Gathering opinions from big names: BTC has experienced shock and adjustment, where will the crypto market go in 2025?

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)

In the past week, Bitcoin experienced a major correction, falling about 15% from its all-time high of $108,300, with the price once falling to around $92,000. Currently, as market sentiment gradually stabilizes, the price of Bitcoin has repaired to around US$96,000 and entered a stage of shock.

In the past few days of decline, altcoins have suffered serious losses, and the prices of many tokens have even dropped to the prices before October, smoothing out the "Trump effect increase" brought about by Trump's election as President of the United States. Nevertheless, with the arrival of the Christmas holiday, many people believe that the "Christmas robbery" will further intensify the market decline.

However, 2025 is approaching, and a series of positive developments such as Trump's inauguration and the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan are ready to take off. By then, the cryptocurrency industry is still expected to usher in a new round of "dawn moments."

Odaily Planet Daily will sort out and summarize the opinions of industry insiders, institutional buying profiles, and some on-chain activities in this article to provide readers with a more comprehensive perspective on the market.

Overview of industry opinions: Most are bullish, a few are bearish

From the perspective of mainstream people in the industry, most people believe that the current correction of the BTC market is only temporary. The main reason is that the new high of around US$108,000 broke through too quickly. At the same time, altcoin holders are eager to sell. , thus causing the market to fluctuate downward. As 2024 is coming to an end and 2025 is approaching, BTC is expected to continue to reach new highs.

CZ: Waiting for new headlines, Bitcoin continues to reach new highs

CZ, the co-founder of Binance, recently posted that Bitcoin will continue to hit new highs as we wait for new headlines. According to previous news, CZ tweeted four years ago that BTC "collapsed" from $101,000 to $85,000, waiting for news headlines .

**Cathie Wood: BTC will become scarcer than gold due to institutional

demand**

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said that Bitcoin is “becoming more scarce than gold” due to institutional demand, and she has previously predicted that BTC prices will exceed $1 million by 2030.

**Bitwise CIO: BTC has three unstoppable sources of demand including ETF

and MicroStrategy**

On December 19, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, pointed out three “unstoppable” sources of demand for Bitcoin, namely ETFs, Microstrategy, and the government itself as possible buyers of Bitcoin. "Ultimately it comes down to supply and demand. There's too much demand and not enough supply, so I think prices will be higher in 2025," he added.

**Trader Peter Brandt: BTC may continue to rise, with a near-term price

target of $125,000**

After recently falling below the $91,000 mark, BTC rebounded strongly this weekend and is now back slightly to around $96,000. In the process, veteran trader Peter Brandt reiterated his bullish view on BTC and stated that it may continue to rise in the future. In addition, other on-chain indicators also indicate that BTC has good future momentum. In a recent analysis, Brandt stated that BTC could reach $108,358 in the coming days.

 K-line analysis by Peter Brandt

However, he also cited technical charts to warn that BTC price could retrace to $76,614 in an upward trend, adding that "this is not a prediction," pointing out the risks in the market. He said the analyzes reflected "possibilities, not probabilities, not certainties." Additionally, he recently set a BTC price target of $125,000.

**Lark Davis: The current pullback is not the “end of the bull market”

and the market still has plenty of fuel**

Crypto KOL and industry analyst Lark Davis believes that the current crypto market correction is not the “end of the bull market” based on historical data analysis . It said: “In December 2020, BTC fell by 12% after a 77% rise from October to November. It then rose from $17,000 to $41,000 in the next 23 days. USD (up 136%). Something similar is happening now, with Bitcoin falling another 13% after a sharp rise in Q4. It’s not that this is the bottom and we may see another 10. -15% correction, but there is still plenty of fuel in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. ”

**Analyst: Bitcoin’s correction is highly correlated with Coinbase’s

sell-off since October 26**

The recent price decline of BTC marks a sharp shift in market sentiment, which has quickly shifted from extremely bullish to uncertain and cautious. Bitcoin’s pullback has raised concerns about the sustainability of its recent rally as altcoins take a beating.

Top analyst Maartunn recently highlighted that the correction coincides with Coinbase’s worst selling activity since October 26, when BTC was trading at $66,000. The increase in selling pressure is a clear sign of the market shifting from a bullish market to one filled with fear and hesitation. The combination of reduced buying activity and rising selling pressure suggests the market is struggling to maintain upward momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently testing the $92,000 mark for support.

**Bitfinex: Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by mid-2025 and will maintain a

mild correction trend**

Bitfinex analysts said in a recent market report that Bitcoin’s decline in 2025 will be short-lived due to strong institutional demand, predicting that the best-case scenario is that the Bitcoin price will double by June 2025, with the lowest price estimate "It will reach $145,000 by mid-2025 and could rise to $200,000 under favorable conditions."

"We believe any correction in 2025 will remain modest due to institutional inflows," the analysts said. They noted that while Bitcoin is expected to be volatile in the first quarter of 2025, "broader trends" point to its price will continue to rise, driven by continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and increasing global and institutional adoption.

**CryptoQuant CEO: This is not the traditional altcoin season, but the

independent market of individual tokens**

On December 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju issued an article stating that Bitcoin’s market share fell by 6% (of which XRP contributed 3%), but it has now begun to rebound. Currently, only a few altcoins attract new liquidity, and the scale of fund rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins is limited.

He believes that this is not a copycat season in the traditional sense, but an independent market for individual outstanding tokens.

**Trader Eugene: Altcoin investors are eager to sell spot, and the

market may enter a longer consolidation phase**

Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio expressed his views on the altcoin market : “The rapid return of altcoins (Alts) to these levels in less than 48 hours after forming wick lows shows that investors are optimistic about the altcoin market. "We feel extremely anxious about holding spot assets and are eager to sell. The market may enter a longer correction phase or decline rapidly in a short period of time."

**Analyst: It’s ‘Very Typical’ to See Big Pullbacks in Cryptocurrency

Bull Market**

Earlier, Bitcoin had just hit a record high of over $108,000. This round of decline in the currency circle had a greater impact on altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin. On Thursday, a group of U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest directly in Bitcoin ended a 15-day streak of inflows and hit a record outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.

Strahinja Savic, head of data and analytics at FRNT Financial, said it was "very typical" to see such a sharp pullback in a cryptocurrency bull market, while QCP Capital said in a report that the root cause of the sell-off was the market's "over-optimism." position.

Strong buying: BTC ETF continues to flow in, and countries and companies

follow suit

Judging from the market’s basic buying orders, it is still in the “hitting zone” of institutional trading. Funds including the U.S. BTC ETF, El Salvador, U.S. listed companies, and Japanese listed companies are continuing to purchase BTC. The cost of holding positions is the same as that of BTC. There is not much difference in spot prices. Institutions are relatively optimistic about the future performance of BTC.

**Bitcoin Cap Table: ETFs, Governments, and MSTR Now Hold 31% of All

Bitcoin, Double from Last Year**

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju releaseda pie chart update on Bitcoin holdings saying that ETFs, governments and MSTR now hold 31% of all Bitcoins, up from 14% last year.

 BTC holdings pie chart information

**U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF’s 50th Week Trading Volume Reached $26 Billion,

with $17.5 Billion inflows so far in Q4**

According to Trader T monitoring , the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$463 million in its 50th week, with a trading volume of US$26 billion. In addition:

• Bitcoin ETF inflows so far in Q4 are $17.5 billion (best quarter);

• BlackRock IBIT inflows were $1.452 billion;

• Other ETF outflows were $989 million.

**El Salvador increases its BTC purchases and aims to increase its

holdings of 20,000 BTC in the medium term**

On December 21, according to Bitcoin Magazine, Max Keizer, senior Bitcoin advisor to the President of El Salvador, revealed: “President Bukele has increased his daily Bitcoin purchases, and the mid-term goal is to hold an additional 20,000 Bitcoins.” December 22 On the same day , the El Salvador wallet address once again increased its holdings of approximately 11 BTC (valued at US$1.06 million) for its strategic Bitcoin reserves.

Previously, El Salvador reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to receive a US$1.4 billion credit line, but some requirements mentioned the need to "reduce Bitcoin risks"; International Monetary Fund (IMF) spokesperson Kozak was asked When Bitcoin was granted legal tender status in El Salvador, it said its use would be voluntary.

In the latest news, Stacy Herbert, director of El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, clarified that even after the agreement is reached, the country will continue to “accelerate” Bitcoin purchases as part of its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. Herbert also explained that Bitcoin will remain the country’s legal tender and the government will continue to sponsor several cryptocurrency-focused education programs. Bitcoin Office reports that the “1 BTC per day” purchase program will continue.

Additionally, the country has made additional purchases, adding 30 BTC to its holdings over the past seven days and 53 BTC over the past 30 days.

Australia’s Monochrome Spot Bitcoin ETF holds 272 BTC

As of December 19 , the Australian Monochrome Spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) held 272 BTC, with an AUM of approximately US$44.3454 million.

 Australian BTC ETF continues to increase its holdings

**Stats: At least 10 companies are pursuing or considering adopting

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy**

According to statistics , at least 10 companies are currently using or considering adopting MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, including:

• Artificial intelligence company Genius Group: currently holds 294 BTC;

• Worksport, a provider of pickup solutions: The company’s board of directors approves an initial purchase of $5 million worth of BTC and XRP;

• Amazon: Shareholders propose company board evaluate potential benefits of adding Bitcoin to financial strategy;

• MicroStrategy: currently holds 439,000 BTC;

• MARA Holdings: currently holds 44,394 BTC;

• Tesla: currently holds 9,720 BTC;

• Coinbase: Currently holds 9,480 BTC as part of its reserves;

• Hut 8 Mining Corp: currently holds 10,096 BTC;

• Block Inc.: Currently holds 8,027 BTC;

• OneMedNet: Currently holds 34 BTC.

Among them, Bitcoin mining company MARA previously disclosed data that it had raised US$1.925 billion through convertible notes in November and December and purchased 15,574 BTC, with an average price of US$98,529, worth approximately US$1.53 billion, and repurchased It has approximately $263 million in aggregate principal amount of existing convertible notes due 2026, and expects to use remaining proceeds to purchase more Bitcoin. Hut 8 surpassed Tesla on December 19 and became the fourth listed company to hold more than 10,000 BTC.

**Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings of 619.7

BTC**

On December 23, the Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced that it had once again increased its holdings of 619.7 BTC , spending a total of 9.5 billion yen (approximately 60.68 million US dollars), and the average purchase price was approximately 97,800 US dollars; its total BTC holdings increased to 1,761.98 BTC.

 Explanation document for holdings increase

**Glassnode: The bull market trend Bitcoin retracement has declined,

with most retracements around 25%**

Glassnode officials previously issued a statement saying , "Interestingly, as the market grows, the severity of Bitcoin's retracement in the bull market's upward trend has decreased. The deepest retracement in this cycle is -32% (August 5, 2024 ), while most pullbacks are only around 25% off previous highs, reflecting demand for spot ETFs and growing institutional interest.”

 Glassnode tends to retrace to a gradually lower level

On-chain activities: The number of wallet addresses increases, sleeping

addresses wake up, and long-term holders leave the market

On-chain activities show a polarized phenomenon: on the one hand, after the time scale is lengthened, the number of addresses holding mainstream cryptocurrencies has increased to varying degrees, at least 25%; on the other hand, the ancient BTC has been dormant for more than 10 years. Addresses are also waking up one after another, and many long-term BTC holders have slowly left the market.

**In the past two years, the number of non-empty wallets for BTC and ETH

has increased by 27% and 47% respectively.**

Santiment posted that the number of cryptocurrency holders has increased significantly in the past two years. Here are the number of non-empty wallets for the top four cryptocurrencies by market capitalization:

BTC: 54.7 million (+27%);

ETH: 134.9 million (+47%);

USDT: 6.57 million (+66%);

XRP: 5.75 million (+28%).

**Analyst: As of December 20, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from

exchanges this month**

On December 20, crypto analyst AIi posted that so far, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in December, and this trend does not seem to be slowing down.

 Exchange BTC continues to outflow

**Long-term Bitcoin holders have sold 1 million Bitcoins since

September**

In mid-December , long-term Bitcoin holders were already selling large amounts of Bitcoin, and their total Bitcoin holdings dropped from approximately 14.2 million in mid-September to approximately 13.2 million. Bitcoin is currently trading 13% below its all-time high of around $108,000, its highest level since Trump won the US election in early November.

According to data from Glassnode, long-term Bitcoin holders sold nearly 70,000 BTC on December 19, which was the fourth largest single-day sell-off this year.

**Multiple addresses worth more than $20 million were recently activated

after being dormant for many years.**

Bitcoin fell below $96,000 on December 22 and is down approximately 11% since breaking above $108,000 on December 17, 2024.

At the same time, at Bitcoin network block height 875,560 , a wallet that had been dormant since July 25, 2015 was activated and transferred 44.99 BTC, which was its first activity since its creation. The same user actually transferred a total of 59.99 BTC, moving funds from three old addresses (P2PKH) to two Payment Witness Public Key Hash (P2WPKH) wallets. 44.99 BTC of this amount comes from 2015, when BTC was trading at $290. Then, 43 blocks later, a dozen legacy wallets from 2017 became active, transferring a small amount of Bitcoin (0.00000547 BTC) at block 875,603.

This pattern of sending Bitcoin shards cleverly masks larger transfers. Once the satoshis have settled, a newly minted P2WPKH wallet will receive 99.999 BTC, worth $9.7 million at current prices. On Saturday, a wallet was activated after being dormant for 12 years, and 104.99 BTC were transferred. At that time, BTC was only worth $11, and the total value was $1,200. Today, those BTC are worth over $10 million. This transfer was also migrated from the old version of P2PKH address to the new version of P2WPKH address.

**Exchange BTC continues to flow out: Coinbase’s blood loss

accelerates**

Coinglass data shows that the current Coinbase Pro Bitcoin wallet balance is 733,076.34 coins, ranking first among CEX; 16.69 coins have flowed in in the past 24 hours, 14661.50 coins have flowed out in the past 7 days, and 70185.16 coins have flowed out in the past 30 days.

The balance of Binance’s Bitcoin wallet is 571,802.93 coins, with an inflow of 1458.46 coins in the past 24 hours, an inflow of 4199.11 coins in the past 7 days, and an outflow of 10412.79 coins in the past 30 days.