Macro outlook next week: Traders resume pricing of Fed rate cuts before September, U.S. dollar frenzy

PANews February 15th news, this week's CPI report showed that U.S. consumer inflation rate rose. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell admitted that more work needed to eliminate price pressure in the economy. Expectations of interest rate cuts cooled down, but then weak retail sales data were weaker. It brings some hope to people. Wall Street's ability to handle dramatic events is once again trained. It has been proved once again that traders are competent for this task, and the market as a whole has not been greatly affected. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

At 22:30 on Monday, 2026 FOMC Voting Committee and Philadelphia Fed Chairman Huck delivered a speech;

At 23:20 on Monday, Federal Reserve Director Bowman delivered a speech;

On Tuesday at 23:20, the 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley delivered a speech;

At 03:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released minutes of January's monetary policy meeting;

Thursday at 21:30, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States to the week of February 15, the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in February;

On Thursday, 22:35, the 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed Chairman Goulsby delivered a speech;

On Friday at 01:05, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed Chairman Mousalem delivered a speech at the New York Economic Club;

Friday at 22:45, the US February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI initial value/services PMI initial value;

At 23:00 on Friday, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February and the expected final value of the one-year inflation rate in February.

Investors are unlikely to pay too much attention to the minutes of next week’s Fed’s January meeting, following Powell’s semi-annual testimony and January inflation data. So the focus may be on the S&P Global PMI data for next Friday. A PMI below 50 may put pressure on the dollar, pushing up gold. A survey of more than 50 fund managers around the world in February showed that among interest rate and currency traders, betting on a stronger dollar is still regarded as the most crowded position. Nearly half of investors still expect the dollar to peak in the first quarter of this year.