Binance Alpha Points Intensify, but the truth is not really good

Author: Frank, PANews

Binance Alpha's points game is pushing "involved" to the extreme at an unprecedented speed. When the points threshold once exceeded the 200-point mark, and the airdrop income plummeted to around $25, the decline in user input-output ratio sparked widespread community discussion.

Under this seemingly winner-takes-all feast, one view believes that its huge traffic is "overflowing" to other ecology such as Sui and Solana, injecting vitality into it. However, what is the real situation of this spillover? What kind of profound impact will this "hair-pumping" carnival ignited by Binance Alpha eventually have on the industry?

The virtual and real of traffic "spillover": Sui's observation on the

alpha effect

The Binance Alpha Points game mechanism has been introduced in detail in the previous article and will not be discussed here. But overall, with more and more users participating, the final result is that there is a clear upper limit on the income of each airdrop, and the threshold for points is getting higher and higher. In this case, users have to further compress costs in order to retain profit margins.

Recently, Binance Alpha has begun to launch Sui ecological tokens. And then announced several Alpha projects of Sui Eco. The addition of Sui ecosystem just provides users with new cost troughs for trading volume. On May 14, @lianyanshe and many other KOLs proposed that Sui Eco's NAVX and other projects have lower gas fees when switching transaction volumes, and will not be attacked by clip robots, and the overall wear is lower. Therefore, several projects of Sui Eco will become the "new scroll king" of Binance Alpha volume.

If most users choose this form, it can indeed bring a lot of transaction volume and token popularity to the Sui ecosystem. However, there seems to be no similar effect in reality. According to PANews' survey, the transaction volume of Sui Eco tokens in Alpha is not large. The highest NAVX transaction volume in 24 hours was only US$3.34 million, and the remaining transaction volumes of HIPPO, BLUE, SCA, etc. are even between hundreds of thousands and tens of thousands of dollars. In contrast, the transaction volume of several projects on Solana chain is basically above US$10 million, while the transaction volume of several top projects on BSC is up to US$200 million. However, for NAVX, the launch of Binance Alpha has indeed increased its trading volume. On May 13, the trading volume of the NAVX main pool reached $1.6 million, while the trading volume of the previous day was only a few thousand dollars.

In the actual transaction process, it can be found that in the official cross-chain bridge of Binance Wallet, the exchange of Sui ecosystem and BSC on-chain assets has not been opened. Users cannot directly exchange assets such as BNB to USDC on Sui. If they want to save this wear, they will have to withstand the wear of other cross-chain bridges.

Solana Head MEME unexpectedly receives inflow of funds

Solana is one of the ecosystems with the most online projects on Binance Alpha except BSC. Starting from May, Solana's overall DEX trading volume has indeed increased significantly. On May 4, Solana DEX trading volume was $2.2 billion, and by May 15, the figure rose to $4.59 billion, more than doubled. Several head tokens such as MOODENG and jellyjelly, which launched Binance Alpha, have indeed seen a huge increase in trading volume in recent times, and have also seen a significant increase. Among them, MOODENG's price rose by 140% from its launch to May 14. The average increase of the six tokens that Solana Eco launched Binance Alpha in May also reached 12.32%, which is one of the few positive performance ecosystems among several public chains.

In addition to the Sui and Solana ecosystems, the Sonic ecosystem may have benefited the most significantly in the recent spillover effect. As Fantom's new brand, what Sonic needs most now is the exposure of breaking the circle and the inflow of funds. Although only 3 Sonic ecological projects have been launched on Binance Alpha, in terms of price trends, the average increase of the two tokens launched in May reached 65.93% (data as of May 14), ranking the highest among all ecology. However, because the number of tokens on the line is small, it does not mean that the tokens of the Sonic ecosystem have higher potential.

However, on May 1, when Binance Alpha announced the launch of two projects of Sonic Eco, the DEX trading volume of Sonic Eco did see a significant increase. From more than $73.4 million the day before, it soared to $194 million.

Project myth, is it peak or value discovery when it comes online?

In addition to the ecological perspective, for the project parties, can the price soar after launching Binance Alpha? From a data perspective, the average increase or decrease of 23 tokens launched in May was -5.04%. Among them, the largest decline reached 75%. Although on the chart, the prices of these projects have experienced a pull-up in the short period of time when they were launched on Binance Alpha, there will basically be obvious retracement and decline after the popularity has passed. From this point of view, the launch of Binance Alpha does not mean the birth of Golden Dog, it only has an additional trading port.

In addition, for projects that start and have airdrop activities, it seems that they have not gained favor from the market. The average decline of the seven airdrop activity tokens launched in May reached 31.5%, and as of May 14, all were in a downward state. From this point of view, for the project, airdrop and volume brushing activities cannot drive the price trend to rise.

Overall, the average market value of projects launched by Binance Alpha has reached US$70 million, the lowest market value token is approximately US$1.6 million, and the highest MOODENG has reached US$271 million. Among them, the average market value of several newly launched tokens in Solana Ecosystem exceeds US$100 million, which obviously has higher requirements for the Solana Ecosystem.

Inverse end game: professional players' arena and ordinary users'

departure

For ecology and projects, Binance Alpha means exposure and traffic gathering places. For users, the current intravenous users are eliminating ordinary users and becoming a competition for professional studios and big players. As the points threshold reaches 205 points, it means that users need to complete at least 15 points per day to catch up with the threshold. Based on the principal of US$1,000 (2 points), the daily trading volume needs to be converted to US$8,000 to complete the points accumulation. The daily slippage

• Gas fee for this volume may reach more than $10. If you fail to meet the next threshold or get less airdrops, you will face a loss of money and energy. The airdrop results of the latest RDAC tokens are basically sold at only US$25, which is difficult to cover the cost of 205 points.

It can be foreseeable that the threshold for points will continue to rise in the future, and according to current rules, the higher the points required every day, the more exponentially the transaction volume required. Either Binance Alpha increases the amount of airdrops for a single address, or a large number of users exit the intra-volume, allowing the points threshold to fall to a reasonable range. But anyway, this inclined game seems to be almost at the end. DEX trading volume on the BSC chain has also begun to decline in recent days, with $2.64 billion on May 15, down 16.4% from $3.16 billion on May 12.

Overall, Binance Alpha's "traffic spillover" effect has significant differences in the manifestation between different ecology. The Sui ecosystem has not undertaken a large amount of volume brushing as expected. Instead, the Solana ecosystem has shown stronger positive interaction and growth. For the project parties, the short-term highlights brought by Alpha are often difficult to convert into continuous value support. Price falls after the peak is launched and airdrop activities have not become the savior of prices. Each project party providing airdrop has become the "buyer" for Binance to promote wallet products.

The more core problem is that this point-driven carnival is ruthlessly squeezing ordinary users out of the poker table. The rising points threshold and exponentially growing trading volume demand, coupled with shrinking airdrop returns, have gradually evolved into a "zero-sum game" between professional studios and big players. The recent decline in on-chain DEX trading volume of BSC seems to indicate that this model that relies on high-intensity "involvement" is approaching the critical point of its sustainability.