Dialogue Arthur Hayes: Sino-US trade war is a long-term trend, Bitcoin will exceed $1 million by 2028

Compilation | Wu Shuo Blockchain

Original link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GpQPiF-RBg

This podcast Kyle Chasse and Arthur Hayes have in-depth analysis of the logic that Bitcoin may break through $1 million by 2028. Arthur believes that the world is entering a stage of a collapse of the dollar-dominated order, and the United States' continued expansion of fiscal deficit and debt structure will drive long-term inflation and asset repricing. Bitcoin will transform from a "Nasdaq High Beta asset" to a "held tool for the decline of American exceptionalism" in this process. He pointed out that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have supported the market through operations such as Treasury bond repurchase, which has formed a new round of promotion to risky assets. In addition, Arthur also talked about multi-dimensional issues such as China-US game, policy response speed, trading strategies, altcoin rotation, and how institutional funds indirectly increase their holdings in Bitcoin through listed companies. The overall perspective combines global macro, political game, market structure and narrative evolution.

The essence of Sino-US trade war is a long-term trend, and increased

volatility supports Bitcoin price to exceed one million

Kyle: Arthur, we see three weeks after the recent tariff measures, has the market reflected these changes?

Arthur: I think people are still having fantasies, thinking “Oh, it won’t be that bad.” They do not really take the reconstruction of the global currency, trade and capital landscape seriously. They don't believe that China and the United States will really be decoupled. But I think such a trend of world binary is destined to come. Countries will try to get along with each other or choose a camp. We don’t know how this game will eventually evolve.

Trump has only accelerated the already existing trend. He launched the trade war in 2018, and Biden continued and strengthened it. Although he gave in a little bit, if you understand Trump's negotiation style, you will know that he always made the most maximization at the beginning, then made a little concession, showed a certain posture of reconciliation, and then put pressure on it again to obtain the most favorable agreement. So I think this model will continue to happen and the market will be more volatile as a result. But the core of what we understand is that the MOVE of 140 (US Bond Market Volatility Index) will immediately trigger a policy response. So there is no need to worry about Syria or any other incident.

When the MOVE reaches 140, volatility is sufficient to cause a direct response from the policy department. For example, one day the MOVE reached 172, and the US Treasury Secretary went to CNBC to complain about tariffs, saying that there was a problem with the bond market, and Trump immediately announced a suspension of tariffs for 90 days. You'll hear them talking about Treasury buybacks, and Fed's Susan Collins said they're "ready to do all the necessary measures." The market shows that the United States cannot withstand volatility, and the same is true for other countries. And Bitcoin can thrive in this environment, so we don’t need to worry at all.

Arthur: I don't think the United States can withstand the pain needed to achieve this deglobalization transformation. The shift will happen eventually, but it won't be completed in six months as Trump hoped. It could take twenty years.

Kyle: This is really interesting. Trump won the universal suffrage and most of the votes when he came to power. By my intuition, right-wing candidates should have won in the upcoming elections in Canada and Europe. But in the election we just saw, the left-wing party won. Many people say this is related to Trump's policy style, such as economic turmoil and uncertainty. Do you think this is the main reason? If the situation does not improve before the midterm elections, what do you think Trump and his administration will think?

Arthur: I think Canada's current victory is more due to a rebound sentiment towards the "51st State". It's like the United States is saying, "Hey, Canada, you listen to us." It's a "unity" gesture. There is a similar situation in Europe. The European elite actually do not agree with Trump's attempt to reach a compromise by ending the Russian-Ukrainian war.

So they united under the slogan of "We are Europe", emphasizing that we act for the interests of Europe and emphasize sovereignty and autonomy. And for Trump, they regard him as a "rude American." Therefore, I do not think this is an objection to his specific policy content, but more of an instinctive repulsion caused by the way and attitude he showed when he implemented the policy.

Review of the speech theme: Macropolisic policy drives asset repricing,

Bitcoin’s 6x growth logic

Kyle: You just finished your speech at TOKEN2049. I didn't catch up on the spot to listen, but hopefully we can find some replays later. Can you summarize the main points of your speech for the audience?

Arthur: In the third quarter of 2022, people were very pessimistic about cryptocurrencies and other risky assets. Why? As interest rates continue to rise, bond market collapses, stock markets fall, and something happened to FTX. No one wants to touch cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin fell to $15,000, and everyone still thinks it is going to drop to $10,000, that's the atmosphere.

Then, suddenly, Yellen introduced the so-called "non-quantitative easing" policy, which is the radical Treasury bond issuance strategy - issuing a large number of Treasury bills and long-term bonds, reinjecting the $2.5 trillion that was "sterilized" on the Fed's balance sheet into the global market. From December 2022 to the beginning of 2025, risky assets surged overall, Bitcoin increased by 6 times, stocks doubled, and gold doubled, and everything performed well. During this period, the Federal Reserve has not actually been significantly loose. What really promotes the market is the operation of the Ministry of Finance.

Although the environment today is different, the problems we see still exist. For example, new tariff policies, bond markets continue to collapse, stock markets plummeted, and people are worried that inflation will rise because China no longer exports cheap goods, and the market is full of uncertainty. Many people will say, “I don’t need to hold Bitcoin, nor do I need to hold these assets.”

But the key is that when volatility rises, policy departments respond quickly. Finance Minister Bescent went on TV and began to talk about Treasury bond repurchases. This is actually a way to alleviate the pressure on banks' balance sheets, allowing banks to lend more funds to hedge funds, allowing them to buy Treasury bonds during Treasury bond auctions and conduct so-called "basis trades". This is what I think is the bottom signal of this cycle - when the Finance Minister said on Bloomberg that it will repurchase and support the Treasury bond market, it is the moment of "doing everything long".

These hedge funds have bonds in their hands. They conduct a trading structure: buy bonds and sell bond futures contracts at the same time. Then he took the bond to the bank and said, "I don't have money to buy this bond. Can you lend me some money?" The bank saw that this was a US Treasury bond, which was a very liquid collateral, so he would lend them money and ask them to pay a certain proportion of margin.

But to make this arbitrage transaction profitable, hedge funds need to use a lot of leverage. The lower the leverage requirements of banks, the higher the leverage ratio of hedge funds, and they will be more active in such transactions. When the Treasury bond auction, they don’t even care about the price of the bond, but only the interest rate spread between the bond and derivatives.

Although U.S. debt has reached $36 trillion, such transactions are still in place. As long as they can earn a 10 basis point spread from it and magnify the leverage by 100 times, they will be very satisfied.

Kyle: Is this a bit similar to the basis trading when the ETF was first launched?

Arthur: Not exactly the same. This is the trading model in the bond market and has little to do with cryptocurrency.

Kyle: So you don't think they would buy Bitcoin ETFs in a similar way?

Arthur: No, it's all about US dollar liquidity. Hedge funds buy new government bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance. The problem is that as the bond gradually matures, it will be less liquid and no longer a benchmark maturity bond. At this time, the Ministry of Finance can do the "budget neutral and supply neutral" operation - that is, issuing new bonds and repurchasing old bonds. In this way, the price of old bonds will rise, the interest rate spread between it and futures will narrow, and hedge funds will make profits. They also got rid of the high capital requirements required by old debts, gained more leverage operation space, and then continued to conduct arbitrage trading.

In my speech, I also mentioned that although everyone is talking about Dogecoin, Musk's budget cut, etc., judging from the current data, the US Treasury's expenditure growth in fiscal 2025 was 22% higher than that in fiscal 2024. Although we are only in the first two months after the Trump administration took office, the trend is already obvious.

Kyle: What aspects of spending growth you are talking about? Can you explain in detail?

Arthur: The scale of the fiscal deficit is growing. The U.S. fiscal year is calculated from October.

Kyle: So you mean the deficit is bigger this year?

Arthur: That's right. Even with budget cuts, the decline in the stock market will lead to a reduction in tax revenue. This structural reality makes it difficult for the government to quickly compress fiscal spending. Even budget cuts may trigger an economic recession and trigger automatic stability mechanisms such as unemployment benefits, which will lead to further expansion of government spending. Therefore, the expansion of the fiscal deficit is almost one-way.

The Ministry of Finance needs to find someone to buy these national debts. One method is to provide more leverage support through relative value hedge funds and cooperate with the Treasury bond repurchase mechanism. Although this mechanism itself does not directly bring about new liquidity, it indirectly creates more dollars by increasing borrowing and leverage.

Kyle: We haven’t officially entered quantitative easing yet, right? It's just that the pace of quantitative tightening is slowing down. Are there other similar "non-quantitative easing" tools that can help the market?

Arthur: Yes, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). According to new regulations after the global financial crisis, banks need to allocate corresponding capital when holding US Treasury bonds. This regulation is intended to be responsible risk control, but it also limits the ability of banks to buy bonds.

During the epidemic, after the bond market circuit breaker, the Federal Reserve temporarily exempted SLR and allowed banks to purchase Treasury bonds without limit leverage. This leads to banks being able to absorb 1%-2% interest from depositors at a low cost, and then use unlimited leverage to buy treasury bonds with 4% yield, earning interest spreads and extremely high profits. The exemption was later cancelled, but now both Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan CEO) and Treasury Secretary Becent are calling for a new exemption.

If the SLR is exempted again, commercial banks in the United States will be able to purchase Treasury bonds without restrictions, which is actually another disguised "non-QE" way. Although it is a regulatory change, its impact on the financial system is no different from real quantitative easing.

Finance is the protagonist: Trump's policy stress test and the path to

Bitcoin million dollar

Kyle: What do you think of the Fed, and the dramatic conflicts between Trump and Powell we have seen before? At first he said that Powell was too slow and said he was a fool. Later, he took back some statements as you said, and even discussed whether to fire him. Now of course the goal is to cut interest rates. Do you think we will see a rate cut in May or June next?

Arthur: I don't know. But I don't think it actually matters. The key lies not in the Federal Reserve, but in the Treasury Department. Ultimately, what Trump is doing is testing the bottom line of the market. He said he wanted to fire Powell, but the bond yields soared, so he said, "Okay, then I won't speculate on Powell." He knew that this was a market tolerance border. He said he would increase the highest tariff, but the stock market plummeted by 20%, and the bond market volatility soared, which is another boundary. So he is constantly testing how fast the market can withstand changes, and then adjusts the strategy based on this and continues to advance.

Kyle: This is very interesting. I don't remember a president who has really "tested the pressure points" like him recently, and operated politics like he was doing business.

Arthur: There is indeed no precedent. But what he does is not more extreme than what the Democrats would do - the policy direction is the same, the difference is just the different tone and execution speed. It is precisely because of this that Bitcoin seems particularly valuable. Because we don't care who is in power, we know they will print more money. Bitcoin is the best asset when printing money. I can't tell you which stocks will rise, but I know Bitcoin will rise.

Kyle: In your speech you mentioned that Bitcoin will reach $1 million in 2028, right? So, what is the path to achieve this goal?

Arthur: During Biden's tenure, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a net debt of approximately $7.1 trillion. Bitcoin also rose sharply, right? From the current perspective, Trump's fiscal deficit in his first few months of office is 22% higher than during Biden's period.

Kyle: Does this refer to government spending? Or other indicators?

Arthur: It is the fiscal deficit. More specifically, it is the cumulative net fiscal deficit. Current data shows that the Trump administration's fiscal deficit continues to expand, and although they claim to cut spending, it's just a drop in the bucket and is simply not enough. Coupled with the structural aging of the United States, social security and health care spending will continue to increase, which is inevitable. The defense budget will only continue to rise, such as you need to reconfigure production capacity, manufacture missiles, ammunition, etc.

So the fiscal deficit will only go in one direction - getting higher and higher. Even if Trump does reduce the deficit ratio to 3% in 2028, interest expenses alone are growing exponentially due to the excessive debt base.

So unless you decide to "shut down the government", it's impossible to spend less than Biden. And obviously this is not what Trump promised. We already know what will happen, and we also know how Bitcoin will respond. Now with ETFs, the narrative of institutional investors has also changed — Bitcoin is no longer just a “high Beta asset of the Nasdaq”, but a “held tool for the recession of the U.S. exceptionalism.” They might think, maybe I should hold some bitcoins because I can't predict what will happen next in the situation in China and the United States, Trump's policies, etc.

Kyle: I remembered another person’s point of view that the government will continue to expand its spending in the future, and a perfect reason is to “make America great again”, which means moving all manufacturing back to the country and building nuclear-powered ships that we haven’t built over the years, all of which will cost huge sums of money. So they may propose a "trillions of economic stimulus package" to rebuild the United States, subsidize manufacturing, and encourage return. Do you think this is another statement, actually, "we need large-scale fiscal stimulus"?

Arthur: Yes, this will be packaged like Biden’s previous “Chip Act” or “Green New Deal”. Ultimately, politicians need to return to their constituencies with the results, and they need to say, “Hey, I’ve got you some good stuff.” It could be a new factory, some jobs, or a new chip manufacturing center. If Trump says, "I know you don't like deficits, but I've won you a bill, and you can build an aircraft manufacturer and a wafer factory when you go back." Do you think lawmakers will refuse? Won't. If they want to be re-elected, they must drive the constituency economy.

When banks see these government-guaranteed projects, they will be more willing to lend. "With government projects as endorsement? Then I am willing to lend money." Credit expansion and economic transformation, everyone has jobs, income, and is willing to spend. Yes, there will be inflation, but if everyone has jobs and a considerable income, will they really care? This is the script of my opinion on the future medium- and long-term fiscal expansion: the government spends money, the people support, and the economy operates.

Liquidity frenzy in 2026 may push Bitcoin to $250,000

Kyle: Do you think the top of our bull market will be in 2025? If so, what price do you think Bitcoin will rise to in this cycle?

Arthur: I still think the goal is $250,000 in Bitcoin in 2025. I think the real climax of liquidity—that is, the stage when currency creation reaches its peak—will occur between 2026 and 2027. Because in the United States, the term of the Fed chairman will end in May 2026, and if Trump is re-elected, they may not have full control of the political institutions, but they will definitely let someone who supports the "print money" and promotes the "make America great again" agenda to take over. By then, we may usher in an extremely dovish Federal Reserve.

So starting from May 2026 at the latest, we will see an extremely loose cycle, which may be extremely crazy from 2026 to 2027. All tools may be on the market at the same time: QE, relaxation of leverage ratio, treasury bond repurchase, yield curve control, etc. Everyone stands with Trump, and the market will start to overprice in the future, and then we will experience a wave of corrections.

Kyle: That is the moment when we should "live and participate in the market".

Arthur: That's right, absolutely.

Kyle: Suppose things really develop as you said, which is the "crazy phase" you mentioned earlier. This will happen before 2028, so do you think the million-dollar goal is possible to achieve ahead of schedule? Or do you think it happened at that time?

Arthur: The market may peak in 2026 to 2027. We will then realize that the market expects too high and the returns may be lower than expected. Perhaps the Republican Party will encounter election difficulties at that time and its policy direction will be adjusted again. In addition, we cannot predict what happens in China, and there are too many variables. But I think the world as a whole has embarked on the track of printing money. Once this narrative is deeply rooted, the market will over-extend its expectations for the future and will eventually return to reality.

Kyle: What is your current allocation ratio on liquid crypto assets? Distribution between Bitcoin and mainstream coins?

Arthur: About 60% is Bitcoin, 20% is Ethereum, and the rest are other tokens.

Kyle: Now everyone is talking about Ethereum. For me, it is the only chain where you can safely configure a $500 billion DeFi position without worrying about big problems. Solana seems to have not stood the test of time. What do you think of Ethereum’s current status?

Arthur: I think Solana is the most undervalued Layer 1 network in the market. From a fundamental perspective, it is very secure. It is a PoS network, with a huge number of developers and a high lock-in amount. These are real advantages. We are concerned with the rate of change and market expectations. Solana rose from $7 to $300 because of the surge in meme and on-chain transactions, and adoption is extremely fast. But even if it rose to 300, its market value still did not exceed Ethereum. What we do is price trading, not total market value trading.

So of course the price of Solana will rise. If there is a big monetary easing and investors turn from Bitcoin to altcoins, we may see Ethereum outperforming Solana, but it may also be the other way around, especially when prices start to rise and narrative changes as well. Everyone will say, "Ethereum is great again, it has the most developers", so the price also rises.

Kyle: So everyone will say, "We want to build real DeFi, let's go to Solana." Meme coins are popular, Solana is popular. So what other projects do you think are worth paying special attention to?

Arthur: We invested in Pendle, and we are also an investor and advisor to EtherFi. I think the narrative of the next stage is "basic season": do you have real users? Are they paying for the service? Are these revenues and profits fed back to token holders through the agreement? There are indeed some projects that meet all of these conditions.

I have been trading altcoins for ten years and have seen too many worthless coins. Now it is finally time for me to see "money in my pocket". I've had enough of those VC games and junk ICOs. I want to see projects that have real users, have already been online, and have started to make profits. If it is a new narrative that has not been launched yet, you can also hype it up and have fun. But if it is a project that has been launched, I will not buy new coins with high FDV, low circulation, and only price drops.

We are very optimistic about Pendle, the largest on-chain fixed income platform that has been profitable and gives back the proceeds to PENDLE holders. We are also very optimistic about EtherFi, and they are building a crypto-based "new bank".

I recommend EtherFi’s encryption card on Twitter. I've seen many similar products, but this one has a reasonable fee and practical function, and can bind Apple Pay. I think they will build up a very sticky user base. This card is like "American Express card in the crypto world".

They also promise to repurchase the tokens with their income and return the repurchased tokens to the ETH stakeholder. So if it is a project that has been launched and can do these things, we will be very interested.

Kyle: Do you have any suggestions for viewers who are watching this video, whether they are newcomers or experienced veterans? Especially in terms of asset allocation, rebalancing or entry strategies?

Arthur: You first need to define your "return threshold" - who do you want to compare with? At Maelstrom, our benchmark is Bitcoin. I can buy Bitcoin directly without paying you a salary. So you have to tell me why your performance is worth hiring you?

We invest in altcoins, early-stage projects, and as consultants to outperform Bitcoin. In other words, this is our "threshold rate of return".

Of course, for another person, the threshold may be an annualized 5% because he borrows money to invest. Then he must ensure that the annualized income exceeds the borrowing cost.

Or he may be a long-term investor, believing in the narrative of Bitcoin and currency depreciation, and wanting to buy Bitcoin and hold it for ten years, outperforming fiat currency. It all depends on your personal situation and goals.

So before investing, you must define your goals before you can check whether your investment has really achieved your goals. If not, then you need to adjust your strategy. Don't make excuses for a bad investment afterwards, "I bought it for that goal." That would be too late.

Bull market rotation logic: Bitcoin breaks the top and triggers altcoin

season start signal

Kyle: I think you are the same as me. Sometimes you will play in this casino and buy some high-risk coins. It is really exciting. When the price soars by 50 times, it is like taking a shot of dopamine. But do you think for those who are watching, if they also want to go to the casino to have fun, what is the proportion of this high-risk, high-return beta investment in their asset allocation?

Arthur: If you can't sleep at night due to price fluctuations, it means your position is too heavy.

Kyle: Totally agree. I've experienced this, especially when borrowing with Aave or Avalanche leverage, lend it out and invest it. Then, bitcoin falls a little, and you will be anxious to sleep. That's really bad.

Assuming Bitcoin returns to its all-time high, what signs can define the "altcoin season" is really coming? — — But before we get to the next topic, I have to interrupt. I have been using a trading strategy that automatically accumulates Bitcoin recently, and the results are very good. In just 45 days, I have turned 1 bitcoin into 1.033. If the trend continues, I expect to rise from 1 bitcoin to 1.27 or 1.28.

For example, if you start with 0.1 bitcoins and stick to this strategy without interruption or withdrawal, you will have 1.16 bitcoins in ten years. If Bitcoin rose to $1 million at that time, then this initial investment worth only $9,500 would become an asset worth over one million.

If you haven't watched the interview with Sequence's Ash, the video link is in the description below. I will also put a jump tag at the end so that you can click here to watch. This is probably one of the most powerful and stable wealth accumulation strategies. OK, back to the interview.

Arthur: I personally believe that Bitcoin Dominance will return to the level before 2021, which is about 40% to 70%. Once Bitcoin returns to its all-time highs, people will start rotating operations. "The bull market is back? That altcoin should outperform Bitcoin, right?" Although this "should" is just a theory, market sentiment is ignited in this way.

So everyone started to return to the ecosystem. "The bull market has been established. We rose from 70 to 110, then fell back to 70, and now we broke through 110 again, and maybe even rose to 150 or 200." If the rising trading volume appears and the technical figures are beautiful, then typical capital rotation behavior will occur. The market will enter the stage of "excavating junk coins and looking for hundreds of times coins", and risk preferences will fully recover.

Strategic reserves shattered: The United States cannot "print money

directly to buy Bitcoin"

Kyle: Do you think there is a possibility? For example, sometimes I fantasize about such a script: a country's "strategic reserve" begins to buy Bitcoin on a large scale, and then other countries see this true and follow up. The market has experienced a serious supply shock. Bitcoin begins to soar by 10,000 or 20,000 yuan a day, quickly absorbing liquidity in the market. Just like the phenomenon we occasionally see - Trump Coin (TRUMP) suddenly became popular, the altcoins in the entire market fell by 80%, and all funds were sucked in. Do you think there is a possibility that this kind of Adoption cycle with a surge in Bitcoin dominance will make everyone abandon altcoins and only Bitcoin will be the best? Of course, I think the funds will eventually rotate back to altcoins, but do you think there will be a stage where Bitcoin is extremely unique?

Arthur: Actually, we have experienced this kind of situation. But I personally don’t believe in the saying “strategic reserves to buy Bitcoin”, especially the country that everyone loves to mention most – the United States. The United States is a deficit country, and the only way to hold Bitcoins on "strategic reserves" is to not sell the part they seized from law enforcement agencies - such as those 20,000 Bitcoins.

But I really can't imagine that an elected politician would publicly say, "We want to print money to buy Bitcoin." This is too difficult to accept by voters

• not to mention that Bitcoin is often portrayed as a "geek club" and "currency speculation meme" in public opinion. Do you really hope the public feels that you are standing up for these people? I don't think this is possible.

What is more likely to happen is the "Chinese model": if you have excess power production capacity, then mining, and the mined Bitcoin is reserved in the treasury, but it will not be bought in the market. Or use surplus carbon and hydrogen energy to convert it into electricity, and mine Bitcoin to reserve it, like the UAE. But you won't just use the fiscal deficit to buy Bitcoin. You are more likely to "print money and cash checks" directly because that can be exchanged for votes. Simply put, the fantasy "strategic reserve buying Bitcoin" will not happen at all.

Kyle: I agree. We actually talked about something similar last time. Now, more and more companies are beginning to imitate MicroStrategy's way to buy Bitcoin. Although there will be no national strategic reserve plan, we do see that companies buy even more Bitcoin than ETFs. Do you think this trend will continue? In addition, the son of Howard Lutnick has also launched a fund similar to 21.co. Will these factors overlap and cause a real supply impact?

Arthur: We participated in that UPXI transaction, and their company also included some of the bitcoins on the balance sheet. After all, there is indeed a group of investors in the market who cannot invest in Bitcoin ETFs, but want to have exposure to crypto assets. Their institution rules that they do not allow direct holding of cryptocurrencies, but they can invest in U.S. stocks. So Michael Saylor took the opportunity.

He said to these people: "You can't buy Bitcoin? It doesn't matter, I'll buy it. My company's balance sheet is full of Bitcoin. If you buy my stock, it's equivalent to indirectly owning crypto assets." So their stock price was pushed up, and the trading premium was much higher than the net assets. This is their mode of playing. As long as there is a demand, they can continue to do this.

In essence, these investors are very clear in their hearts: "I want crypto assets, but I can't buy them directly. Then buy these corporate stocks that are already compliant and allowed to hold." So these companies adopted "financial policy strategies" to support their stock prices. I think this method will continue for a while.

In particular, Michael Saylor's "micro strategy" is now one of the S&P 500 constituent companies, which is equivalent to having the ability to continuously get money from the market to "add positions". Of course, such a pace may stop after Bitcoin volatility decreases. By then, these stocks will no longer rise and fall sharply, and the market heat may naturally fade away.

Kyle: Recently, we have also seen Bitcoin and gold trends getting closer and closer, and have begun to decouple from the stock market. In the past, Bitcoin and the stock market were strongly related. Do you think this kind of decoupling has really happened now, or is it just a short-term phenomenon?

Arthur: I think we've seen a certain degree of decoupling. But I still think there will be a wave of large-scale selling—the market will react violently when Trump once again declares that he will put pressure on China to increase tariffs in order to show his tough stance. Bitcoin may also experience certain fluctuations.

But now everyone is finally beginning to understand: the real key indicator is "volatility in the bond market." Whenever the bond market volatility soars, it is the time to release money, and this is the environment where Bitcoin performs the best. So I think there is still a need for actual market verification to allow the public to fully understand this logic.

You ask me if Bitcoin and Nasdaq will be highly linked again like in early April? I don't think so. Bitcoin should be more stable this time — it may not necessarily rise sharply, but it will not collapse like the stock market.

Kyle: Indeed, this trend has hardly ever appeared in Bitcoin history. It has been traded as a "tech stock" and is now finally getting rid of this label.

Arthur: This is a good thing, it's really great.