HTX DeepThink: US inflation cools down, positive news releases in a concentrated manner. How long will this wave of market last?

Since May, macro positives have continued, inflation data has cooled beyond expectations, tariff war has gradually eased, coupled with the Fed's phased release of net liquidity, Bitcoin has returned to above $100,000, and mainstream assets such as ETH and SOL have strengthened simultaneously. But behind the strong rebound, the market also has hidden risks of volatility. In this issue of HTX DeepThink, HTX Research Chloe (@ ChloeTalk1 ) takes you to disassemble macro-driven, institutional behavior and market structure, and jointly judge the sustainability of this round of market.

**Expectations of interest rate cuts strengthened, Fed net liquidity

rebounded, and market gained support**

The US April CPI data released on May 13, 2025 showed that US inflation further cooled down, strengthening market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. The overall CPI annual rate was 2.3% (expected 2.4%, the previous value was 2.6%), the lowest since March 2021; the core CPI annual rate was 2.8% (expected 3.0%). Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that in order to deal with the Trump tariffs implemented in early April, some companies have replenished their inventory in advance, and have delayed the transmission of costs to consumer prices in the short term. Commodity prices remained unchanged month-on-month in April, and only rose 0.1% after excluding food and energy, indicating that the current tariff impact is still relatively moderate. But retailers have already reminded that prices may have to be raised in the future, and the Fed's more concerned PCE inflation (2.3% in March) is still higher than the 2% policy target.

The phased release of macro liquidity also provides support for the market. The Fed's total assets rebounded slightly from $6.70 trillion on April 30 to $6.73 trillion in early May, while FED Net Liquidity (balance sheet + TGA-RRP) rose from $4.89 trillion to $4.94 trillion during the same period, releasing about $50 billion in net liquidity. The U.S. Treasury Department's TGA balance rose to $583 billion, while the RRP balance fell to a historic low of $78 billion. The rotational improvement in liquidity is mainly driven by the Fed's QT slowdown (the upper limit of Treasury redemption to $5 billion), the return of fiscal funds in the tax quarter and the outflow of money market funds from RRP. It should be noted that if the Ministry of Finance conducts large-scale TGA replenishment after the debt ceiling agreement is reached from July to August, and the RRP buffer pool is almost exhausted, it may tighten system liquidity again, putting pressure on risky assets.

**Institutions continue to increase their positions, but on-chain and

option data suggest risks**

Driven by macro-optimism, funds in the crypto market have significantly returned. Bitcoin (BTC) futures open contract (OI) remained high, with CME data showing that it was about 660,000 BTC, accounting for 3.4% of the spot circulation, indicating that institutional funds continue to allocate. The crypto trading platform BTC OI also increased by 12%, with positions mainly concentrated around $100,000. The Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) derivatives markets also rebounded strongly, with ETH OI growing 15% since the first week of May and SOL rebounding 18% since the end of April. On-chain data shows that the proportion of ETH short-term holders' profit address has risen to about 90%, and SOL is 88%, approaching the historical top threshold (>90% is usually a phased top warning), and the risk of short-term profit-taking issuance has increased.

Deribit data shows that the implicit volatility (IV) of the BTC options market in recent months has dropped to 58% since 65% before the CPI was announced, reflecting the market's expectations of short-term volatility stabilization. Some institutions have begun to sell options to earn premiums. The Ethereum options market is showing a long-month bullish structure, with high strike price call options trading at $4,000-$5,000 expiration in December, indicating that institutional investors are planning the next round of upward trend ahead of schedule at a low level.

**Overall pattern: Structural long + short-term oscillation

consolidation**

Overall, the release of macro liquidity, the enhanced interest rate cut expectations of CPI cooling, the continuous allocation of institutional funds and the recovery of risk preferences in derivatives markets have jointly promoted a strong rebound in core crypto assets such as BTC, ETH, and SOL in May. However, in the short term, the profit ratio of BTC and ETH holders in the short term is high, and coupled with the dense leverage positions of derivatives, if the price breaks through or falls below the key technical level, it may trigger a concentrated profit-taking settlement and a strong flat-chain reaction, causing large fluctuations. The overall market structure is still mainly composed of medium-term structural longs + short-term oscillation consolidation .

SEC intends to promote tokenized securities exemption

Meanwhile, after the Trump Media Group planned to launch the "DJT token" incident that we previously analyzed, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Hester Peirce publicly disclosed that the SEC Crypto Asset Task Force is studying a "tokenized securities registration exemption mechanism." According to the draft content, the mechanism will allow some companies to issue, trade and settle qualified tokenized securities through distributed ledger technology (DLT) without completing the traditional securities registration process.

To ensure market security and compliance, the exemption system still has strict conditions: enterprises must abide by the basic laws and regulations on anti-fraud and anti-market manipulation, provide users with full disclosure of information on platform operations, smart contract structure, conflicts of interest and potential risks, accept supervision and inspection by SEC staff, and have sufficient operational financial resources; at the same time, participants who provide crypto-hosting services must establish on-chain security policies and disclose custody arrangements. In the early stage of the system, restrictions will be placed on the types, issuance scale and transaction liquidity of tokenized securities. Only after the pilot operation is stable and the regulatory goals are achieved can the scope of application be relaxed in stages. If this mechanism is implemented, it will provide dual support for policy legitimacy and institutional innovation for practical tokens such as DJT with strong political background and both application scenarios and traffic effects.

Note: The content of this article is not an investment opinion, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation for any investment product.

About HTX DeepThink

HTX DeepThink is an encryption market insight column created by Huobi HTX. It focuses on the global macro trend, core economic data and crypto industry hotspots, injects new thinking power into the market, and helps readers " find order in chaos " in the unpredictable crypto world.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is an exclusive research department under HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis of a wide range of fields such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-based insights and strategic forward-looking, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting smart decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research has always been at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry ideas, and promoting an in-depth understanding of changing market dynamics.