Crypto analyst hitesh: The real bull cycle is about to begin and lasts until October

Original title: Everything before this was just noise—now the real bull cycle begins

Original author: hitesh.eth

Compiled by: Asher, Odaily Planet Daily

Recently, the Bitcoin price correction has caused a significant decline in altcoins in almost all sectors, and some sectors have even experienced extreme retracement. According to ROOTDATA data on February 8, the AI ​​Agent sector has fallen the most since Bitcoin’s first correction on December 17, 2024, reaching 72.41%, followed by the Meme sector, with a drop of 59.24%; the GameFi sector has fallen by 56.96%; The NFT sector fell by 54.8%, and some other categories also had a retracement rate of more than 40%.

Source: RootData

Perhaps when the bubble fades and the market has a round of washing the market, the real opportunity to buy at the bottom will quietly come. According to the historical data of the chart backtesting released by analyst PlanB, all Bitcoin earnings appear in the red period in the chart (i.e., the first six months to eighteen months after the halving), while the blue period in the chart All are losses. We are currently in the red period and the bull market is expected to continue until October (from February).

PlanB analysis chart for BTC

In addition, from the perspective of the macro environment, the real bull market cycle of encryption may just start.

In this article, hitesh.eth analyzes the vision of the crypto society and explores two paths that the crypto market may face in the future: one is an anarchy full of speculation and freedom, and the other is gradually strengthening supervision and control. With the development of the market and technological progress, these two paths will become more and more clear, and a real bull market cycle may begin.

The following is the original content (to facilitate reading comprehension, the original content has been compiled):

Encryption should be an anarchic experiment

The birth of cryptography is no accident. It has been developed over decades, and thousands of cryptographers have driven the process with the goal of building a truly decentralized crypto society. In this society, legal identity is no longer a requirement, everyone can remain anonymous, governance, currency, communication, interaction and collaboration are completely driven by encryption technology without any permission restrictions.

In such a world, people can freely create markets, transactions are not restricted, wealth truly belongs to individuals, and the tax system loses control. The power institutions and banking systems have long controlled the economy and have long been deeply trapped in corruption, and the carefully constructed illusion makes it difficult for people to realize that they are already in prison.

The voice of Bitcoin Awakening

The emergence of Bitcoin guides the development direction of the crypto-anarchical society. It provides an alternative to the traditional financial system, allowing individuals to control wealth independently without relying on banks or governments. Money has achieved true decentralization for the first time, with censorship resistance, transparency and no permission required.

In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin white paper, which is not only a technological breakthrough, but also a ideological change. It shakes the foundation of the centralized monetary system, reveals the drawbacks of the government and financial elites manipulating fiat currency, and marks an important step to breaking long-term economic oppression.

Subsequently, Ethereum built a complete development infrastructure, comprehensively explored the application scenarios of blockchain technology, and promoted the first wave of the era of crypto-anarchy.

Everything can be tokenized

Crypto-anarchical societies need infrastructure to support tokenization so that everything that can be expressed in words or images can be tokenized and build liquidity markets around them.

This vision was proposed as early as 1988 by crypto-punk legend Timothy May in The Crypto Anarchy Declaration. He portrays a world empowered by encryption tools where privacy, freedom and personal sovereignty are realized and no longer under the control of government and centralized powers. May describes how encrypted communications, anonymous transactions and decentralized systems make oppressive institutions irrelevant. The declaration became the cornerstone of thought for Bitcoin and the broader crypto movement, inspiring developers and thinkers to see cryptography as the ultimate tool for human liberation.

If you put aside price fluctuations and focus on the nature of market development, you can find that last year, a key liquidity guidance mechanism was unlocked - Bonding Curve. This mechanism is able to create liquidity markets for various things based on textual concepts. In the field of image, NFT has completed this exploration in the last cycle. The current experimental direction is to create as much liquidity market as possible to meet demand at different levels.

Meme Coin is the market

On the surface, creating Meme coins means creating liquid markets that seem meaningless, but at the core is creating markets, assuming that some people like to speculate on "X" and provide them with opportunities to enter the chain, so that they can profit from it.

In this speculation process, people form beliefs around certain things that come from the theories or data they use. So, in fact, we are building liquidity markets for various tokenized beliefs.

Crypto Anarchy's Wild West

In a state of crypto-anarchy, people can trade opinions, trends, stories, articles, songs, memes, research papers, reputations, gossip, comments, recipes, and many other things that are currently unthinkable, all of which are crazy .

As written in the Crypto Anarchy Declaration, it will sooner or later reach this stage, and now it has the infrastructure to support various wild liquid markets, but the problem is that most markets are exploited by powerful players, They want to consolidate their existing gains.

Solving the problem of fair incentive distribution in liquidity markets is to create a reputation layer for encrypting anarchy. At this level, participants can verify the creator’s reputation before participating in the market, and creators can also verify their reputation before accepting users.

Two paths to choose in the future

The crypto market is currently in a critical stage, and there are two roads to choose from, each road has its advantages and disadvantages. The first path leads to more speculation and freedom, bringing about an ever-evolving crypto-anarchy. In this state, new markets continue to emerge, wealth is constantly earned and lost in the speculative cycle, and those who can adapt and act quickly will prosper.

The second path means stronger regulation and control, leading to a regulated crypto economy. It offers stable, compliant and structured investment opportunities, led by institutions and traditional financial players, providing a more predictable but controlled environment. With the United States introducing encryption regulations, the difference between these two paths will become more obvious. The regulated market will focus on the "cash bull" projects and Web3 business that generates real income, which will also be the starting point of the first cycle of the bull market under autocratic control.

While crypto anarchy will continue to change rapidly on the edge, with 99 likely falling if there are 100 markets, and one market will absorb liquidity from all other markets. The value of attention will rise, and those who can control this pattern will continue to win the battle. In a corner of crypto-anarchy, there will always be a bull cycle, and the key is whether you can identify and get the most profit from it.