Dialogue with DefiOasis: Grasp ai16z and other Alphas, how to develop AI Agent blue chip hunters?

Interviewer: Wuyue, Xianlan

Respondent: DefiOasis

This article is a text record of our interview with DefiOasis, a blue chip hunter on Twitter on January 26. DefiOasis's main business is the author/analyst of Wu Blockchain. She focuses on on-chain data and investment research analysis on weekdays and has been in AI During the hot period, the Agent sector sniped multiple blue chip targets and grasped multiple targets that were 10 times or even dozens of times, such as ai16z, ACT, PIPPIN, TURBO, etc. As of the day of the interview, the overall return was 7 to 8 times.

In this interview, DefiOasis gave a brief popular science on its investment experience, investment research methodology, and position building methods in the AI ​​Agent track, and systematically told everyone about its valuable experience and experience, which is for the majority of investors and even practitioners. It has strong reference value, and everyone is welcome to read it carefully here.

1. Wuyue: Can you briefly review when you started investing in AI Agent-related tokens?

Defioasis: I am usually interested in this kind of on-chain data analysis and on-chain asset-related gameplay. Since last year, my main focus has actually been on-chain. The motivation for studying AI Agent actually comes from my long-term exploration of on-chain assets. I have been observing on-chain assets since last year, but I have seen a lot on weekdays and invested less real money. The main reason is that I think on-chain assets are especially It's something like memecoin that can't convince me to invest a lot of money.

But the turning point was from late October to early November last year, when a phenomenal project Goat created a narrative like AI issuance of coins. $GOAT soared to a market value of hundreds of millions of dollars in a short period of time, and then Binance launched its spot and futures. , This incident made me think again about AI-related tracks. Of course, there were some things that had an impact on me before this. One was Worldcoin, which was published by OpenAI's Lianchuang Sam Altman. Under the narrative of OpenAI's Memecoin, Worldcoin FDV quickly reached 100 billion US dollars. many.

The second is $TURBO, a memecoin created by AI, which has increased by 200 to 300 times in CEX. From these two things, I feel everyone's deep interest in the AI+Crypto theme, and it also makes me sure that the targets related to AI Agent are worth ambushing.

So after $GOAT launched Binance, I quickly saw the potential of the AI ​​Agent track and felt that Binance had the ability to lead this track, so I began to spend time looking for some AI-related targets. There were several targets at that time that made my eyes shine, one was ai16z and the other was ACT.

From now on, ai16z seems to be much better than ACT, but at that time, Shawn, the founder of ai16z, was not very famous, and there were also problems with his way of issuing tokens, including token contracts. Because $ai16z has a relatively large fluctuation and low popularity, although I also built a position in ai16z at that time, my position was not large. In addition, $ai16z once fell below the market value of $10 million, so I didn't dare to buy it later. In the end, I made a heavy position. ACT with stable and larger holder size.

The first time I bought $ACT was around early October last year, which was my first move to officially get a position in the AI+Crypto track, and I bought about $3,000. Later, I bought it several times after ACT reached a market value of US$20 million, with an average price of approximately US$0.022, and I bought more than US$10,000. What happened afterwards was very surprising. ACT actually went to Binance. I remember that I was still attending the conference in Bangkok that day, and I was shocked when I learned the news. After $ACT was on Binance, FDV reached a maximum of 700 million to 800 million US dollars, and I threw out a large part of the tokens on ACT the next day, and the rest were still on hold.

Later I did observe that AI Agent can be said to be the only track that has developed from a general-purpose Pump.fun to a vertical scale, and then I began to go deep into this track to do some investment research. After ACT, I have also grasped some good targets one after another, such as PIPPIN, which has achieved a return of more than 10 times. Finally, my overall investment return on the AI ​​Agent track has been about 7 to 8 times from October to the previous few days. After the market plummeted recently, it has been pulled back, but it still has a return of about 5 times.

2. Wuyue: So what is your methodology for studying AI Agent? Can you give some specific cases to let everyone understand your investment research methodology?

defioasis: Many AI-related assets are very different from some previous AI projects. Recently, people are mostly concerned about the fair launch assets based on Pump.fun, which are held by the project party or founder. There may not be many assets in some large investors. In this case, you need to pay attention to whether the project party has long-termism and whether its background conditions can support the project. If the founder has no morality, he may abandon the market or open a new market. .

So my methodology for AI Agent is that first of all, we must examine the project from the perspective of people, to see if the founder really wants to do the project and whether he has the ability to do the project well. I can give an example in this regard, take the PIPPIN just now. In December, Solana and ai16z held an AI hackathon together. I noticed a Japanese man named Nakajima Yohei among the judges of the hackathon. I learned that this person is working on an AI Agent project, which is PIPPIN, which is a child-oriented AI Agent project. I think it is quite interesting because I have never seen an Agent project with the same type. On the other hand, Nakajima Yohei himself is also a judge of this hackathon. I think that as a judge, I have to participate in the competition and prove myself. Obviously, this judge has a higher value.

Later, I further studied Yohei Nakajima and found that he was actually the founder of baby agi, and this project has more than 20,000 stars on Github. I searched for some information one after another and found that this BABY AGI is quite powerful. As a product of the AGI concept, it has been mentioned by many media and papers. I think this can actually prove this person's strength. In addition, this person is also a partner of a VC. They have invested in some Web3 projects, and some have even entered top universities.

At this point, I think from the overall perspective, the founder of PIPPIN is very powerful in both technology, capital operation and resources, and is a relatively prestigious person. As a relatively prestigious person and with real name, the probability of him being rug or abandoning the market is much smaller.

At that time, I saw that the market value of this PIPPN was about 20 million US dollars, and there were no people around me to pay attention to it. It was a target that had not been discovered by value, which was more suitable for me. I prefer to buy tokens in the range of US$10 million to US$20 million. Later, I spent a total of about US$40,000 and bought PIPPIN, which accounts for two thousandth of the total. Later, PIPPIN's FDV fell below $10 million, but I did not abandon the bargaining chips because I think the founder of this project has good background and technology, and the fundamentals are still stable. Short-term price fluctuations will not affect the long-term value of the project itself. .

I didn't manage these positions for a long time later, and then PIPPIN changed to transform from a single agent to an AI framework, which made its valuation increase sharply. After this news came out, even though there was no mature development framework, the founder and project itself recognized it, and soon PIPPIN's FDV soared to 200 million to 300 million US dollars.

Building an AI development framework essentially means a split plate. The market 's pricing for such a Framework is the highest in the AI ​​track, so I thought this project was good at that time, and I kept holding it without moving. The FDV reached 300 million. At that time, I sold more than half of the rest, and I have not moved the rest until now. I think when this framework really comes out to form a split model, it may reach a FDV of $1 billion or even higher.

3. Wuyue: What AI Agent-related projects are you optimistic about now and the reasons you are optimistic about?

defioasis: Actually, there are still many projects that are optimistic about, and I still have PIPPIN now. I usually choose a target with FDV around $20 million, and there are other aspects. I used to go to gold hunting from the AI ​​hacker group in the Solana ecosystem, and there are a lot of award-winning projects. I have been screening and studying the fundamentals one after another. Another thing is that Virtual is about to reach the Solana ecosystem, and some interesting projects may be developed later. Virtual has proven its success on the Base chain, so it is worth paying attention to.

Let me first talk about some projects from Solana Hackers. I will share one here, but it is not used as investment advice. Recently I observed a project called Agentipiy, which also makes an open source AI Agent framework. The core is to use Python to connect AI Agent to Solana's on-chain applications. Its roadmap shows that it may launch an autonomous narrative trading robot in Q1 and LaunchPad in Q2. The most important thing is that Agentipiy mentioned that it should participate in its token APY as a flywheel. Then I also studied its token APY and felt that the design was pretty good, although it was also based on fair launch.

But the team behind it played 40% and went all to unlock linearly for two years. I think that being able to do such a move shows that this team is still determined. Agentipiy's Lianchuang and CEO have been recommended by Solana. In addition, this project was created from the Soalna hacker, at least it has endorsements. , relatively reliable. Of course, this project is still relatively early in the overall stage and has great uncertainty. I will pay more attention to projects issued across chains to Virtual later, and there are many opportunities in this area.

If we look at it from the overall perspective, the AI+Crypto track has been slowly transitioning to the stage of AI Application, which is the stage of AI application. After various development frameworks become popular, we should pay more attention to AI+ application projects. I think AI+defi Not bad, it is the native narrative of AI+Crypto, as well as Defi assets and Framework, which may have some good opportunities, but this area is still in a very early stage and I haven't seen any good targets. I still keep waiting and watching now, and haven't bought any new assets recently, probably that's the case.

4. Wuyue: What do you think of the current AI Agent track and its market status? How long do you think the hot AI Agent will last? Is the bubble peaking?

defioasis: It has been quite cool recently, but I think the opportunity for AI Agent will not end yet, because the AI-related concept is a relatively make sense thing. AI products outside the Crypto circle are still iterating rapidly, both in terms of technology and capital. It is in an upward momentum, and I think this is the more important basic market. In fact, many AI targets are driven by external factors from Crypto. For example, Shawn, the founder of ai16z, was probably a fringe person in Web2. He seized the opportunity to create ai16z and became AI+Crypto. The best in the track. I believe that under the influence of Shawn, more talents from Web2 and traditional industries will enter Crypto to do things in the future.

In addition, I think that the AI ​​projects in the Crypto circle themselves lag behind traditional industries. Many outrageous movements outside the circle, such as the big moves of AI manufacturers, will be transmitted to Crypto, forming a new narrative and a new sub-track. In addition, AI Agent is currently the only vertical track that has transformed from a general-purpose Pump.fun to a scale-up.

Apart from AI Agent, there are actually not many projects that can get out of a simple memecoin. Another one that barely gets out of Desci, but it's also very cold now. Apart from this, no other track can go from universal to vertical, which itself shows that there is actual demand behind the market's hype for AI Agent narrative. The overall market of AI Agents has fallen sharply now, mainly because they were a bit overheated before, but now there are very widespread single agents, which has forced everyone to develop the framework and gradually become tired. The next may be the era of AI plus applications, AI plus some Crypto native narratives. If my point of view is valid, there will still be some new crazes and new opportunities.

5. Wuyue: The last question is actually about investment and trading experience, such as your position building and exit skills. Are you willing to tell you about it?

defioasis: We have been talking about investment targets before, but I think position management may be more important, because choosing a target is nothing more than looking at the technical resources and background of the project. Although it is now based on Pump.fun for fair launch, I think the research ideas are not much different from VC coins. It is nothing more than technical resource background, team endorsement, chip structure analysis, rat warehouse and blue chip address, etc. I will focus on position management later.

Suppose there is a good asset, it will generally go through three stages: PVP, second-stage consolidation, and the institute. Most projects will decline in the PVP stage and may disappear in two or three days. My previous style of building positions was mainly aimed at assets that had experienced the second stage of consolidation. For example, if you choose the target of FDV in the range of 10 million to 30 million US dollars to layout, I usually call it the "on-chain dessert range".

I have found some good targets before, and after rising two days before their birth, most of them will fall back to this position and then undergo some consolidation and fluctuations. I usually only do some position allocation at this stage, especially those that have experienced one or multiple 70% retracement, and can stabilize at around 10 million to 20 million US dollars, I will pay special attention.

If I see a pretty good asset, I will first add it to Watchlist and then rating these projects. I may divide it into S, A or other levels. The S-level tokens that can form pattern disks. For example, as a parent currency ecosystem, it can continuously produce sub-coins and make profits. Sub-coins can continuously create wealth effects. People need to buy parent currency to trade, so they will continue to The demand for mother coins is actually very similar to Pump.fun and Sol and Virtual mother coins flywheels.

Therefore, most of the S-rated ones are frame-based targets because they have the opportunity to form an ecosystem or form this model flywheel. Why can PIPPIN get up? The main reason is that the market has high expectations for the framework. As for those projects that are rated A-level, they are mainly judged from the narrative background, technical resources, and team indicators. For example, the founding team's background in the past is not bad, the background of the Solana Foundation, etc., or the founder has done some inspiration. I might give him an A-level product that everyone is concerned about, and it may develop into a new track, etc. Anyway, I will join the Watchlist first to observe.

Generally speaking, as long as it is an S-level or A-level target, I will build a position. Each time I build a position, it is about US$2,000 to US$3,000, but I will consider whether to increase or have a heavy position, and it will take more time. Observe to decide whether I will increase my position. I need to go to the project community to see what developers are doing every day.

After setting such a standard, I also have certain restrictions on the holding volume of each token. For example, if my single token only holds a maximum of two-thousandths, if the FDV is around 20 million US dollars, buy a thousandths The second is about $40,000. In fact, every increase in positions is to think about the benchmark. If you feel that the target is contrary to the initial buying logic, you will decisively give up the increase in positions, or when the target falls sharply below the range of 10 million to 20 million US dollars, I will do it. Give up your position decisively.

In principle, I would get at least ten times before selling it, probably at about $200 million to $300 million. In fact, in the final analysis, building a position is to ensure that you are cautious in increasing your position and gradually gaining your position. In addition, why you need to set a hard top like two-thousandth is to avoid adding positions all the way due to excessive blind confidence and making yourself Being trapped on top of a target.

Of course, as long as I increase my position, I will believe in my judgment on the benchmark. But what is mentioned above are some ideas for building positions with second-stage consolidation. I feel that everyone in the market is also familiar with the second-stage routine, but if you want to hold it, it is still difficult to play, so I am actually doing some lottery streams. The way of playing is commonly known as PVP, but at this time it is no longer limited to AI. As long as it is an asset on the chain, it will be involved.

In the absence of big markets, I think this may be a good choice, and to some extent it is also to prepare for potential big markets in the future. I feel that it is very important to maintain this profitable mentality. I am probably like this one. Condition.

Wuyue: It sounds like I have gained a lot today. Thank you very much for conducting this interview with us.