Feeding pig's feet? What is the reasonable price for Binance's latest Launchpool?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author｜Nan Zhi

Since February, Binance has launched five Exclusive TGE through Pancake, which has the characteristics of short service time and high single account yield. In addition, multiple BNB Holder airdrops and Launchpool have been launched, giving Binance users a lot of "pig-feet rice".

However, due to the outstanding yield of Exclusive TGE, many users have begun an arms race to increase their accounts, and the number of BNB investment and over-recruitment rates have been rising steadily. Therefore, this article aims to review the Exclusive TGE and Launchpool data in the past few issues and infer reasonable prices and participation strategies.

Exclusive TGE

Revenue situation

The past five phases are MyShell, Bubblemaps, Bedrock, Particle Network and KiloEx. Among them, the first phase MyShell has the least investment amount, with a total of 145,106 pieces, and the most is the latest phase of KiloEx, with a total of 442,985 pieces, with a growth rate of 205%.

The income of the order account for each period is shown in the figure below:

At present, the guaranteed return of a single account is still about USDT, which is as high as 2.6% compared to the principal return of 3 BNB. Even considering the loss of BNB in ​​the IDO of the circulation pathway is still worth participating.

The amount of fundraising for BNB is still rising. Here we refer to a key data

• the number of BNB investments of Binance's main website Launchpool. The average investment in the past 16 months has been 17.87 million. It can be seen that the number of BNBs is not a problem at all. The variable lies in the number of real-name accounts. However, since the number of users announced by Binance has exceeded 200 million, the upper limit of participating accounts can no longer be estimated.

Therefore, assuming that the ultimate investment is 10% of Launchpool, the market value of the token circulation is US$50 million, and 20% is allocated to Exclusive TGE, the theoretical income of the final single account is 3÷1787000×50000000×20%=16.8 USDT.

Is it feasible to short BNB if it is released?

In the second part of the figure above, we counted the decline of BNB from the beginning to the end of IDO. Judging from previous data, BNB fell in this range, and usually after the Exclusive TGE news was announced, the BNB price is often higher than when TGE started, so the current short selling strategy has a certain and clear profit margin.

Launchpool earnings estimates

The data of Launchpool in the past 27 issues are shown in the figure below, and it can be clearly seen that the rate of return of Launchpool has a significant downward trend. The average annualized rate of return for period 27 is 88%. According to this rate of return, the price of GUN is 0.26 USDT. However, considering the poor performance in the previous periods, it is recommended to estimate conservatively, and the reasonable price of at half the rate of return is 0.13 USDT.