Macro outlook next week: CPI data may touch the stagflation trading script, BTC may face support test of $100,000

PANews reported on May 10 that Bitcoin returned above $100,000 this week, and Wall Street was cautious at the end of this week's trading day. US stocks and US bonds fluctuated as the world's two major economies were preparing to start trade negotiations, and investors avoided making higher-risk bets. Market optimism continues to pressure gold prices. The cumulative decline of gold prices on Wednesday and Thursday was nearly 4%, but rebounded on Friday, with a cumulative increase of 2.64% last week. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

On Monday, Fed Director Kugler delivered a speech;

At 20:30 on Tuesday, the United States will not be seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate/seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate/seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate/seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate;

At 05:40 Thursday, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley attended a fireside conversation;

Thursday at 20:30, the US retail sales monthly rate in April, the US PPI annual rate/month rate in April, and the US New York Fed/Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in May;

At 20:40 Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered an opening speech at an event;

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve held its second Thomas Laubach research conference, which will focus on monetary policy and economic research, and is expected to provide an academic perspective on the Fed's commitment to conduct a review of the monetary policy framework every five years, until the 16th;

At 22:00 on Friday, the initial value of the US May one-year inflation rate expected and the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May.

The Fed's voice is not dovish this week. More than half of the Fed's policymakers made public speeches on Friday, and no policymaker said the Fed was close to cutting interest rates. Next week's economic data will provide an important perspective, with the US CPI released on Tuesday to provide a new interpretation of inflation trends, while the retail sales data released on Thursday is the latest window to understand consumer spending. The US CPI in April is expected to confirm that price pressure is still too high and there is no reason to cut interest rates for the time being. Although the US dollar index has risen in the short term, the US dollar index is still facing selling pressure due to the risk of stagflation caused by continued tariffs. In addition, the impact of macro data on Bitcoin price and whether Bitcoin can consolidate the $100,000 price support range is also worth paying attention to.