Copyright season index rises to 24, over $35 billion flows into crypto markets in the past three weeks

Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering weekly key news, mining information, project trends, technological progress and other industry trends. This article is one of the news weekly news magazines, which will take you to take a look at the major events in the blockchain industry this week.

Headlines

▌Altcoin seasonal index rises to 24

Coinmarketcap data shows that the Altcoin Season Index is now at 24, up 2 points from yesterday (22 yesterday). The index shows that around 24 items in the top 100 cryptocurrencies in the past 90 days have surpassed Bitcoin’s gains, and the market is still in a Bitcoin-dominated season. It is reported that the CMC cryptocurrency Copy Season Index is a real-time indicator used to determine whether the current cryptocurrency market is in a season dominated by altcoins. The index is based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days.

▌Data: More than $35 billion flows into the cryptocurrency market in the past three weeks

According to on-chain analyst @ali_charts, over $35 billion has flowed into the cryptocurrency market in the past three weeks.

▌JPMorgan Chase: Upgrades China 's GDP growth forecast for 2025

Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JPMorgan China and head of economic research at Greater China, expressed his latest views, adjusting his expectations for China's economic growth in 2025. Specifically, JPMorgan Chase has raised its forecast for the annual GDP growth rate in 2025 and raised China's GDP growth rate from the second quarter to the fourth quarter (quarterly quarter-on-year growth rate) to 3%. In terms of monetary policy, Zhu Haibin maintained the forecast of the People's Bank of China's 30 basis points cut interest rates and 100 basis points cut in 2025, and believed that the central bank's monetary policy flexibility has increased. (Shanghai Securities News)

▌View: Bitcoin’s current rise has a potential double-top structure similar to 2021

Coindesk analyst Oliver Knight said that the price trend of Bitcoin this time is accompanied by the same on-chain indicators as in 2021, and may emerge from a potential "double top" structure. Oliver Knight explained that the first indicator to focus on is weekly RSI, which showed three bearish divergences in March 2024, December 2024 and May 2025, respectively. (RSI is a technical indicator that measures the average increase and average decline over a certain period to measure potential overbought or oversold conditions. Bearish divergence refers to the downward trend of the RSI trend while the price trend is upward.) Coupled with the volume at this breakout below the level when it was initially surpassed $100,000, which indicates that the momentum of this rise is weakening. Trading volumes on both cryptocurrencies and institutional trading platforms have declined, with trading volumes on the Chicago Commodity Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures not exceeding 35,000 contracts in three weeks in the past four weeks. And when the last time it exceeded US$100,000, the trading volume often exceeded 65,000 contracts, and three times exceeded 85,000. In addition, contract positions also diverge from the price trend, with current positions falling 13% from the initial increase to $109,000 in January, while the price fell only 5.8%. Four years ago, when Bitcoin reached $69,000, despite a 6.6% increase in price, holdings fell 15.6% from the original $65,000 high. Oliver Knight added that these indicators do show that the momentum of this move is weakening, although Bitcoin price may hit a new high like it did in 2021.

▌JPMorgan Chase uses ONDO public ledger to complete the first public transaction of tokenized treasury bonds

According to Fortune, JPMorgan Chase completed the settlement transaction of tokenized US Treasury bonds through public blockchain for the first time on May 14, marking an important step from a "walled garden" private chain to an open blockchain ecosystem. The transaction is provided by OndoFinance tokenized Treasury bond products and is implemented through the oracle service provided by Chainlink. Previously, JPMorgan’s digital asset operations were mostly conducted on its private chain Onyx, and the transaction showed that its strategy shifted toward a more open financial infrastructure.

policy

▌U.S. stablecoin bill votes as early as next week, and supporters say "it will be recorded in history"

The GENIUS Act, promoted by Senators Bill Hagerty and Kirsten Gillibrand, is expected to be debated and passed in the Senate as early as next week. "Next week, the Senate will go down in history as we debate and pass the GENIUS bill, which will establish the first regulatory framework for payments that is favorable to growth," Hagerty said. "The bill is a real bipartisan cooperation" and stressed that it incorporates "strong consumer protection." Although the bill has not been passed before the “motion to terminate debate” vote, the bill has entered the latest draft phase, with the text being adjusted to meet Democratic concerns about consumer protection and national security. The draft clearly states that large listed companies such as Meta will not be approved to issue stablecoins. The Senate will vote again next Monday, and it will take 60 votes to officially start the debate. The House is also pushing forward its own version, which will need to be integrated and signed into law by President Trump.

▌U.S. Senate Majority Leader has submitted a motion to end the GENIUS Act, which will vote on May 19

U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has formally submitted a motion to end the GENIUS Act, and a vote is scheduled to be held on May 19. This stablecoin regulatory bill requires that issuers with assets exceeding $10 billion are regulated by the Federal Reserve, and small institutions are regulated by the state; all stablecoins must be fully supported by assets such as US dollars or Treasury bonds. The latest bipartisan amendment plans to add three clauses: 1) stricter rules for technology companies to get involved in financial assets; 2) Strengthen consumer protection mechanisms; 3) Strengthen supervision of government officials (including Musk and others). The House of Representatives has previously passed a similar STABLE Act, requiring USDT and other stablecoin issuers to operate completely transparently. If the bill is passed, it will become the first federal legislative framework for stablecoins in the United States. Senate sources revealed that the amendment includes explicit prohibition on the abuse of FDIC insurance and strengthening bankruptcy protection clauses to win cross-party support. The results of this vote will directly affect the regulatory trend of the United States in the field of digital assets.

▌US SEC is investigating whether Coinbase falsely reports the number of users

According to the New York Times, shortly after US President Trump took office, Coinbase (COIN.O), the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, received good news: the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has withdrawn the lawsuit accusing it of illegally selling digital currencies to the public. But this is far from the end of the company's legal dispute. According to four people familiar with the matter, the SEC is investigating whether Coinbase has falsely reported the number of users in past disclosure documents - an investigation that began with the Biden administration has continued during Trump's tenure. The previously unexposed investigation focuses on Coinbase's indicators that it claims to have more than 100 million "certified users" in securities filing and promotional materials. The data was once seen in the 2021 listing documents, but the company stopped citing it two years later. Coinbase continues to maintain communication with the SEC this year and hired Davi law firm to assist in the response, two people familiar with the matter said.

▌Brazil 's central bank proposes strict regulation of stablecoins transfers

On May 15, several Brazilian government sources familiar with the relevant plans revealed that Brazilian government officials are considering issuing the country's first sovereign bond denominated in RMB. At present, this move is still under consideration and no final decision has been made. The potential plan to issue RMB-denominated sovereign bonds will be a significant progress in Brazil's financial strategy. Meanwhile, as part of a new cryptocurrency regulatory framework, the Brazilian central bank has proposed strict regulation of stablecoins transfers. The proposed rules include restrictions on the sending of stablecoins to wallets that are not controlled by Brazilian entities, reflecting the country's tightening stance on domestic cryptocurrency transactions.

▌New York Mayor Eric Adams announces cryptocurrency cooperation plan, saying New York is "open to crypto companies"

New York City Mayor Eric Adams announced at a press conference on May 12 that the city will establish a partnership with financial companies as part of its crypto plan. He said Figure founder June Ou and private equity firm Traction and Scale CEO Richie Hecker will help the city advance “economic development opportunities that use digital assets to serve the public.” “We are focusing on the long-term value of these technologies to the city and its residents, not chasing meme coins or trends,” Adams stressed. “If you are engaged in crypto, blockchain, Web3 or fintech, New York City is open to you.”

Blockchain application

▌Sonic launched native USDC and CCTP V2 to improve cross-chain performance and institutional support

Sonic announced that native USDC and CCTP V2 are now online, completing the upgrade from Bridged USDC Standard to native version. This upgrade "improves network security, improves liquidity, realizes seamless cross-chain USDC transfers, opens centralized exchange support, and provides institutional- level deposit/withdrawal channels." In addition, "Bridged USDC has been upgraded to native USDC in situ, and the contract address has not changed", and users and developers "no action is required." Binance has integrated USDC on Sonic, and other CEXs will also follow up in the near future. CCTV V2 supports "almost real-time USDC cross-chain transfer".

▌VanEck and Securities collaborate to launch U.S. Treasury tokenized funds

VanEck and Securities collaborate to launch a U.S. Treasury tokenized fund, providing investors with on-chain channels to invest in U.S. Treasury bonds. The fund utilizes Securitize's integrated services, which will be available on four blockchains: Avalanche, BNB Chain, Ethereum and Solana in the early stage, and will be cross-chain interoperability through Wormhole.

▌Uniswap launches "one-click currency exchange" function

Uniswap stated on social platforms that it launched the "one-click currency exchange" function, and is now online on the Uniswap Web App, supporting smart wallets with EIP-5792.

▌Ethereum Fusaka upgrade plans to introduce PeerDAS to reduce L2 and validator costs

Following the successful deployment of Pectra upgrades, Ethereum core developers have turned their attention to the next major upgrade "Fusaka", which is scheduled to be launched by the end of 2025. Proposals involving PeerDAS have been determined to be included to reduce the operating costs of Layer 2 scaling solutions and validators. PeerDAS (Peer-to-Peer Data Availability Sampling) is a data availability sampling mechanism that allows nodes to verify their availability without downloading complete data, thereby improving network efficiency and reducing resource consumption. This mechanism is expected to further optimize Ethereum's expansion capabilities and enhance the scalability and decentralization of the network. It is reported that the specific content of Fusaka upgrade is still under discussion, but the developers have reached an agreement on the introduction of PeerDAS.

▌Blockchain cloud computing company Nirvana Labs completed a $6 million seed expansion round of financing, led by Jump Crypto and others

On May 13, blockchain cloud computing company Nirvana Labs completed a $6 million seed expansion round of financing, led by Jump Crypto and Crucible Capital, and participated by RW3 Ventures, Castle Island and Hash3 VC, bringing its total financing amount to US$11.8 million. The company provides computing services tailored for the encryption field. Unlike traditional cloud service providers who concentrate computing resources, Nirvana uses bare metal infrastructure, and each server serves only one client. Nirvana has served infrastructure providers such as BitGo and Fireblocks, as well as agreement foundations such as Avalanche and Berachain. Nirvana also plans to serve as a front-end service to help organizations deploy on Internet filtering startup DoubleZero.

Cryptocurrency

▌Tim Draper: I 've been buying more bitcoins

"I've been buying more bitcoins," said Tim Draper, an early investor of Tesla and Skype, in an interview. Tim Draper bought about 29,656 bitcoins at an auction held by the US Marshals Service in July 2014 for about $19 million, with an average purchase price of about $640. The Bitcoins were seized by the U.S. government during Silk Road enforcement operations. Tim Draper has repeatedly expressed his optimism about Bitcoin's future potential, believing that Bitcoin can provide liquidity for emerging markets and guarantees to combat currency depreciation.

▌Analysts: Technical factors drive ETH to rise in the near future, and enthusiasm for capital allocation is still limited

David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional, said on social media, "This passage written on Thursday night still applies now: Last week, the rise in ETH was mainly driven by technical factors, behind which was a large number of mismatch positions, short cover and subsequent re-establishment. This round of rise was actually ETH rebound, catching up with peers such as BTC and SOL. However, we believe that such a price trend does not mean that the market has a strong desire to allocate ETH at a broader level, and demand is still limited."

▌Pantera CEO: Bitcoin still has the potential for excess returns in the next decades

At the Consensus 2025 conference in Toronto, Dan Morehead, founder and CEO of Pantera Capital, said: "Bitcoin still has room for excess returns for decades." He stressed that Pantera continues to maintain confidence in the asset class. Morehead advises investors to “invest in a wide range of tokens and risky equity” to seize the rapidly evolving market opportunities. He rarely disclosed that Pantera achieved 86% profit in its portfolio and had invested in 22 unicorn companies with valuations of over $1 billion. He also criticized the United States for its lag in crypto regulation, saying that "90% of crypto transactions and agreements are outside the United States - this is wrong." But he also said optimistically: "Election victory is a huge unlock" and hopes that capital and innovation will return to the United States in the next few years.

▌Binance Wallet will launch Privasea AI TGE

According to the Binance Wallet announcement, the 16th issue of the exclusive TGE will be held from 18:00 to 20:00 (Beijing time) on May 14, 2025. The project is Privasea (PRAI), and will be carried out through PancakeSwap. Starting this time, users need to use Alpha points to participate, and an additional 40 million PRAIs will be used for subsequent activities. More details will be announced on the event page.

▌Japanese listed company Metaplanet has surpassed El Salvador 's Bitcoin holdings

On May 12, Simon Gerovich, CEO of Japanese listed company Metaplanet, posted on social media that after increasing its holdings of 1,241 bitcoins today, Metaplanet's total Bitcoin holdings have increased to 6,796, a figure that surpasses El Salvador's holdings (holding 6,714 bitcoins). It is reported that the CEO of Metaplanet was once the head of Goldman Sachs' stock derivatives department. Since 2013, he has operated Metaplanet (formerly Red Planet Japan Inc.). However, the epidemic has caused the economy to slow down, and the company was forced to close most of its hotels, leaving only one operation. When its market value once fell to about $15 million, UTXO Management invested and led the company to adopt the Bitcoin strategy. Since then, Metaplanet's shareholders have grown to nearly 50,000, with a market value soaring to $2 billion, becoming the best-performing stock among companies with a global market value of more than $250 million in 2024, and recently announced the largest public equity financing in Asia ever, with plans to raise $750 million to buy Bitcoin.

Important economic trends

▌Trump: Consensus is that the Fed should cut interest rates as soon as possible

US President Trump said that almost everyone's consensus is that "the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates as soon as possible, sooner rather than later." Powell, known for his “slow action”, may mess things up again.

▌In March, China reduced its holdings of US$18.9 billion in US bonds and its holdings dropped to third

On May 16 local time, data released by the US Treasury Department showed that in March 2025, among the top three overseas creditors of US bonds, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China reduced its holdings. China has changed from the second largest creditor in the United States to the third largest creditor, and the United Kingdom has changed from the second largest creditor. March is on the eve of this round of turbulence in the US bond market. The US Treasury Department's International Capital Currents Report (TIC) in March 2025 showed that Japan increased its holdings of US$4.9 billion in US Treasury bonds in March, with a holding of US$113.08 billion, still the largest creditor in the United States. China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $18.9 billion in March to US$765.4 billion, the first time this year. After the reduction of holdings, China's holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds fell from second to third. Since April 2022, China's U.S. bond holdings have been below US$1 trillion, and the overall trend is on the decline. In January 2025, China increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds by US$1.8 billion, and in February it increased its holdings by US$23.5 billion. In 2022, 2023 and 2024, China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by US$173.2 billion, US$50.8 billion and US$57.3 billion respectively. (Jin Shi)

▌Fidelity Bond Director: Tariffs put the Fed in a dilemma

Fidelity's $2.3 trillion fixed income business director said Fed's goal of curbing inflation while maximizing employment is "pulling them in a very different direction" as Trump's trade war subverts economic outlook. Robin Foley said the Fed "has good efforts to fight inflation, but employment remains to be seen." She added that the central bank is in a "difficulty". Foley's comments come as the Federal Reserve suspended its interest rate cut cycle this year, which began in 2024, as Trump's tariffs could exacerbate inflation and hit the job market. Foley noted that market participants’ expectations of interest rates have changed “very unstable” over the past year. Trading in the futures market shows that investors expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in September, much later than forecasts at the beginning of the year. (Jin Shi)

▌Federal Barr: Supply chain disruption may lead to inflation

Fed Barr said the U.S. economic foundation is solid, but he warned that tariff-related supply chain disruptions could lead to slowing growth and rising inflation. Barr stressed the importance of small businesses and their role in supply chains and in the overall economy. He said trade policy cast a shadow on the outlook and added uncertainty. Potential supply chain disruptions are “especially severe” for small businesses, partly because they have fewer opportunities to obtain credit. He added that small businesses often provide professional inputs that are not readily available from elsewhere, and business failures can further disrupt supply chains.

▌Federal Chairman Powell: Zero interest rate lower limit is still a risk

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: The zero-interest rate lower limit is still a risk and should be addressed in the framework, but given the current policy interest rate level, the zero-interest limit is no longer a basic situation.