Can Bitcoin return to $100,000? Is there still a copycat season?

Author: Mu Mu

In recent times, the crypto market has faced severe pullback pressure, but many early Bitcoin participants (OGs) still believe that the current bull market has not yet fully launched. Their reason is that although Bitcoin reached more than US$100,000 in early 2025, its performance is not as crazy as the previous bull markets. Of course, predicting the future is very difficult, but there are four key points in 2025, which may be the main factors that determine whether Bitcoin can reach more than US$100,000 again and start a full bull market...

Strategic Bitcoin Reserves

There is growing discussion about the government seeing Bitcoin as a strategic asset. In 2024, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis and Trump both proposed to establish a national digital asset reserve. In addition, El Salvador has used its Bitcoin reserves as a national asset, and other countries such as Germany and Japan are also discussing similar policies. But ideals are full, reality is skinny. The United States will face many obstacles regardless of the federal strategic Bitcoin reserves promoted by Trump or the strategic reserves proposed by lawmakers in various state governments. Even Trump's Republican Party has many differences, let alone the Democratic Party. Recently, Trump has once again re-promoted his strategic reserves on social networks, and the upcoming crypto summit on March 7, slightly boosted market confidence and at least showed his firm position. Judging from the current situation, if Trump insists, there is a possibility of implementation. Even if Congress does not pass legislation, it can be achieved through executive orders to bypass resistance and launch a mini version of strategic Bitcoin reserves first. Of course, once the US strategic reserves are confirmed, no matter how big or small, it will be a milestone event. Countries and regions around the world will carefully consider whether to follow up on this matter.

Rate cuts and monetary easing

Sufficient liquidity is the prerequisite for a bull market, and there is still room for this year's "rate cut". As of March 2025, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, and markets expected a rate cut later in 2025. Economists predict that if economic data is weak, the Fed may cut interest rates in May or July. Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China in February 2025, triggering a trade war that could bring huge pressure to the recession. At the same time, this may force the Fed to further cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Research shows that Bitcoin price is highly correlated with the growth of global M2 money supply, with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. Historical trends show that M2 growth often drives Bitcoin prices to rise, especially when liquidity increases and interest rates fall. "The weakness of the dollar has a net positive impact on global M2, and it's only a matter of time before Bitcoin achieves this goal," cryptocurrency analyst Bitcoindata21 said in a February 25 X post. Similar views also appeared in Colin Talks Crypto's X post, saying: "The global M2 money supply predicts that Bitcoin will usher in major changes."

Regulatory Framework and Stablecoin Act

At the beginning of 2025, the market value of stablecoins exceeded US$200 billion, which has attracted global regulatory attention. The EU has implemented MiCA regulations in January 2025, and the U.S. Congress is considering related stablecoins bills such as the Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act and Lummis-Gillibrand Payment Stablecoins Act. In the past two months, more and more crypto project parties and crypto trading platforms have announced that their previous lawsuits with the SEC have been revoked, and it is likely to bring a friendly regulatory framework under a friendly regulatory environment. The crypto regulatory framework and the stablecoin bill will bring more regulatory clarity and certainty, providing conditions for traditional financial institutions that are already "coareful" to enter the crypto market and compete directly with stablecoin issuers such as Tether, which have made a fortune, and bringing more capital and liquidity.

Ethereum is the key to a bull market for altcoin

Paradigm wrote an article in late January to call on Ethereum core developers to speed up protocol upgrades and achieve more milestones on its technology roadmap to maintain its leading position as the leading Layer1 blockchain. The Ethereum ecosystem is the most influential in the field of crypto, especially the promotion of Web3 application. In short, "there are many people and projects that really do things", and this is the source of unlimited expectations for people.

So many times, together with Ethereum, most of the DeFi and other related ecology have collectively increased, and the competitive public chain has also achieved a high effect. Therefore, Ethereum is very important for a comprehensive bull market. Ethereum seems to have made some moves, and there will be some changes in 2025: 1) Changes in the Ethereum Foundation At present, we have seen that the Ethereum Foundation is increasing its investment in DeFi and making personnel adjustments aimed at maintaining its position as the leading Layer1 blockchain. Of course, transformation is a good thing, but the crypto ecosystem cannot fully count on the Ethereum Foundation. Ethereum is not a company, the foundation is just an auxiliary organization. At most it can only assist the ecological growth and cannot control this decentralized ecosystem. 2) Upgrade speedup Recently, some developers in the Ethereum community said in several related Ethereum developer meetings and other occasions that they will speed up protocol upgrades and other matters. Ethereum's main upgrade in 2025, Pectra will be launched on the main network in April. This upgrade may be the largest upgrade in history, including up to 20 Ethereum improvement proposals (EIP), such as EIP-3074 to improve transaction efficiency and EIP-7002 to optimize verification node operations. The next upgrade to Fusaka will be confirmed on April 10. Every time Ethereum is greatly upgraded, it will bring good expectations before and after its implementation. What will happen this time? Previously, some analysts believed that Ethereum's current risk-return rate is relatively high, and it is stagflation compared with some leading projects. Once new progress or changes are made, it is likely to reverse the decline.

summary

The potential benefits this year are still there, and the possibility that Bitcoin will hit 10w+ again this year is still not low, but variables cannot be ignored. It can only be said that the probability of strategic reserves being implemented is higher, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is still difficult to say. There is no big problem with the regulatory framework and related bills, and Ethereum's transformation and upgrading will also bring good news. Overall, it is worth looking forward to.