocurrencies and Web3 is undergoing a key turning point from "regulatory suppression" to "strategic acceptance", especially Bitcoin and core Web3 technology are gradually being included in the long-term considerations of national financial and technological development. The most representative signal is the "Bitcoin Reserves Act" officially passed by New Hampshire in May 2025 . The bill requires the state’s Treasury Department to hold a portion of its state government fiscal reserves (first 5% ) in Bitcoin over the next 24 months and support the inclusion of Bitcoin in the public account system. Although this legislative measure comes from local governments, it has far-reaching implications.

First of all, it marks that Bitcoin is no longer just a "risk asset" in some jurisdictions , but is regarded as a "digital gold" with long-term storage of value, with a functional role in fighting inflation and enhancing fiscal independence. This provides a "pilot template" for policy makers, including other states, which may trigger a round of "local government BTCization " trend, injecting long-term institutional funding sources into the Web3 ecosystem. Secondly, the passage of the bill also enhanced the policy certainty around Bitcoin and Web3 technology, eased the risk of uncertainty caused by previous federal regulatory conflicts such as the SEC and CFTC . For example, under the incentives of the bill, the New Hampshire Department of Treasury has signed a memorandum agreement with two local digital asset custodians and has clearly explored the connection between on-chain transparency and public accounts, providing a practical blueprint for the DAO -style fiscal system.

More broadly speaking, many US state governments are currently in the early stages of "policy competition and cooperation". In addition to New Hampshire, crypto-friendly states such as Texas and Wyoming are also promoting experimental legislation on crypto mining, on-chain finance, and smart contract compliance in their states. At the same time, the federal level is promoting the Financial Innovation and Technology Future Act ( FIT21 ), which proposes to define mainstream digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum as "non-security commodities", and promotes the establishment of a unified regulatory framework to further clarify core issues such as asset issuance, exchange registration, and stablecoin audit. These dynamics strengthen the long-term institutional confidence of the US market in the Web3 ecosystem and also provide a clear policy anchor for enterprises and capital entry.

From an international perspective, the US's transformation also has a "spillover effect". As the center of global capital and technology, any active legislation in the United States may drive "policy follow-up" in other countries or regional markets. For example, recently, financial regulatory authorities in the UK, South Korea and Japan have begun to re-examine the stablecoin compliance mechanism, or accelerate the opening of the Web3 "regulatory sandbox", thereby driving the global Web3 capital flow and ecological coordination.

2. Technology progress

The maturity of technology is a key prerequisite for Web3 to move from a "narrative economy" to a "actual deployment". From 2024 to the present, infrastructure technologies such as modular blockchain and zero-knowledge proof ( ZKP ) have entered a practical stage, greatly improving the performance, composability and privacy guarantee capabilities of the Web3 network. The design concept of modular blockchain separates execution, settlement and data availability, allowing developers to choose the optimal combination according to business needs. Projects such as Celestia , EigenLayer and other projects provide flexible underlying resource scheduling capabilities, and provide "customized on demand" infrastructure for on-chain applications. The explosive progress of zero-knowledge proof technology has given Web3 the dual capabilities of "computing + privacy". ZK-rollup , as the core solution of Ethereum Layer 2, has entered the stage of large-scale deployment. At the same time, cutting-edge cross-fields such as ZKML (zero-knowledge machine learning) have also begun to show great potential in on-chain model verification and off-chain data compliance calls.

In addition, the MCP ( Model Context Protocol )-like protocol surrounding the integration of AI and Web3 has also taken shape, linking the training, calling and verification processes of AI models, so that "on-chain intelligence" no longer stays in script logic, but has the ability to evolve itself. These new paradigm technologies are gradually breaking through the bottleneck of "high gas fees, low interactivity, and weak privacy protection" in the original Web3 system, making on-chain applications possible to compete with the Web2 experience.

3. Application scenario expansion

Policy relaxation and technological breakthroughs ultimately point to the continuous expansion of Web3 application scenarios and the rapid acceptance of actual needs. Taking cross-border payment as an example, benefiting from the popularity of stablecoins (such as USDC and USDT ) and the maturity of on-chain clearing mechanisms, more and more small and medium-sized export companies and digital service providers have begun to use stablecoins to directly settle, effectively avoiding the problems of exchange rate fluctuations and low transfer efficiency of traditional financial systems. Especially in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, where "weak financial infrastructure + high crypto acceptance" are "weak" and "high cryptocurrency acceptance", Web3 payment has become a trend of practicality.

Digital identity authentication ( DID ) has also become an important breakthrough in the implementation of Web3 . Against the backdrop of the flood of AI content and the intensified trust crisis of Web2 platform, on-chain verified identity systems (such as Worldcoin , Polygon ID , Sismo , etc.) have been integrated into key links such as DAO governance, DePIN device access, and cross-chain credit evaluation, solving the basic problems of "who is the user" and "who owns the data". In addition, on-chain social networking, gaming, referendum, educational qualification verification and other scenarios have also ushered in an explosion opportunity due to the maturity of the DID system.

More broadly, three types of "application driving forces" have been formed in the Web3 ecosystem: First, the "chain reform" upgrade needs from traditional industries, such as real estate, insurance, logistics, etc., hope to improve efficiency and transparency through on-chain development; second, the advanced evolution of encryption native needs, such as from DeFi1.0 to innovative gameplay such as Restaking , SocialFi , and AI Agent ; third, the cultural resonance of global youth and developer groups for free collaboration and value sovereignty, constitutes the cultural foundation of the long-term centripetal force of the Web3 community.

4. Risk factors and investment strategies

Although the current Web3 ecosystem and Bitcoin market show strong growth trend, investors still need to pay close attention to potential systemic and non-systemic risks. At a time when the game between bulls and bears continues to escalate and the linkage between policies and markets is becoming more and more complicated, formulating rational and forward-looking investment strategies is particularly critical.

First of all, from a macro perspective, the direction of global interest rate policy is still highly uncertain. Although the Fed releases easing expectations amid amid slowing inflation and employment pressures, once inflation data rises again or geopolitical conflicts intensify, it may force it to turn to hawks again, thereby cracking down on risky asset valuations. Especially at a time when Bitcoin has been highly financialized and has greatly increased its sensitivity to macro policies, any expectations of "resume rate cuts" or "return to balance sheet reduction" may trigger severe market fluctuations.

Secondly, regulatory disturbances still constitute major external variables. Although the United States and other countries are advancing the crypto asset legislation process, before the new regulatory framework is officially implemented, there is still a gray space for law enforcement standards of SEC , CFTC and other departments. In extreme cases, "selective law enforcement" may even be adopted for core infrastructure such as DeFi platforms, stablecoin projects, and DEX exchanges. In addition, the implementation of the EU's MiCA framework may also put compliance pressure on some projects, especially the public chain ecosystem involving the KYC/AML mechanism, which will have to face higher operating costs and identity governance challenges.

Third, from the perspective of the on-chain ecosystem itself, technical risks cannot be ignored. For example, although zero-knowledge proof, Layer2 bridging technology, and modular blockchain have huge potential, they still face problems such as being attacked, code vulnerabilities or immature protocols. For example, in the first quarter of 2025 , a cross-chain bridge protocol was attacked by a smart contract logic vulnerability, causing assets of more than 300 million US dollars to be stolen, which is a typical systematic "black swan in the chain" event. This reminds investors that the other side of technological innovation is that systemic risks have not been fully priced by the market.

In addition, structural differentiation in the market may lead to phased bubbles. As the total market value of the crypto market approaches a historical high, hot assets (such as Meme coins, AI coins, and modular concept coins) emerge one after another, and there is no shortage of capital speculation. Some projects that have not yet been implemented in commercial areas may be overestimated under the leadership of emotions. Once the hot spots recede, it is very easy to cause a concentrated retreat. This requires investors to maintain fundamental analysis and valuation skills and valuation discipline when pursuing high returns.

Against this background, investment strategies need to be more inclined to "offensive in defense". Specifically:

For investors with low risk appetite, Bitcoin should be allocated as the "asset anchor in the crypto field" for a long time, gradually increase positions in each round of resumption, and give priority to holding mainstream assets with institutional recognition.

For investors who pursue growth returns, they can pay attention to projects in the infrastructure track that have real application implementation, active developer ecology, and clear protocol upgrade paths, such as Layer2 , ZK , modular chain, DePIN , etc., but they should avoid holding heavily in short-term hot spots during high market volatility.

In terms of operational strategies, dynamic management should be given priority to building positions in batches, adjusting positions in a rolling manner, setting stop-profit and stop-loss ranges, etc., to avoid extreme decisions led by emotions.

In addition, the "policy sensitivity" dimension should be strengthened in project selection , and the layout of emerging projects growing under the background of clear compliance trends (such as the United States, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, etc.) should be given priority to improve the portfolio's risk resistance.

In general, the crypto market is at a cyclical turning point in 2025. Although it is full of opportunities, it also has hidden risks. Only by understanding structural trends and constructing a combination configuration logic that travels through the cycle can we move forward steadily in the future situation of market fluctuations and innovation parallel.

V. Conclusion

In the first half of 2025 , the crypto market entered a new round of structural upward cycle driven by the resonance of Sino-US policy, warming liquidity and accelerating technological innovation. Bitcoin, as a value-anchored asset, continues to gain mainstream financial recognition, and its price approaches the 100,000 US dollar mark, sending a strong market signal; the Web3 ecosystem, with the help of US policy inclusion and underlying technological breakthroughs such as ZK and modularization, has further expanded its application scenarios, presenting a two-wheel resonance pattern of "from technology to system". However, policy variables, regulatory uncertainty, market speculation and technical security risks are still shadows that must be guarded against. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, investors should maintain a calm judgment in structural prosperity and follow the strategic logic of value-driven, policy orientation and security bottom line in order to truly cross the cycle and grasp the core dividends of the next stage.