Have we reached the last step of the Bitcoin bull market?

Author: Ben Strack, Block; Translated by: Baishui, Golden Finance

For some time, I have been emailing John Glover, Chief Information Officer at Ledn.

But I was finally able to meet him in person at the Digital Assets Summit.

Glover, who served as managing director of TD Securities and Barclays, used Elliott Wave Theory (a price pattern related to investor mood and psychological changes) to predict BTC prices.

Essentially, the theory goes like this: a market with strong liquidity will move towards the main trend in the form of five waves (three "motivation" stages drive prices up, with two downward "correction" stages in the middle). Then there are three waves that are opposite to that trend.

Traders sometimes use this theory in conjunction with other technical analysis to identify possible entry and exit points.

Last week, we may be approaching the end of the fourth wave (downward trend) in this broader upward trend in BTC prices , which began in 2023 with a price of around $16,000. He noted that the market was not impressed by Donald Trump’s pro-cryptocurrency comments made at last week’s meeting.

BTC performance since January 2023. Source: TradingView.

Regardless of whether the fourth wave officially ends or not, Glover expects the fifth wave to cause BTC prices to rise between $130,000 and $135,000 in the first quarter of 2026.

Apart from the specific price level, I asked Glover how people view Bitcoin – a safe haven for some and a risky asset for others.

“Although we have deep liquidity, there aren’t enough participants [Bitcoin] that they haven’t fully understood what it is and formed that view,” he said.

Those who believe that BTC is a “digital gold” (and inflation hedge) may increase their Bitcoin ETF positions as prices fall. Those who worry that BTC rose to about $109,000 are just the result of a “Trump surge” may quit in panic.

“To me, [bitcoin] is digital gold, and once more traditional financial players join in, it will start tracking gold more closely,” Glover **** Added.

Nearly one in five financial advisers surveyed did not allocate cryptocurrencies to their clients and planned to increase this exposure in 2025 (more than double the 8% of the previous year). But those who haven't promised it may hope to see BTC rise again before they do so, Glover said.

These are often trickier positions.

“If people had it in their portfolio, I don’t think they would panic because of the price pullback,” Glover said. “I think they’ll say, ‘Well, it’s only 1% of my portfolio and I’m happy to hold it for a long time.’”