Eve of the Budget Season Breaking Out: How to Build a Suitable Altcoin Season Investment Portfolio?

Author: cyclop

Compiled: Tim, PANews

These are the clearest bull market signals I have ever entered the crypto market in seven years:

• BTC is close to its highest price
• Retail investors' interest is near historic low
• ETH/BTC exchange rate goes out of a three-year downward trend
• Altcoin index rebounds from range lows

Every factor has triggered a copycat season. Now they are all gathered together and will form a resonance.

Is this really the beginning of the next copycat season?

I can't believe I would say that, but I really think we are finally going to see a surge in altcoins.

In this long topic post, I will analyze it in detail:

• How does the market mentality change and why it is bullish
• What changes have happened that ultimately make the copycat season a reality?
• Important future catalyst
• Main indicators and their predictive signals
• Which altcoins may surge
• How to build a suitable altcoin quarter portfolio
• How to study projects that are difficult to implement

I have been in the cryptocurrency field for 7 years and have witnessed dozens of market structures that triggered the copycat season.

Yes, the cycle does change a bit, and I have disassembled the process and reasons for the change in detail in the cited post.

But I think we are at the beginning of a longer-lasting altcoin season, and this trend doesn't require Bitcoin price to soar to $150,000 to support it.

The narrative surrounding BTC has undergone a fundamental shift, from being seen as a Ponzi scheme to: macro hedging of top investment targets, the sixth largest asset by market capitalization (and received S&P accreditation), fighting inflation, facing the primary countermeasures of countries that are isolated or highly inflated.

Bitcoin’s rise from its current position is no longer a necessary condition for the start of the copycat season.

Bitcoin’s surge (in percentages) will become smaller, and so will the plunge. As the market value expands, its price fluctuations become like this. Every year, the trend of Bitcoin becoming a store of value asset is becoming increasingly obvious, rather than a speculative asset.

This is where the altcoin’s “value” lies.

High-market altcoins, especially blockchain projects, are no longer regarded as "a substitute for Bitcoin." They are now seen as tech companies operating in the broader Bitcoin ecosystem. Ethereum is like Nvidia, Solana is like high-performance infrastructure, and so on.

This cognitive shift has also occurred in the past market cycles, and each time marks the beginning of the copycat season. Now, let's talk about what actually happened, ultimately making the altcoin season possible.

After the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum soared and broke the three-year downward trend of ETH/BTC. Every questioner becomes a believer. Bitcoin dominance has just experienced its strongest three-day drop since November 2024. The altcoin market sentiment fell to freezing point, and even after this slight increase, retail investors' participation remains at the lowest level in history. In my opinion, the Pectra upgrade has changed the game. The solution also solves the biggest obstacle facing the Ethereum-driven copycat season boom: the user interface and user experience layer problems.

Retail Index

Despite being adopted on a large scale, the retail index is still close to its historical low. This factor has historically played a key role in the early stages of past copycat seasons. Now, it is a positive signal again. Let me explain in detail:

It is important to understand a simple truth: assets hit the top when they are in absolute best and bottom when they are desperate and helpless. Altcoins are still in a difficult situation, but from now on, the only way out is to climb against the trend and rebound from the bottom.

Ethereum and other altcoins are rising catalysts? There are many. What causes the decline? Zero, the market is already extremely bearish. Even though it has tripled from the bottom, the retail index (partially) has not yet appeared or met the standards. Finally, it is time to be this: even if the altcoin has risen by 4 times, it seems that it is possible to rise by 10 times.

ETH/BTC trend chart

ETH/BTC has been in a downtrend for five consecutive months, which has had a negative impact on ETH. Both its price and attention have fallen, making it more difficult for altcoins to rise. After breaking through key resistance, Ethereum prices soared, sending a strong signal to the rise of altcoins.

Now let's look at some key metrics, such as:

• Global liquidity
• Stablecoin Index
• Copycat season index

All of these signals indicate potential trend reversals and liquidity influx into the crypto market, heralding the arrival of a copycat season.

But this copycat season will be different.

In the last cycle, the number of altcoins was small, so almost all of them soared. This time the situation is different: the severe supply surplus makes it difficult for all altcoins to maintain their uptrend. It is likely that there will be significant changes in less than 10%, and the key is how to find these potentials

Your choice depends on the level of risk you are willing to take and how much profit you want to make.

• Large Cap Stocks = Low Profit + Low Risk
• Mid-cap stocks = Medium profit + Medium risk
• Small Cap Stocks = High Profit + High Risk

Methodology of altcoin research

If it is a high market capitalization and practical token rather than a new Meme coin, it is best to pay attention to it, because the risk of fraud in this case is relatively low. Tokens can be analyzed based on the following aspects:

• Market value
• Liquidity
• Trading volume
• Listing of centralized and decentralized exchanges

Then create a list of altcoins you like.

Follow credible KOLs and investigate whether they have followed or mentioned the project.

If a project is followed by many KOLs but they don’t care about it themselves, then this thing is mostly garbage.

Analyze the project

Start a detailed study of the altcoins on your list

Check the following matters:

1. What is the core concept of the project? Is there market demand?

2. What is the quality of the product? Please check its official website and social media platform in detail.

3. Are project team members public? who are they? What is their background?

Patience + belief = a hundred times the gain

A hundred times the profit will not be realized within one day, a week or even a month.

Through in-depth research on potential projects and long-term holdings.

Continue to track project progress, version updates and ecological activity.

The most important principle:

Don't over-diverge your positions. Don't invest with other people's beliefs. The following screenshot explains the reason

in conclusion

Most indicators clearly indicate that the copycat season is coming, and all that is left is to be fully prepared. Remember: If you believe in everything, it is equivalent to believing in nothing. Don’t choose dozens of projects, select up to 5, and be cautious.

Only in this way can you capture the altcoins with less than 10% potential, which are expected to achieve more than a hundred times the gains. If that's not enough, look at this picture and you'll know.

0/30 bull market peak indicators were triggered. Strange?

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