Kaito is about to issue coins. How to use four major models to value your airdrop?

Author: Luke, Mars Finance

introduction

On February 17, Kaito AI, a Web3 search engine supported by AI, announced the completion of the KAITO Yaps snapshot, followed by Genesis NFT snapshot. In this long-planned wealth distribution, on-chain analyst Caneleo found that Kaito has deployed 1 billion tokens on the Base chain, of which 33.3% of the share may be used for airdrops.

In other words, there are 333 million $KAITOs on the market to be distributed to NFT holders and Yap contributors. Based on Kaito's previous round of financing, the total value of airdrops is close to $28.875 million, calculated at a 33.3% airdrop ratio.

Among them, Kaito designed a double-layer airdrop system:

• Genesis NFT holders: 1500 NFTs will allocate 15% of the airdrop pool (approximately $4.32 million), and a single NFT is expected to receive $2880 in $KAITO;
• Yap Contributors: The remaining 85% ($24.555 million) are distributed in points proportion, and combined with the current release rate estimate, each Yap is worth approximately $13.

When the market realized the scale and return of this airdrop, FOMO sentiment heated up rapidly. Various "hair-pushing" troops rushed to the standings crazily, Kaito's tweet was flooded on X (formerly Twitter), and a Web3 version of "Airdrop Hunger Games" officially kicked off.

Why was Kaito able to quickly become the most popular airdrop project in Web3 after EigenLayer?

Valuation expectations ignite FOMO: Kaito is valued at $87.5 million in Series A financing in June 2023. Compared with Berachain, its valuation increased by 8 times after financing. If Kaito takes the same route, the airdrop value may be 10 times enlarged.

Ecological leverage amplifies returns: Kaito adopts the dual points system of "Yap to Earn" + "Genesis NFT", and users who hold NFTs may even receive airdrop rewards of more than US$13,000.

Top venture capital support: Sequoia Capital, Dragonfly and other institutions entered the market, strengthened project endorsement, and market confidence increased significantly.

Under the FOMO atmosphere, Kaito is not only an AI search engine, but also a Web3 rich volcano that is about to erupt.

Who is Kaito? ——Web3 "AI Rainmaker" of the Information Empire

If EigenLayer is the hottest "liquidity re-staking" project this year, Kaito is the pioneer in the field of information finance (InfoFi), and its goal is to become the Google + Bloomberg terminal in the crypto world.

Founded by former Citadel quantitative trader Yu Hu, Kaito focuses on solving the information fragmentation problem in the Web3 world. Faced with massive scattered data such as Twitter, Discord, and Governance Forums, Kaito integrates AI models to create MetaSearch - an intelligent search engine tailored for crypto investors.

Unlike traditional search engines, Kaito can not only index various data sources in Web3, but also combine ChatGPT technology to generate in-depth analysis, allowing investors to obtain market intelligence with one click and accurately capture the on-chain Alpha opportunities. Therefore, Kaito is also known as the "Web3 version of Alpha Catcher".

Kaito has performed well in the capital market over the past two years, attracting the attention of top venture capital investors:

• Seed Round (February 2023): Leaded by Dragonfly, it raises $5.3 million and has a valuation of $40 million.
• Series A (June 2023): Leaded by Superscrypt and Spartan, raising $5.5 million, and the valuation surged directly to $87.5 million.
• Growth Trend (June 2024): Kaito announced its first profit, moving from “burning money to start a business” to a self-sufficiency AI giant.

The investment intake of top venture capital not only means recognition of Kaito's business model, but also further strengthens its ecological value and provides strong support for future token economic models.

Kaito is not just a search engine, it also builds a complete information economy system. Through the "Yap to Earn" model, users can earn Yap points in the following ways:

• Content contribution: Post on Twitter, tag @KaitoAI, share crypto market analysis.
• Social fission: Invite friends to participate and use multi-account tools (such as MoreLogin) to improve the efficiency of obtaining points.
• NFT empowerment: Holding Genesis NFT (minting cost 0.1 ETH) can increase the weight of airdrops and even have the opportunity to receive token rewards of up to $13,000.

This mechanism directly converts information attention into on-chain assets, allowing Kaito to be not just a tool, but a platform that can be "mined".

Valuation Game: Value Password for Airdrop Feast

In Kaito's airdrop carnival, Yap points and Genesis NFT became the focus of market attention, and the discussions around its value became even more intense. Multiple analytical models try to predict reasonable valuations of Yap and NFT, and the conclusions under different assumptions have also led to market expectations gradually evolve from rational game to FOMO frenzy.

**1. Fund-driven model: Theoretical extreme value derived from FDV

formula**

The valuation of the crypto market has always been based on narrative and capital flows, so the first model is directly based on Kaito's future comprehensive diluted valuation (FDV) and tries to calculate the potential value of Yap.

KOLRen_gmi uses the formula of FDV × airdrop ratio/total circulation, assuming:

• Kaito's FDV is $1 billion;
• 30% of tokens are used for airdrops;
• Yapper is scheduled to run for 90 days, releasing a total of 2.275 million Yap.

Based on this, the model calculates that the Yap value is US$131, far exceeding the mainstream market expectations.

But this deduction has obvious flaws:

• The additional NFT airdrop was not taken into consideration and could affect the actual benefits of Yapper;
• Yap's total supply is assumed to be too ideal, and the actual circulation may be affected by factors such as the listing of the exchange and the distribution rhythm of the project party.

Nevertheless, the model still gives extreme values ​​under market optimistic expectations, providing theoretical support for the attractiveness of Kaito airdrops.

2. NFT voting rights model: Web3 community governance game

Compared with simple FDV derivation, KOLDeFiTeddy2020 adopts an NFT voting right model that is more in line with Kaito's ecosystem.

In Kaito design, Genesis NFTs give holders greater voice in ecological governance, and these NFTs also have airdrop weight. Therefore, the model assumes:

• The market price of a single Genesis NFT is 9.3 ETH;
• The corresponding voting weight is 1162 Yap;

From this calculation, the theoretical value of each Yap is about $22.

Based on the market pricing of NFTs, this method attempts to establish a relative valuation relationship between Yap and NFTs, but its limitations are:

• ETH price fluctuation risk, the market price of NFT itself may be affected by liquidity;
• The weight of voting rights does not necessarily directly reflect the value of tokens, and the way of assignment of governance power is not yet completely transparent.

Although the model yields a much lower numerical value than FDV derivation, it provides a new perspective on understanding Yap valuation from an NFT ecological perspective.

**3. Competitive benchmarking model: Comparability between Kaito and

Hyperliquid**

In the Web3 track, valuation often depends on the market's benchmarking of similar projects. KOLSteve_4P uses the method of competing products to compare Kaito with Hyperliquid, trying to obtain a valuation range that is more in line with market logic.

From the perspective of PMF (product market fit):

• Hyperliquid: Based on a mature decentralized exchange (DEX) model, optimizes the verified trading market;
• Kaito: Explore a new paradigm of information finance (InfoFi) and has not yet formed a solid closed loop of market demand.

In terms of comparable valuations:

• Hyperliquid can benchmark DEXs such as dYdX and Drift, and has a clear market awareness;
• Kaito currently has no direct competitors, and the closest case may be Friend.tech, but the latter's social finance model has major flaws.

From the perspective of token value capture:

• Hyperliquid has a clear token destruction mechanism, which helps maintain long-term value;
• Kaito's income distribution mechanism has not yet been closed, and there is still great uncertainty in the value of its tokens.

Based on these factors, the model believes that the Kaito token's earnings expectation will not exceed Hyperliquid, so Yap's valuation ceiling may be much lower than the extreme forecasts of some markets.

**4. Realistic valuation model: Deduce market expectations based on

financing data**

Compared with theoretical deduction, the market prefers real data support. Kaito's Series A financing valuation is US$87.5 million, and combined with the announced 33.3% token airdrop plan, we can deduce a more reasonable value range:

• NFT valuation derivation: The total cost of 1,500 Genesis NFTs is US$540,000. Calculated by 8 times the financing valuation, the total airdrop is expected to be approximately US$4.32 million, and each NFT is approximately US$2,880;
• Yap Points Valuation Derivation: The remaining $24.555 million will be allocated to Yap Points holders, and at the current release rate, 1 Yap is worth approximately $13.

However, financing valuation is not the final market pricing, so the model further uses Story Protocol and Berachain as benchmarking objects to obtain a combined market scope:

• Story Protocol: The valuation is 16 times, with the current FDV of about $1.73 billion. Based on its market performance, Kaito's NFT may be worth $2218-2880 and Yap worth $10-13.
• Berachain: The financing valuation is 8 times, and the current FDV is about US$2.8 billion. If Kaito takes the same path, NFT may airdrop value of US$5,357 and Yap is worth US$24.

Under the extreme FOMO sentiment of the market, Berachain's highest FDV once reached US$6.75 billion. If Kaito replicates this model, its NFT may soar to US$13,000, and Yap's value may surge to US$59.

Conclusion: Variables in valuation and market fanaticism

Taking the above four models into consideration, we can see different possibilities for the value of Kaito airdrops:

Ultimately, the actual value of Kaito airdrops will depend on the following key factors:

1. Market feedback after the token is launched: If liquidity is sufficient, the valuation may rise significantly;
2. The project party’s long-term development strategy: If the InfoFi ecosystem can be closed, the value of token capture will be more stable;
3. Evolution of market sentiment: The duration of the FOMO atmosphere will affect short-term value fluctuations.

To be sure, Kaito is launching a new airdrop storm in the crypto market, and how this storm will end still needs to be answered personally.