Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin price will reach $1 million in 2028

Source: Coindesk; Translated by: AIMan@Golden Finance

Key points:

• Arthur Hayes believes that the key institution that affects global liquidity and the future of Bitcoin is the Treasury Department, not the Federal Reserve.

• Hayes predicts that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028 due to increased liquidity and geopolitical factors.

• He believes that the Sino-US trade agreement will play an important role and achieve a real economic transformation through capital controls and foreign investment taxes.

As China and the United States gradually reach a trade deal, Arthur Hayes has sent a message to cryptocurrency investors and BTC HODLers who are obsessed with Fed policies: The institutions you are following are wrong.

"The real big show is in the Treasury Department. Don't mind the Fed. It doesn't matter," Hayes said in a recent interview with CoinDesk. “Powell was not important during the Democratic Party’s administration in 2022, and he was not important now during the Republican Party’s administration.”

For Hayes, the Fed has become a supporting role. He believes that real monetary leverage takes place under the leadership of Treasury Secretary Scott Becent, who is quietly reshaping global liquidity to manage the inflatable U.S. debt burden through repurchase and auction strategies.

Such a lot of liquidity, coupled with the inability of the U.S. to control spending, is why Hayes says Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028.

"We care about whether there are more dollars in the system today than yesterday. That's the most important thing," Hayes said.

But in his opinion, monetary policy is not the only catalyst. Hayes believes that geopolitical factors have also played a role in fueling the fire, especially the pretentious trade diplomacy between the United States and China. Hayes said that with both sides posing, they are likely to sign a deal that looks bold on paper but is essentially unchanged.

“On the surface, it would be a deal,” he said. "Trump needs to prove that he has always been tough on China. China needs to prove that he dares to fight against white people."

After all, China has proved that it can withstand greater economic pain with policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the political risks of tariffs, Hayes believes the next step will be to tax foreign investment, a low-key way of capital controls designed to reduce the U.S. reliance on foreign buyers without scaring domestic voters. This is how the American people accept trade adjustments.

“The only policy that is really effective is capital control,” he said.

There are many potential measures. Not only taxes on foreign-held U.S. Treasuries or stocks, but more radical measures, such as mandatory Treasury swaps, converting 10-year Treasury bonds into 100-year Treasury bonds, or levied higher withholding taxes on capital gains in U.S. assets.

All this is part of a strategy to rebalance financial accounts, but it won't force Americans to "buy less," he said, "No politician can convey such a message.

“Americans don’t like to do difficult things,” he added. “They don’t want to be told that they have to reduce consumption.”

China will continue to increase its holdings of U.S. assets

At the same time, China will not go anywhere. Hayes said that even if China pretends not to go, there is no choice but to continue buying U.S. assets.

“They have to cover up how much they bought from the United States…but mathematically, they just can’t stop.”

For Hayes, it all points to a goal: more money flows through the system, and Bitcoin absorbs these spillovers.

His portfolio embodies this view: 60% to 65% are invested in Bitcoin, 20% are invested in ETH, and the rest are invested in what he calls “quality junk coins.”

Why? Because the market has finally begun to look for currencies that can really work.

"We are in the fundamental season. People are tired of tokens that don't have any effect," Hayes said.