Macro outlook for next week: The Fed is expected to be more cautious, and non-farm payrolls may add fuel to the dollar

PANews reported on January 4 that this week the largest ETF tracking Bitcoin, the darling of global speculators, experienced its most serious outflow in history. Volatility indicators for U.S. Treasury bonds quietly rose, and U.S. stocks experienced the most serious end-of-year period on record. Decline. There are no signs of panic in the market, but market movements do point to a wariness that has been largely absent over the past 12 months, at least in the risk asset space. Concerns about Trump's policies and their impact on inflation awakened the hedging market. Next week's non-farm payrolls report will play a central role in influencing market sentiment, and here are the key points that markets will focus on in the new week:

At 22:30 on Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered a speech;

At 18:00 on Tuesday, the initial annual/monthly rate of CPI in the Eurozone in December and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone in November;

At 23:00 on Tuesday, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI in December and the U.S. JOLTs job vacancies in November;

Wednesday 21:15, US ADP employment number in December;

At 03:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting;

Thursday 09:30, China’s December CPI annual rate;

At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of layoffs by challenger companies in the United States in December;

At 22:00 on Thursday, Harker, the 2026 FOMC voting committee member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, delivered a speech;

At 01:40 on Friday, Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voting committee member and Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, delivered a speech;

At 02:30 on Friday, 2025 FOMC voting committee member and Kansas Fed Chairman Schmid delivered a speech on the economic and monetary policy prospects;

Friday 21:30, US December unemployment rate, US December seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US December average hourly wage annual/monthly rate;

At 23:00 on Friday, the initial value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States in January and the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States in January.

The U.S. will release several labor market data next week, starting with Jolts job openings data on Tuesday, followed by ADP employment data on Wednesday, and finally non-farm payrolls data on Friday. It is worth noting that the December non-farm payrolls report is the first report in months that is not affected by one-time factors. UBS expects the number of new U.S. jobs in December to be close to the recent moving average and continue to show a gradual cooling of the labor market, providing room for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates. Given the current market pricing, strong labor data is unlikely to lead to further rate cuts from the Fed, while weaker data may have markets considering further rate cuts. But U.S. data is unlikely to weaken the dollar index at this stage.