Conversation with senior traders: How do you view the current US stocks and Bitcoin?

Host: Alex, Research Partner, Mint Ventures

Guest: Colin, freelance trader on-chain data researcher

Hello everyone, welcome to WEB3 Mint To Be initiated by Mint Ventures. Here, we continue to ask questions and think deeply, clarify facts, explore reality, and find consensus in the WEB3 world. We will clarify the logic behind hot topics, provide insights into the incident itself, and introduce diverse thinking angles.

Career formation path and current investment varieties

Alex: We invited Colin, who has been to our program before in this episode. Last time he shared with us his experience and methodology about on-chain data analysis, which received a very good response. Today we invited him again, and this time we are talking about a bigger topic - transaction. The reason I want to invite Colin over again is because I have been following his account. His trading range actually spans quite a lot, including US stocks and encryption.

He has had several very exciting operations recently. For example, before Bitcoin fell sharply, he began to bearish BTC between 90,000 and 100,000, and lowered his position very early. He also sold US stocks in Q4 last year and bought in a panic low a while ago. Colin has also been sharing his views on transactions on self-media, and I always feel that it is quite rewarding. So today we invite him to come and have a chat with you again. Maybe some friends who are listening to our show for the first time, please let Colin introduce himself to you.

Colin: Hello everyone, my name is Colin. I run a Twitter account called Mr. Berg. Today I am very happy to be invited to the show again to share my views with you. I am currently a full-time trader. The two areas I am best at, the first is the analysis of on-chain data, which can mainly help me judge the large-cycle stage of BTC. The second area I am good at is technical analysis, which is more complicated. I have been optimizing my system. I am very happy to come to this show and share my views with you again.

Alex: Welcome to Colin. Colin just talked about on-chain data analysis. You can watch the podcast we recorded with Colin before, which contains very exciting sharing. In that podcast, he mentioned his views on this cycle, which has been confirmed so far. Then let's get to the topic today. I just mentioned that you are currently a full-time trader. Did you do finance from the beginning? Or are you gradually transitioning to this state?

Colin: This question is actually quite interesting. I may want to emphasize first that I am just an old leek and have eaten a large part of the dividends of this era. If there was no epidemic in that year and no subsequent surge, the outcome today might be completely different. So I'm just a case of survivor bias.

Did you do finance at the beginning? no. But when I was in college, I took the department of the business school. At that time, I had some basic financial knowledge in textbooks. But in fact, college will not teach you how to trade stocks and coins. At the beginning, I had no money on it and my deposit should be less than 10,000 U.S. At that time, due to some family factors, my relationship with my family was quite bad. At that time, I was still a student and had only one goal, which was to quickly be financially independent and leave that environment. When I was in college, I studied some simple financial knowledge. At least I knew what kind of market there was and what kind of logic these things were. I learned something very important at that time, that is, I knew it was very difficult to double my performance in the financial market. For the stock god Buffett, his annual return rate has only been 20% for about 60 consecutive years. I want to double it in one year, that is, 100%, and the difficulty is very, very high. I realized this situation at that time. So at that time I had a deposit of thousands of U.S. dollars. If I didn’t work, I would lose it after eating for a few months.

My thought is: I only earn a few thousand Us if I doubled these thousands of Us. In this case, my goal is to go directly to work and find all kinds of jobs that I can do. My grades were pretty good in the past, so my main source of income at that time was tutoring, which was actually supplementing the education. Some of these are teaching in cram schools or tutoring for single students. At most, I received 11 tutors a week, all of which were teaching mathematics. At the same time, I also worked in a supermarket and took on some small part-time jobs, such as handing out flyers on the road, doing administrative work in cram schools, or working as a tutor. But later I tried to transfer to the tutoring area. As long as the tutor could receive it, I would turn off other scattered jobs because the hourly wages of the tutoring unit were really high.

In fact, there is another piece of money saving, which is the so-called increase in revenue and reduce expenditure. The severance part was boring during that period. I almost reduced all the entertainment expenses to zero, and the money was spent on necessary projects, such as telecommunications expenses, and eating. I used to be addicted to smoking. Except for eating and some necessary living expenses, I almost used all the remaining money to buy cigarettes, and all the others were saved in my principal. I would compress half of my sleep time at night or even more to study. Because I didn't know anything at that time, I needed to spend a lot of time learning anything I could learn. Later, I deposited a relatively large amount of principal one after another. I felt that if I used this principal to operate in the market, the money I earned might be easier to achieve my goals. This was the most critical transition node I thought at that time.

For investment products, in 2025, it is definitely Bitcoin, and then Ethereum. In the US stock market, Alex mentioned just now, I am not very involved in trading, it is more like investing in indexes. The so-called index investment is actually quite simple, it is a passive investment strategy. What I am aiming at is the market's reward, that is, eating beta, and I don't particularly want to get too much alpha from the US stock market. Because the biggest difference between the US stock market and Crypto is that it is too efficient and has a very large scale. For this reason, it is very difficult for me to get Alpha in the US stock market. So I will put more of the goal of hunting Alpha on Crypto. The part of the US stock market is actually investing in indexes. From last Q4 to Q1 this year, there was a special operation for clearing the US stock market. This opportunity only happened once every few years, and the winning rate was very low. This time I was lucky and I was avoided. For index investment, the best strategy is to keep it still after buying.

Going back to the Crypto part, I didn’t actually look at altcoins in 2025. The market conditions in 2024 are relatively good, and I spent a lot of time looking at altcoins. At that time, I would look at projects, hot topics, and tracks. I remember that at the beginning of the year, the Restaking track was very popular. At that time, an EtherFi was launched in Binance in February or March 2024. At that time, the effect of launching the new currency was very good, and it kept rising as soon as it was launched. At that time, I would spend some time investigating these projects. If I find that I want to place coins, I will go in and buy them as soon as the market opens. I can’t do angel round investment, so I buy it as soon as the second level opens. At that time, there was a lot of money in the market, and everyone was happy to buy these things. But the outcome is not good later, and the altcoins are gone. So at that time it was a more like a wave of flow. I think I should not go back to see the copycat in the medium and short term. I may have to wait until Bitcoin confirms the bottom again, and it is a cyclical bottom, not a phased bottom before I will pay attention to the copycat. If Bitcoin rebounds slightly, the altcoins will certainly follow, but I don’t want to eat the shorter ones, I want to eat the ones with higher certainty. So in 2025, on Crypto, I mainly look at Bitcoin. Ethereum also has some special trading strategies, but the trigger frequency is very low, so it is still waiting.

Elements of trading framework for mature traders

Alex: I understand. You have explained it very thoroughly just now. Colin just said that it took at least four or five years to get involved in some investment and business knowledge in school since 2020, and then gradually transitioned to a full-time trader. During these four or five years, his labor density was very high during the preparation stage of principal. In your opinion, what should a mature trader's trading framework include? For example, investment philosophy, professional knowledge, psychological mentality, etc., what key elements should be included?

Colin: OK, I dare not say how correct my answer is, but in my personal experience, the most important framework so far is that I will divide it into three parts, which may be different from what ordinary people think.

The first framework, whether it is people around me, people on Twitter or Telegram, who come to ask me, the first thing I will tell them is that as long as you enter this market, you must do one thing well, which is goal management. You must know very clearly what you are coming to this market. I think everyone’s purpose in the market is very clear, that is, to make money, but this is not enough. The next question is how much money do you want to make? I always ask someone this question. Many people will say that of course the more the better. But if this idea is really limited to this, it will actually cause some minor problems with your own operations. For example, suppose your goal today is to make more money, then I tell you that you will turn 10 U to 10 million U in a week. It sounds great, but obviously if you want to achieve this goal, you shouldn't be in this financial market if you want to increase by 1 million times in a week. I won’t say there is something wrong with this goal. I will respect every goal, but your goal cannot be achieved in the financial market, or the probability is too low. Although it sounds a bit funny, if you really want to achieve this goal, the only way is to buy lottery tickets. You shouldn't buy Bitcoin or Ethereum, you shouldn't go on the chain. Even the local dogs on the chain are unlikely to increase by 1 million times in a week. This is goal management. If you don’t know what the profit you are locking today and which market you want to go to to achieve this goal, then you will want to say in terms of operation that Bitcoin will play if you have the opportunity, and if you have the opportunity on the chain, you will play if you have the opportunity, or if you see some arbitrage or launchpad, you want to play with everything. But you don’t know where your goal is, and instead miss a lot of things you really should focus on. Everyone wants to make money quickly. Usually what I hear around me is like, and I want to quickly turn the principal up.

In fact, there will be a problem, that is, the higher the reward you expect today, the lower the winning rate of your trading strategy is. You will keep failing in this process, and many people will feel that their mentality is damaged. Why is this happening? Am I really that bad? Why can't I win no matter how I do it? But this is a very normal thing, because the profit you are aiming at is very high, so you actually have to bear this low winning rate. This is why many people do not plan their initial goals first, which leads to many setbacks in subsequent implementation. So I think the first framework must be the so-called goal management. There is actually a clear goal here, which is to broaden the broadest trading world. Basically, we will have a basic goal, which is to defeat the market. Suppose you are a US stock trader, then your goal may be to defeat the S&P 500, which is the market, which is what we often call Beta. If you are in the currency circle, you may have to beat Bitcoin's performance. Assume how much Bitcoin has risen in 2024, if your operations do not outperform simply holding Bitcoin, we will say that you might as well hold Beta directly and you can get a good return. This is a broad and popular goal.

For the second framework, I personally think it must be mentality and will not be involved in the technical level. I think the technical level is the last. Because many people are easily affected by their mentality in operations. For example, there is a German stock god named Costolani. He is a person of the same level as Buffett, but the times are different. He said something before, and I think it was very well said. He said that the process of speculation in the market is not 2+2=4, but 2+2=5-1. 5-1 is actually the same as 4, but he emphasized that it is 5-1 instead of 4. What he means is that even if you are very good in the market today and you will see it right every time, this market will not make you so smooth forever in the process of operating and executing you. Suppose you want to go long on Bitcoin today, it may be washed slowly there, and it will not soar when you wash out the market, and then your order may have been washed away.

Even if you see this process correctly, the market can always make you uncomfortable in the process of holding positions. This is the concept of 5-1. So it will first go to 5 and then subtract 1, and then it will become 2+2=4. This thing has a great impact on mentality. According to a psychological concept, human nature is born with disgusting the so-called uncertainty. Everything in the transaction itself is uncertain in this market, because if it is certain in this market, then the person who finds this certainty will become the richest man, and may surpass Elon Musk, so everything is uncertain. Since everything is uncertain, it means that trading itself is very disobedient to human nature. If you want to overcome this process today, it is equivalent to overcoming your inner humanity. Those interested in this part can read the so-called behavioral finance subject, which is taught in any university's business school. The content inside is quite simple, mainly introducing a concept: why people do irrational behavior in the financial market. I personally think that if you cannot overcome some of the impact of emotions today, your decisions will be easily shifted. Even if your trading system is very profitable, it will actually be disturbed and destroyed by your emotions.

For the third trading framework, I think the most important thing is your own trading system. I will put this in the third place, which is how you use to make money. Some people are good at conducting project research, some are very good at technical analysis, and some are very good at doing high-frequency arbitrage. I personally think that no matter whether you are a full-time trader today or not, you should have your own trading logic or your own trading system. Here I can share with you a very interesting example that I have heard before. A reader sent me a private message and told me that he thought that investment is a very professional thing, and professional things should be left to professionals. So his approach is very interesting. He will refer to the big guys and bloggers with many fans on each platform, read all their decisions, and then see whether the final direction is either empty or large, so he will make this decision. He asked me if this is right, and my answer was very simple, that is, I absolutely do not agree with it.

The first is that I can’t know whether every blogger on the table, including me, and anyone with a million fans, is they really powerful. Second, even if he is very powerful, if you don’t know his trading logic and simply follow him, you won’t know whether you are lucky or he is really powerful when you make money. If you lose money, you won't know whether he did a bad job or had bad luck. This will cause a problem, that is, you have no way to review your own operations, you have no way to know that I have made money today and whether I can copy it next time. You also have no way to know what is avoidable next time when you lose money. I think this is a serious problem. Investing itself is a professional thing, but if you want to make a long-term profit in this market today, you must make yourself a professional person, rather than follow a lot of professional people. Because there will be too many noises after following, your head will definitely explode.

The above are the three more important frameworks I think: trading system, mentality and goal management.

Alex: I understand. Let’s discuss target management a little more. I understand whether the target management includes two links. First, I need to know what range I hope for financial returns, and then find a matching investment market after clarifying this. For example, just now you said that an annualized investment master like Buffett is only 20%. Suppose I hope the annualized rate of return is 100%, then at this time, I should not even Buffett can only achieve an annualized 20% US stock market to achieve this return, but should look for investment areas like what you just mentioned, such as Bitcoin, etc. If my mentality is that I hope to have a lower retracement, I hope to have a smaller volatility, but if I make an annualized 10%, it will be OK. At this time, I think that the US stock market may be able to achieve it. I will go to the US stock market to make such investments. Can I understand this way?

Colin: Yes, it means that you must first know clearly where the scope is within your ability. Like the US stock market, the average reward for beta that simply invests in US stock markets has been approximately 10% per year in the past few decades. Buffett is 20%. He beat the US stock market in an average of 60 years, so he is called the stock god. If I am not that good, I will simply buy betas in US stocks, at least in the past few decades, the annualized average is about 10%. But if your goal is 100% today, it is unlikely that you can achieve it by buying US stock beta, so you have to look for other markets. There is another more important concept here, that is, you must be rational in making decisions, and you cannot assume yourself as a trading genius. I need to make 200,000% annualized, which is basically unlikely.

I believe there must be geniuses, but the chances of us betting on being geniuses are too low, which is actually similar to the concept of buying lottery tickets. I personally would prefer to make more rational judgments. For example, if Bitcoin is better, see what the annualized rewards for Bitcoin in the past four years from 2021 to 2024. Suppose we look at the vertex of 69,000 to the current price, the return rate is actually quite bad, because you are from 69,000 to now, which is about 80,000 yuan. If you look at it this way, the annualization will not be good. So in fact, we can look at the time longer. You can compare with Bitcoin. No matter what, you must set a goal rationally. Only after you know what your goal is can you formulate your own strategy and choose your own market. This will make you more directional, rather than wanting to make money from everything. If you want to make anything, you usually won’t make anything. This is some of my own prejudice.

Investment framework sharing

Alex: OK, then, based on the goal setting, mentality management, etc. mentioned just now, can you share your personal overall trading investment framework, what is the current situation?

Colin: Okay, my own part is actually quite simple. My total assets are divided into two parts, one is investment and the other is transaction. If you invest, it is the part of the US stock market mentioned above. The frequency is really low. Operations like escaping the top will only happen once every few years. I don’t know when the next time. In the transaction part, I mainly allocate funds in the Crypto market, focusing on Bitcoin and some other currencies, rather than in the US stock market. On Crypto, I personally cut the funds into two pieces, one is spot and the other is contract. In fact, there is still a small part of the funds that do some fancy operations, but that one is more complicated and not big, so I won’t mention it for now.

The spot part has a relatively large position, and its main trading decision triggers are not high, mainly to buy at the bottom and escape at the top. The decisions in this part are actually quite simple. If you have heard what we talked about in the previous issue, you actually use on-chain data as the main basis and macro market conditions as the auxiliary. If this part has a jump signal, I will make a judgment and decide whether to start buying the bottom in batches or start escaping the top in batches. It is more direct. It's simple to say, but in fact there are more analysis and data in judgment. The second part is the contract. My funds allocate less in the contract, because the contract can increase the application rate of funds through leverage. There are two main parts of the contract. The first part is to operate some small-level band opportunities. I will use simple technical analysis to make orders. Just last week, I shared a real-time operation on Twitter, and I scored K on it, and this part is pure technical analysis.

The second function is just like what I mentioned just now. Technical analysis can help me refine the final entry point. This part is not like a band operation, but rather it is like at the beginning of 2024. At that time, the counterfeit market was actually pretty good. I mentioned just now that I will do some research. At that time, I saw a project called PYTH, which is an oracle. I thought this project was pretty good, so I helped me find the entry position I wanted based on the line chart. Sometimes I saw a project that I found after researching it was really great, but it had already risen to the sky. Suppose I think it will rise, but I don’t want to follow the highs directly, because it may immediately pull back. At this time, I will use the technical analysis framework to help me plan the profit and loss ratio OK point. If not, miss will be dropped. I will not let my funds take too much risk, because this kind of operation that is more biased towards short-term and medium-term. If you force it to the long-term, it will actually cause great harm to the efficiency of the funds application.

If you can improve it to the current stage, this question is actually quite interesting. I am still improving it. As long as I see what I think is useful, logical, and can help me optimize my trading system, I will use it. The most obvious case is Bitcoin at present. In fact, Bitcoin runs very special in every cycle, but this round looks a little different. If today, if I only look at their common grounds like the double tops in 2021, the tops in 2017 and even 2013, I will find their common grounds and apply it to 2025, it will be easy to get into trouble. Bitcoin has accumulated a lot of chips at the bottom in this cycle, and this has never happened. At this time, I have to conduct a multi-party investigation and research on this special phenomenon, and combine it with my own analysis. Otherwise, I will inexplicably say that it has not happened before, and I will panic in this round.

So I think this is a process of optimizing the system. In the process of studying these new phenomena, I will learn something new, or check some other people's opinions or opinions. This is a perfect process. Of course, I didn’t know anything at the beginning, just a piece of blank paper, so at the beginning, I tried to learn everything, not to exclude learning, and not to exclude any school. Because when I first studied, I saw that literati were inferior to each other. School A said that genre B was useless, and School B said that genre C was useless. Try not to refer to these opinions and do not have prejudice. My suggestion is to listen to everything first, and then combine your own thoughts to verify whether these things are effective. Don’t carve a boat and seek a sword, and don’t simply use historical induction to judge the quality of a set of methods. You should use deduction to confirm whether this thing is logical, and then use this method to slowly filter out some concepts that are not very useful in this market, leaving behind some more essential parts.

Commonalities of excellent traders

Alex: Understand. Based on your experience in trading for the past four or five years, including I believe you are also observing the ideas and practices of a large number of other traders. Do you think a good trader is born or can an ordinary person become a good trader through his acquired growth? In your observation, what are the commonalities of excellent traders in terms of their personalities or abilities? What abilities need to be practiced through acquired practice?

Colin: I dare not directly define the quality of certain traders, because I don’t think I have that qualification, and I am still learning myself. As for my personal bias, I don't think anyone is born to be suitable for trading. Because my opinion is that if you are in this market, you should not be in control, as long as you can adapt to this market, you will actually win over most people. Because this market is really unhuman, basically every incident that is prone to happen includes fluctuations and some strange market manipulations. These things are not very visible in real life, or ordinary people will not see them. If you want to adapt to this phenomenon, you have actually won many people.

So I don’t think that some people are born to be good traders, because the market itself is quite evil, and the education in our society is usually peaceful, so there is actually a little conflict. It’s not that the market is just a very evil place, but all kinds of events inside will make people who first entered the market less adaptable. As for the question of whether it is innate or acquired, I personally believe that most abilities can be trained through acquired training. Even if you have some advantages innately, you still have to go through a period of acquired training. For example, I just mentioned mentality in the second part of the trading framework. I have some very special friends around me, saying that they are especially because they are not sensitive to emotions, and they don’t have so-called joys, angers, sorrows, or they hardly show them. I'm not sure if this is born. If so, I think they will gain a good advantage when trading, because if you want to make stable profits in this market today, if you are easily led by emotions, I think it will be less suitable to trade directly in the market. This thing can be trained, but if you come in directly without the training being perfect today, I think it would be quite dangerous.

For the endowment part, I personally think that if you want to make stable profits in the market today, you must at least have a few very important personality traits: the first is modesty, the second is rational, and the third is discipline. The humble part may be different from what ordinary people think. We either want to be humble in our behavior or dealing with things, but we should be very humble in the market, or we should respect the market. If someone told me today that he felt that he had already controlled the market, then I can guarantee you that he would never know what he was doing. Because no one can control the market, the market is always right. It can always take some unexpected trends, or some unexpected events, so there is the so-called black swan. We must be modest about the market. Under this premise, you have to think about every time I make money, do I make money just by being lucky, or do I make money in the hot spots, or is I really good at making money? When you lose money, you have to reflect. You can’t blame the market or the people around you, or you have bad luck today. This is actually not right. You must be modest when losing money, and you should think about whether I can avoid the same mistakes as this time next time.

The second one I think is rationality, and I think this is the most important. The purpose of everyone coming to the market is to make money, so every time we make a decision, we must start to this goal, try to start from an objective and rational perspective, and not trade emotionally. Because once you lose your rationality, you can easily become a certain person, called a gambler, and this market may become your casino, and you are here to vent your emotions. I have heard a quite interesting example before, that is, an amateur trader is an office worker. He opened an order before going to work and lost money, which led to him doing some operations that were different from usual during the whole day of work. For example, he was supposed to be working at Uber, but today he rode his bike to work, thinking about this all day long, and then he went home at night and thought that it would not work. He must place another order today because he lost money in the morning and then issued another order at night. Judging from the second order he issued, his purpose has deviated. He shouldn't have lost money in the morning and wanted to make money back at night. Each transaction you make is independent, and your goal is only one called making money. If you substitute the emotions around you or some other factors to affect yourself, you have already regarded the market as a casino, and you just want to satisfy your unwillingness and satisfy your desire to gambling to vent this emotion. This is actually very unfavorable for us to achieve the purpose of making money.

The third thing is discipline. If you don’t stick to something, even if I give you a very powerful and profitable trading system today, you may mess up because of your own operations and eventually lose money. All three points I just mentioned can be trained. The first is modesty, which is the debugging of your mentality; the second is to maintain rationality; the third is discipline. To put it simply, it can actually be combined into the second point, which is rationality. Because as long as you are rational enough, you will know that the market cannot be controlled and you will remain humble. As long as you are rational enough, you will know that if you do not have discipline, you will definitely face some loss of money in the later stage.

Alex: I understand. Just now, there is a point you mentioned repeatedly, that is, whether it is success or failure in every operation, we must reflect and summarize, extract the things we did well last time in the correct attribution method, and apply them to subsequent operations. So will you write daily transaction reviews, or transaction notes, etc. in daily life? Because I think some people have such habits, I don’t know if a habit like this is a good way? Or how do you think this habit may be more helpful for trading.

Colin: This is quite interesting. In fact, I tried to write down the details of each transaction in the early days. I think this is a very special way of learning, and I believe this method must have some usefulness. I don’t know how to do this now, and I don’t mean I don’t do it at all, but I record some more special parts. For example, if I see certain patterns today or observe certain phenomena, I will record them. Because sometimes I don’t have a good memory, I will write it down and read it the next day, and read it the next day. I go to see what I record every day and then verify it. These things may not be part of my trading decisions, they will be an additional watchlist.

I will observe whether these things will be confirmed by the market in the later stage. If I can, I will study it in depth; if not, this observation is successful, the next observation is successful, and the third failure is failure, I may say that this thing may be just a simple first two luck, but it happened to be successful. So I will record some special situations and will not write them into transaction records, just record some special things. I did the so-called transaction diary in the early days, but I was too lazy to do it later. In fact, internalized to this point, many things are already in the mind and there will be no complicated operations. This kind of trading diary may only be done when developing new strategies or researching new fields, and is no longer done. But I don't deny that this approach is useful because it sounds like it can help some people who are not clear about their direction to record their current ideas and operations. It can be used for review after the event, and I think this function is still available.

Three impressive trading experiences

Alex: OK. So since you officially entered the trading career, can you share three of your most impressive trading experiences and some of the things you have learned from it?

Colin: Many people have asked me about this question. Since I entered the market, every time someone asked this question, the experience I thought of was the same because the picture was so impressive. The first is that I was still working at that time, working part-time to save money. I just mentioned that I would compress my bedtime to learn something. In this process, I will use a very small capital to verify some ideas on the market, train the sense of the plate, try the water temperature, and see if my approach is right. At that time, I basically knew nothing, but I only knew a little basic thing, and it was really a pure leek mentality. At that time, I was very impressed by the principal, which was 2,000U, and I put it in the contract account to play Bitcoin contract. As a result, I tripled the 2000U into 6000U in two weeks. I know that the stock god Buffett's performance in one year is only 20%, and I achieved 200% performance in two weeks. At that time, I was super aloof and my mind was how easy it was to make money. At that time, I heard from people around me that I should remember to give back to myself when I make money, so I bought a black jacket online, which was about 20 U, and wanted to reward myself.

As a result, within two days after I bought it, I lost only 1,700U to only 6,000U, which was less than my principal at the beginning.我只做了一次操作开了一单合约，6000U 就变1700U 了，可以看出我那时连风险控制是什么都不知道。我把那一张单子手动平仓，看着荧幕大概看了5 分钟吧，满脑子都是我现在到底在干嘛，为什么钱没了，整个人都宕机了。比较好笑的是，我订的那件外套都还没寄到我家，我的钱就已经没有了，根本就没有犒赏到自己。那件外套还挂在我的衣柜里面。那一次交易让我学到最重要的一课，就是你每做一笔交易，在下单之前，绝对绝对不要把止损的订单拿掉。

你只要有这个想法那就不要做交易。我当时的状况是我有先设立一张止损单，快要到止损的时候我把止损单撤掉，再往后移一点，结果又快到，我又把它撤掉再往后移一点。我就是不愿意认输，结果它越赔越多。那张单原本可能只要损个大概两三百U 而已，我硬生生损了4300U，非常非常痛，这个数字我真的记得很清楚。所以从那一次开始之后到今天，我完全没有再把止损单拿掉过，因为真的印象太深刻，觉得自己像一个小丑，不知道自己在干嘛。

第二个我想要讲一个比较好一点的，就是以前我有一段时间在研读一个新的领域是技术分析的知识。我那时候一样会拿一些小资金去市场上验证自己的看法到底对不对。有一天我看了两个标的是OP 和DAR，我把自己对于这两个标的的看法画了Trading View 上面的预测的线给我朋友看，跟他说为什么会这样。那个时候的画法是假设跌到A 再涨到B，然后再跌到C。结果后续大概一个礼拜内就验证了。那是我第一次从这个学习里面得到很大的成就感，因为我是学一个新的东西。后续那个价格就是贴着我画的那条线，连时间都对上。那个时间还是随便猜的，但就是完全贴着我画的线在跑，先跌到A 再涨到B 再跌到C，三段完全一模一样。

我就去很开心跟我朋友炫耀说：你看，我学到的东西真的有用。那个时候已经脱离初级交易有一段时间了，心态也比较稳。除了开心以外我就会去思考为什么我可以在事前就预测这个走势。我会去复盘，然后找更多不一样的不管是比特币还是小币，去看他们历史的线图有没有能够复制的东西。在这里还是要强调，预测其实不重要。我们的交易决策其实不应该把预测放到决策的依据里面。预测是预测，决策是决策。你可以预测，但你不可以把预测放到决策。你可以做完决策之后自己预测，对了你可以很开心，错了就算了，你不可以因为预测然后把这个预测的结果参与到你的决策过程里面。这个是大忌，因为市场是不能被预测的。

第三个我想讲的应该是2024 年，是我亏最多的一张单子。其实之前在Twitter 上分享过一点，今天就来把它讲完。2023 年10 月的时候，那时候我已经买了不少比特币。我的判断是牛市差不多要启动了，虽然那个时候市场的情绪还是很低迷。我有一个想法要去做多ETH 对BTC 的汇率，做法是用现货，就是我把手上的比特币现货一部分换成ETH，让他去跑网格，在这个震荡的过程里面刷一些收益出来，然后做长期持有。有点像是取代我单纯持有BTC 的部位。因为持有比特币的话就是吃BETA，但我想要透过以太坊再吃一点alpha。那时候就让网格这样刷，在开单的时候我持仓的ETH 是比较多的，大概是7 比3。如果那时候两个币都上涨，我对牛熊的判断是正确的话，我就可以吃到现货的涨幅。

如果ETH 涨得又比BTC 还多的话，我还可以吃到BTC 的币本位收益。这套策略如果现在回头看的话当然知道结局是什么，但从2023 年的10 月到2024 年的6 月这套策略是赚钱的，震荡的幅度我抓得还算准，它就在一个蛮大的区间里面横盘震荡。那时候又有在炒作以太坊ETF 的通过，我可能有点过度乐观，就没有太注意所谓的极端风险。后来在2024 年的8 月5 号，整个Crypto 跟美股都大暴跌，比特币向下插针到49000，那以太坊就更不用讲了，我记得插针到2100。那一天最特别的事情是以太坊跌幅远远大于比特币，所以那个时候汇率直接暴跌。我账面上的浮亏是很可怕的，因为我的均价其实没有到那么低，即便有网格的收益在帮我拉低均价，所以那个时候其实蛮惨的。我在2023 年年底开仓的时候，汇率的均价大概是0.052，中间我有做一些汇率的波段，再加上网格的收益，最后的均价大概是0.045。从8 月5 号开始就是噩梦，一路到川普当选之前，这个汇率一路跌到0.03。光是汇率部分的亏损就已经大概超过30%，非常非常痛苦。

简单来讲就是我那时候没有要止损的意思，因为我在等另外一波大涨。后来就真的涨上去，川普上任，汇率反弹到大概0.04 左右，我就全部认赔出场。0.045 到0.04 大概亏损了10% 左右，但我仓位很重，所以这一块其实蛮痛的。亏掉的部分除了是比特币的现货以外，其实我后续亏掉的机会成本也蛮大的。因为比特币亏掉，但比特币还会涨，所以后续的机会成本我都没吃到，这是让我在去年的绩效上受伤的一块。

回头去看这笔交易的话，我认为还是学到了一些新东西，就是在这个crypto 的世界里面，真的不能相信任何一个除了比特币以外的资产。我那个时候就是把比特币跟以太坊视作同等级的资产，但现在看来真的完全不是。而且到今天为止好像汇率已经跌破0.018 了。我出厂价格是0.04，现在已经0.018 再腰斩，蛮可怕的。比较值得乐观的就是我的以太坊现货是在去年12 月逃顶，我在价格4000 的时候全部卖掉了。这个算是比较值得苦中作乐的一块。

给当年的自己三个建议

Alex：好的，这三个案例都非常有意思，有做得好的，也有值得反思的，都能够提炼出不同的经验跟教训。假如你可以做一个时光机，回到你开始学习交易、迈入交易市场那一年，你可以给当时的自己三个建议，而且可以基本确保当时的你会好好听进去，你会给当时的自己什么样的建议？但不能是具体的投资建议说要去买哪个。

Colin：好的。第一个建议是我会一定会告诉自己慎选学习资源。我那个时候买了不少书回家，有蛮多没有价值的书。我觉得每一本书可能都有价值吧，但那些书确实不太被市场所接受，包含一些瑕疵跟错误的观念。但我当时不知道，没有去问人，也没有上网查证。读完花时间去验证，才发现这东西好像不太能用，浪费我很多时间。

我相信多数理论都是有价值的，但前提是他们要正确，要能被这个市场所接受。有些东西例如单纯的历史归纳法这种做法，在这个市场上就很容易出事情。这是我想要给当时的自己的第一个建议，不要再去看一些奇奇怪怪的书，好好问一些专业的人，让他们来告诉你什么样的书籍是值得阅读的。以我现在来讲的话，如果有人问，我通常都会说去读教科书，至少要把这个金融市场的整个运作逻辑先理解。所谓的教科书就是在大学的商学院里财经相关的科系上课会用到的书，那些书才是真正比较有价值，最有干货的一些书籍。

第二个建议的话，我可能会告诉自己一定要记得止损，不要把止损单撤掉。原因就是刚刚我分享的第一个交易经历，那时候的那件外套我到现在都还能看到它，每看到一次就想到一次，绝对不要把自己先设定好的止损订单移除，永远都要挂在那里。不管发生什么事情，因为这个东西是可以保命的。如果你今天不愿意去做这件事情，你扛单的话，可能原本只会亏损2%，会变成亏10%，这是一个非常严重的后果。虽然刚刚Alex 有说假设当时的自己听得进去，但我觉得这件事情真的很难让人真的讲一次就听进去。我那个时候也知道要止损，也有设停损订单，但就是做不到，真的太不甘心了。所以我觉得这种事情体验过一次的话，那个印象会深刻很多倍。有一句话我之前听过觉得讲得蛮好，就是人教人教100 遍都不会听得懂，但是事教人可能一次就懂。这件事情在我身上就是一个案例。

第三个建议有一点故事，我想说要记得进入市场的初衷是什么，不要去影响你身边那些最重要的人。在这集节目里我讲了很多次，大家进市场的目的都是赚钱。那我们赚钱的目的是什么？是为了改善自己的生活品质，能够吃好一点的东西，穿好一点，用好一点。既然如此，赚钱本身不是你的最终目的，而是一个手段，是让你自己生活品质更优化的手段。如果在这个过程里，你为了赚钱影响到自己的家人或是另一半，甚至影响到你自己的身心灵，其实就已经脱离你进入这个市场的初衷了。我自己在学习交易的过程中，其实有踩过这个坑。那个时候因为过度专心，有一点太偏激，太想要赶快在这个市场上取得成绩，就冷漠了身边一个比较重要的人，对他发泄一些情绪，后续这段关系就结束了。

我想要讲的是，虽然赔钱或者遭遇到一些不确定性，一些挫折会让你很痛苦，但是不管怎样，还是要记得你进入这个市场是为了改善生活。赚钱是手段，一旦你的手段干扰到最终的目的，我觉得这个做法就需要被停止。我有机会回到当年的话，我会跟自己讲，不要做这种蠢事。你进来就是为了赚钱，但赚钱是为了帮助自己过上更好的生活，在身边的人有困难的时候你可以伸出援手，而不是爱莫能助。这个建议我觉得应该是最重要的。

如何看待当下的美股和BTC 行情

Alex：好的，我们今天最后一个问题就具体一点。上次我们在交流链上数据分析的节目里面也聊过对于市场的看法，你那时候还是看空，我记得那时候比特币的价格还是挺高的，应该是9 万多，后面我们知道比特币最低跌到7 万4，一度很多人认为这波牛市结束，已经进入熊市。现在还在一个牛熊的分界区间，我们不知道现在市场在一个什么样的阶段。对于当下的这个市场，包括BTC，以及最近的美股市场也是波动非常大，你对于美股、BTC 市场的行情，现阶段的看法是怎么样的？最近有哪些比较关键的交易行动？

Colin：先讲美股。美股不敢说简单，但至少在我的体系里面会比较好判断。川普是情绪比较多、动作比较多的总统。他不只是对金融市场，对整个全球的局势都造成了蛮大的动荡。美股最近的波动真的非常夸张。其实这一周已经还好了，虽然昨天是下跌，但是在前两三周那个行情是比较恐怖的。你在美股待几年可能都不见得可以看到这种状况。我个人不会对美股太悲观。

我的看法是这样：关税显然对经济造成一些打击，目前以美联储最棘手的问题就是滞胀，通膨还是很顽固，导致他们不太好降息。这个问题会随着经济逐渐降温，被传导到通胀这一块。通胀一旦被缓解，他们就可以逐步继续开启降息的进程。所以我觉得虽然短期内这个市场的波动可能会非常大，但只要不要有太过极端的一些大风险或者黑天鹅的出现，我对美股后续的长线还是很乐观。美股就是把S&P 的线图打开，开个月线图，周线图，它就一路45 度向上。所以我觉得再大的危机应该都能挺得过去。但短期来看，不管是短期交易还是中期交易，难度都很大。我不是完全专心在美股的交易，所以我也不想讲太多，会有班门弄斧的问题。

比特币的话比较特别。像Alex 刚刚有提到牛熊转换这件事情，我当时在逃顶的时候是分批撤退，我留了最后20% 的仓位。这个20% 的仓位在撤退的时候，是因为它跌破了一个链上数据叫做短期持有者平均成本。那一天的数字是92000，跌破之后它就一路往下跌得很快。这一条线截至两天前的数据大概是92400 左右，还是在那附近。

这一条线我个人会认为是能不能让比特币再出现一波比较大幅度的上涨的关键。虽然它现在从74000、75000 上涨到现在的87000、88000，幅度还是挺大的，但我个人认为，如果今天要让比特币走到更高的位置，那这个短期持有者的平均成本会是一个很重要的分界线。这个原理很简单，因为市场上多数的震荡或者说涨跌，其实有很大一部分的原因都来自于这一些短期持有者的交易。一旦当价格涨到他们的平均成本的时候，就有可能出现所谓的解套，那些套牢的筹码可能就会在这个时候选择卖出，可能就会迎来一波需要担忧的抛压。

第二条线是我之前没有分享过的数据，它叫TMMP（True Market Mean Price），它是之前提过的Coin Time Price 体系里面的另外一个指标。这个数据在这边可能没有办法做详细解释，但可以先简单讲一个它的特性。它的特性就是历史上比特币的价格在这条线之上跟在这条线之下的时间几乎是一比一，所以这条线会是一个比较缓慢但是蛮有效的牛熊分界线。目前这条线的价格大概在67000 左右，我没记错的话。

当初我在做逃顶的分析跟决策的时候，我是不会去参考这条线，因为如果单纯根据这条线去逃的话可能会有点太慢。但现在如果价格持续震荡的话，这条线可能就会是一个很重要的牛熊真正的分界线。因为在这轮牛市上涨到今天以来，这条线都不会被跌破，就是从6 万多以上之后它就一路上去，目前还没有跌到那么低过。剩下一个比较值得注意的是比特币目前的筹码状况。大概在两三个月前，比特币套牢在87000 到11 万这段距离的筹码大概有450 万枚。经过这几个月的消化之后，这其中有很大一部分的筹码已经转移到新的区间了。现在这个区间大概是81000 到85000，大概转移掉一两百万枚的筹码。

乐观来看比特币可以在这个区间里面承接这么多的筹码而没有下跌、没有被砸下去，说明很多资金还是对这个81000 到85000 的区间是有共识的，他们是愿意在这个区间买入的。但同时还是有另外一个需要注意的风险，就是我们刚才提过这些筹码是从上方大概93000 以上的套牢筹码，他们亏损认赔卖出，他们也是一个抛压。那他们卖下来，说明他们的心态上已经没有像之前那么坚定。所以他们一旦加速卖出，市场上的资金已经无力承接这个卖压的话，价格就有可能会出现进一步的下跌。

目前在93000 上方的筹码数量大概有290 几万，根据我前天的周报数据来看的话。这个我觉得是一个比较偏中性的解读。但至少81000 到85000 区间，短期内应该会产生一个比较明显的黏性，价格一旦上涨，它就可能被吸回来；价格一旦下跌，如果没有跌得非常迅速、非常大的话，价格可能还是会慢慢地涨回81000 到85000 的区间。所以目前比特币价格的博弈的中轴可能就是81000 到85000 的这个位置。

当然价格可能会直接跌穿，但是跌穿之后如果没有出现更大的利空的话，可以期待价格慢慢涨上去。同时现在价格大概是88000，这个88000 的位置必须就要承担来自刚刚提到的81000 到85000 这个区间的获利了结的卖压。因为81000 到85000 全部都是来自于短期持有者的承接，其中有多少筹码会变成钻石手，变成长线持有者，我们现在没有办法知道。但这些筹码毕竟当前都是短期持有者，所以一旦价格涨上去，这些人就会想要获利了结。获利了结是卖出，所以他们可能就会把价格再卖回到81000 到85000 的区间。

我个人认为，要跌破到81000 以下，跟涨破到93000 以上，两者来讲我个人还是偏空一点。因为目前如果以周期性的角度来看的话——我指的周期性不是四年周期，就是单纯的比特币的牛熊转换这件事情来看，如果我当初对顶部的判断没有错的话，其实这里很有可能就是一个本轮周期的最大的顶部。但不妨碍它跟2021 年一样跑一个双顶，目前有一点点像，但还没有足够的证据跟数据去支持我的观点。如果我先前对于顶部的判断是正确的话，其实我个人还是更偏空一点，我目前是空仓的状态。可能要等到价格跌到牛熊分界线TMMP 那一段附近，那边刚好有一个筹码堆积区。到那边的话，我可能会开始考虑要不要分批抄底，或是再等更低的位置。

Alex：明白。刚刚你说接下去你去会去接货的一个点，就是牛熊分界线的6 万多的价格段。另外一个你刚刚也讲93000、92000 短期持有筹码的这个均价也是一个很大的阻力。那如果说现在88000 往上再走，比较顺利地突破93000、92000，我理解你也是会顺势右侧去把仓位加高的，对吗？

Colin：有可能，但这部分可能会动用到合约的资金，现货部位可能还是会空。因为看数据的话，我个人判断是那边没有那么好破。上方的套牢筹码太多，再加上刚好又重叠到我们的短期持有者平均成本，所以我个人可能真的要等到突破的时候确认一段时间，例如站在上面一个礼拜，或者说三天、五天，没有明显的颓势的话，最后会结合技术分析的判断再决定要不要透过合约的部位去进场做一个多单的波段。

Alex：好，今天和Colin 的交流真的非常丰富，不仅聊到了他作为一位交易员的成长历程，也深入探讨了他在交易过程中的一些核心认知和实战经验，包括他对市场的框架性理解，以及在不同市场环境下的操作逻辑。无论是美股的情绪波动，还是比特币筹码结构的变化，相信大家都能够从中获得不少启发。非常感谢Colin 今天再次作客，为我们带来这么多深度的思考和精彩的内容。希望未来还能有机会再次邀请你来节目，一起继续聊聊市场、聊聊策略。 grateful.

Colin：客气了，感谢。