Israel has slumped Ethereum, and is the geocrisis contributing volatile earnings opportunities to the crypto market?

Author: Dingdang, Odaily Planet Daily

This morning, a sudden "black swan" broke the brief calm of the financial market.

As news of Israel launching air strikes on Iran emerged, the cryptocurrency market experienced a heavy blow. According to Ouyi OKX market, the price of BTC fell below $103,000, a 24-hour decline of 3.3%; ETH, which has finally risen recently, fell below $2,450, a drop of 9.2%; and the price of SOL, which stood up due to the positive ETF, has touched around $140, a drop of 9.5%.

The derivatives market is full of misery. According to Coinglass data, the total network liquidation was US$1.159 billion in the past 24 hours, most of which were long positions, with an amount of US$1.084 billion. From the perspective of currency distribution, BTC liquidated $458 million and ETH liquidated $287 million.

The market switched from rebound to defeat only overnight.

The situation in Iran escalates: the fuse of the decline

This decline is not dominated by technology, but is driven by typical geopolitical emergencies.

Israel launches air strikes on Iran, and Iranian paramilitary Revolutionary Guard Commander Salami is rumored to be killed in the attack. According to Kim Ho, several senior Iranian officials have also become targets of Israeli attacks, including the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Mohamed Bagherry. Israeli Defense Minister Katz said missile and drone attacks against Israel and its civilians are expected in the near future. At present, Israel has issued five rounds of air strikes on Iran.

The official media of Iran also conveyed a statement from the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, saying that Israel and the United States will "pay a very heavy price." In response, the United States and Israel will be "severely hit". According to Saudi media reports, the Israeli city of Tel Aviv was attacked, including 10 nuclear facilities.

Trump and his senior foreign policy adviser discussed at Camp David last Sunday and Monday how to reach an Iran nuclear deal without escalating the situation, according to people familiar with the matter. The Iran issue is one of several foreign policy issues and meetings held during the evacuation of U.S. personnel. Government officials seem determined to reach a diplomatic agreement before the Israeli air strike.

U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East, Witkov, originally planned to go to Oman for the sixth round of negotiations, but the prospects for negotiations were cast in shadow after the air strikes. "We are still committed to solving the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomatic means! My entire administration has received instructions to negotiate with Iran. They can be a great country, but they must first give up their hope of obtaining nuclear weapons altogether."

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy said the attack on Iran was "apparently intended to undermine negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran" and "risk regional wars that could have catastrophic consequences for the United States."

This geopolitical storm not only made the situation in the Middle East tense, but also severely hit the global risk asset market. The decline in U.S. stock index futures expanded, and Nasdaq futures fell by 2%. The recent rebound in the crypto market has returned to its original shape, while safe-haven assets have taken advantage of the situation. The spot gold price broke through $3,400/ounce today, up $55, with a daily maximum increase of more than 1.65%, and gold-related assets also rose collectively.

Data Observation: ETH's opportunity to buy at the bottom?

Although the crypto market is still in shock, ETH has quietly become the focus of counter-trend inflows. On-chain data reveals that institutions and whales are "increasing positions to protect the market".

According to on-chain analyst Ember Monitor, the giant whale, which had two accurate band ETH profits, spent $174.1 million to buy 65,325 ETH at an average price of $2,665 after falling today. Currently in a floating loss.

Lookonchain data shows that an address that may be associated with ConsenSys also bought 2,825 ETH 4 hours ago by OTC, with a total amount of US$7.48 million; in the past two weeks, the address has accumulated more than 160,000 ETH (a total value of US$421 million).

There are also whales who choose to use the leverage operation. According to The Data Nerd monitoring, the opening address of 0x 109 borrowed USDT from Aave and bought 1,844 ETH (approximately US$4.6 million). Afterwards, the address deposited all these ETHs into Aave. Currently, there are 23,786 AETHWETHs in his wallet.

These actions do not seem to be a "bet rebound" on a whim. It is a clear signal that the on-chain data resonates with the real market: ETH is being embraced by big funds again.

Why ETH? Why is it now

Behind ETH's counter-trend fund-absorbing, the market is not without clues.

Since the beginning of 2025, the Ethereum Foundation has launched rare reforms to improve operational efficiency through "self-slimming" and team restructuring. This move is interpreted by the market as a signal that the Ethereum ecosystem is moving towards more mature and sustainable development.

Following MicroStrategy's inclusion of BTC on its balance sheet, ETH has also begun to become the new favorite of corporate financial reserves. SharpLink Gaming, a US-listed company, recently announced that it would include ETH in its asset allocation. In addition, according to Bloomberg, at least three Nasdaq listed companies are evaluating ETH as a long-term investment asset, trying to replicate MicroStrategy's "growth flywheel" model. This trend shows that traditional finance’s recognition of ETH is deepening.

According to Deribit data, the volume of ETH call options has continued to rise since June, indicating that market expectations for a short-term rebound in ETH have increased.

Image source from @Amberdataio

Who is gathering "ETH Multi-English Army"?

On June 11, a suspected Cumberland-related wallet withdraws 10,200 ETH (approximately $28.54 million) from Binance. The address had deposited USDC 30 million to Binance for position building 20 hours ago, when the ETH price was in the range of US$2,790.

The one with the most popular bulls in this round (especially in the Chinese-speaking circle) is Trend Research. The institution has continued to go long since ETH of US$1,400 in this round, and currently holds 142,000 ETH. Founder Jack Yi Mingpai holds 100,000 long orders for ETH options.

More dramatically, ETH became the "financial target" of hackers: it stole a variety of tokens worth $23 million from the Bitrue Exchange in April 2023, and then exchanged these assets for ETH, but sold 4,207 of them for $3,885 for DAI.

On June 12, the hacker transferred 5111.5 ETH and 16.345 million DAI to a new address, and then bought 16.345 million DAI for 2,762 USD to 5,917.8 ETH. Then all 11,029.3 ETH ($30.46 million) were washed away through Tornado.

That is to say, the $23 million assets stolen by the hacker from Bitrue were eventually exchanged for 12,079 ETH and transferred through Tornado, and the value also became $32.36 million, an increase of $9.36 million from the original value.

Focus on the future: Where can BTC stop falling? Can ETH break the

deadlock?

Caroline Moron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a crypto derivative liquidity provider, analyzed: "Cryptocurrencies reacted negatively to the news of Israel's attack on Iran, consistent with the performance of major risk assets. We expect BTC to find technical support around $101,000, but geopolitical news will remain the dominant factor in price movements in the near term."

The situation in the Middle East is still highly uncertain, and risky assets are hard to say to recover in the short term. But ETH's counter-trend fundraising undoubtedly sends a signal: the market is still looking for certain assets, and ETH may be moving out of the "copy resonance".

In contrast, the situation of altcoins is not optimistic. Rui, investment manager at HashKey Capital, posted a statement saying: The liquidity of altcoins has reached a freezing point. There is no buying and selling order at the market, and no one takes over the favorable price. The new currency fell within 30 seconds after it was launched, and everything turned into a negative decline.

However, there is no good news. Recently, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said that the SEC is developing an "innovation exemption" policy for DeFi platforms. Atkins said it has asked staff to study amendments to provide regulatory exemptions for the on-chain financial system, allowing entities under the jurisdiction of SEC to quickly launch on-chain products. If this policy is implemented, it means a loosening of DeFi supervision, and it will directly benefit the expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem and enhance the intrinsic value of ETH.

However, this also raises a key question: Does the rise of ETH herald the return of the "copy season"? The answer may not be optimistic. At present, ETH's money-making ability relies more on institutions' large-scale protection. So, if even ETH has to rely on institutions to protect the market, what can other counterfeits be left?