HashKey Jeffrey: A perspective on the reconstruction of global financial order from the US Crypto Reserve Act

On March 7, 2025, the Trump administration completed a historic institutional breakthrough with the Bitcoin Strategic Reserves Act. By including the 200,000 BTC (6% of the circulation) judicially confiscated into the national reserves of permanent bans, the United States has achieved supply-side reforms to the Bitcoin market for the first time. This "zero-cost increase" mechanism cleverly avoids fiscal disputes. Its deep value lies in: through institutional rights confirmation, Bitcoin will be included in the national financial infrastructure, laying the foundation for the monetary sovereignty game in the digital age.

At the White House cryptocurrency summit held the next day, the Trump administration announced the acceleration of the legislative process of the Stable Coin Responsibility Act, marking that the US cryptocurrency regulatory system has officially entered a new stage of systematic reconstruction. A new prologue has been opened.

**Bitcoin Strategic Reserves Act Implemented: "National-level Locking

Positions"**

On March 7, 2025, the US cryptocurrency regulatory policy ushered in a historic breakthrough. The Trump administration officially signed the Bitcoin Strategic Reserves Act, which transferred the 200,000 Bitcoins accumulated and confiscated by the judicial department to national strategic reserve assets and established a permanent ban mechanism. Although the bill did not directly expand the scale of government Bitcoin purchases, it can be said to be a "national lock-up" by freezing nearly 6% of Bitcoin circulation, which has substantially reconstructed the market supply and demand pattern. In the medium and long term, the bill has strengthened the "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin through institutional rights confirmation, forming policy coordination with the "Bitcoin Tax Acceptance Act" first implemented by Texas, marking a key transformation of the US cryptocurrency regulatory paradigm.

The original "zero cost increase" mechanism of the bill allows continuous expansion of reserve scale through compliant judicial procedures, which not only avoids political disputes in traditional fiscal expenditures, but also reserves operational space for subsequent policy adjustments. It is worth noting that the "Bitcoin Tax Deduction Act" promoted simultaneously in Texas shows that the state government is competing for the right to speak in the crypto economy through institutional innovation. This regulatory linkage between federal and state governments has promoted the United States to quickly build the world's first multi-level crypto asset supervision system, laying the foundation for establishing its global crypto compliance center.

However, judging from the market's performance, the bill was partially regarded as negative because the US government did not buy coins directly at the beginning of its announcement, resulting in the price of Bitcoin rising and falling. Then, the long-term positive views in the future began to extend, and then a sharp rebound began. The market's reaction to this was a price of $91,000. In fact, when Trump announced that he would use Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve, the market had fully responded to the positive news, and other countries around the world needed to respond one after another in the future.

The implementation of the US Bitcoin strategic reserve policy may trigger a global chain reaction. If other major global economies follow the examples and establish strategic reserves of cryptocurrencies, based on the supply and demand elasticity theoretical model, this structural change will allow Bitcoin price to obtain at least 2-3 orders of magnitude of value revaluation space, fundamentally reshaping the global crypto asset valuation system. (It should be noted that if countries like Elvador, which have a small economic scale, adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve in the future, the impact on the reshaping of its value range will be little, unless the situation occurs more intensively and continuously)

Further thinking, the far-reaching impact of this bill lies in the competition for financial discourse behind the strategic reserve policy. Historical experience shows that the United States has successfully grasped the pricing power of global commodities by establishing a strategic oil reserve and gold reserve system. The current "American regulatory framework output" trend presented by the Bitcoin market is essentially an extension of currency sovereignty in the digital age. For other countries, whether to establish strategic reserves of crypto assets has exceeded the scope of pure economic decision-making and evolved into a strategic choice for national financial security in the digital economy era must be paid attention to.

Stablecoin legislation and banking system integration: "Speculation-driven" to "technical empowerment"

The implementation of Bitcoin strategic reserve policy has brought huge fluctuations to the market. What the market was looking forward to at that time was the White House Cryptocurrency Summit on March 8. Looking back at the summit, the content of the summit is notorious, but the Trump administration has clearly advanced the legislative schedule of the Stable Coin Responsibility Act to be completed before Congress recession in August, bringing major industry opportunities to the integration of stablecoin legislation and the banking system.

Trump believes that the key to ending the phenomenon of "bank exclusion" of cryptocurrencies is to build a federal regulatory framework, especially focusing on standardizing the reserve standards and institutional access qualifications for stablecoin issuance. This legislative process is extended for four months from the Senate's initial "100-day legislation" plan. According to the legislative framework disclosed by the Ministry of Finance, the new bill will establish a two-tier regulatory framework of "federal charter + state-level license", mandating the issuer to maintain 100% US dollar reserves and access to a real-time audit system. The design not only absorbs the regulatory practice experience of the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), but also achieves standard uniformity through the Federal Reserve's federal review mechanism.

Licensed institutions are reshaping the power structure of the crypto market. The proportion of spot trading volume of compliant trading platforms jumped from 42% in 2024 to 79% in the second quarter of 2025, which is from the special report of CoinMetrics. The average weekly net inflow of $4.7 billion is 12 times that of unlicensed platforms. This fault-like gap is particularly evident on Circle's USDC stablecoin, with its 99.1% reserve compliance rate supporting an average daily transaction volume of $500 billion, accounting for 68% of global crypto payments. When the clearing system launched by HashKey Exchange in collaboration with Standard Chartered Bank and Deutsche Bank demonstrates an 80% increase in efficiency and a 60% decrease in cost, the technical moat of licensed players is clearly visible.

The technological revolution of the banking system has become a new engine of industry growth. Cross-border payment time is compressed from 10-60 minutes of traditional blockchain to within 3 seconds, and the settlement failure rate has dropped from 2.3% to 0.07%. These transformations are derived from the access to the Fed's real-time settlement system. The Bank for International Settlements report pointed out that the automated KYC system has reduced the cost of single-customer certification from US$120 to US$48, directly driving UBS Compliance Wallet to gain 1.5 million new users in three months, of which 63% have been exposed to crypto assets for the first time. This efficiency jump is reconstructing the behavioral patterns of market participants, with the proportion of long-tail users with average daily trading volume below US$100 rising from 12% to 29%.

The macroeconomic weight of crypto assets has entered a stage of qualitative change. The IMF's calculation model shows that every 10% increase in crypto market value contributes 0.2 percentage points to US GDP, a value of strategic value in the context of a US$38 trillion fiscal deficit. The strong correlation between the 25% Bitcoin volatility increase monitored by BlackRock and changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, revealing that the crypto market has become a new conducting medium for US dollar liquidity. Deutsche Bank's forecast further quantifies this trend, with crypto assets processing 35% of the global payment clearing volume by 2027 and gaining fiat currency status in 17 major economies. When technological empowerment resonates with regulatory frameworks, the end of this change will be a digital reconstruction of the global financial order.

**The coordinated reconstruction of macroeconomics and crypto markets:

the rise and fall depends on the US economy**

The above situation overall seems to be positive, but it does not mean that the crypto market can rise, because the correlation between the crypto market and the US stock market is deeply bound. The game between the Trump administration's fiscal expansion policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is reshaping the pricing logic of cryptocurrencies. From the most intuitive perspective, since the Bitcoin ETF was officially approved, the correlation between Bitcoin price and US stocks has become more significant. Bloomberg terminal data shows that the 30-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index rose from 0.35 in 2023 to 0.78 in Q2 2025. Therefore, the rise and fall of the crypto market is closely related to the US stock market and even the US economy.

The Fed is trapped in a policy dead cycle of "control inflation" and "anti-recession". The US economy is currently facing the most typical stagflation dilemma since the 1970s. The combination of "high inflation + low growth" puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: if interest rates continue to be raised to suppress inflation, the interest cost of $35 trillion in stock debt will swallow 17% of federal fiscal revenue (CBO estimates); if interest rates are turned to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, it may repeat the mistakes of hyperinflation in 1980. Historically, in a stagflation-like environment, the median volatility of Bitcoin reached 86%.

The turmoil in the US economy will lead to a contraction in the vigilance of capital market liquidity. In a normal market environment, liquidity contraction will trigger the entry of arbitrage funds to balance supply and demand. However, when policy expectations are chaotic, this self-regulation mechanism may fail: traders are more inclined to hold the currency and wait and see rather than actively making the market because they cannot predict the Fed's response function. When liquidity providers (such as market makers) collectively reduce their exposure, the market may fall into a "liquidity black hole" - falling prices triggers more funds to withdraw, forming a vicious cycle.

Industry prospects under the global landscape

The current U.S. policy shift is triggering a global regulatory paradigm change. The digital asset sovereign reserve model constructed by the Bitcoin Strategic Reserves Act and the bank integration path established by the Stable Coin Accountability Act provide a replicable sample of regulatory frameworks for the world. As the G20 countries gradually introduce cryptocurrency regulatory rules, the global market is evolving from the "regulatory arbitrage" stage to the "institutional competition" stage.

In the new era of intertwining digital economy and geopolitics, the reconstruction of the cryptocurrency regulatory framework has transcended the scope of pure technical specifications and evolved into an important dimension of national financial competitiveness. The current policy practice in the United States shows that whoever can take the lead in building a regulatory system that takes into account innovation inclusiveness and risk prevention will be able to occupy a strategic commanding height in the global competition of the digital economy. For global economies that are in a critical period of digital transformation, this reform of regulatory paradigm is not only a challenge, but also a historical opportunity to reshape the international financial order.

However, the revolutionary development of the US guiding the crypto market has also made the current fluctuations in the crypto market closely related to the US economy. While we are watching the US economy observe the crypto market, we need to call on global participation in the construction of crypto market supervision to avoid the United States' influence on the crypto market dominance.