Alliance DAO review of 2024 and market forecast for 2025: minimum 150K, maximum 420K US Bitcoin reserves are the key

Original compilation: Wu Shuo Blockchain

In this episode of "Good Game Podcast", Imran and Qiao review the development trends and projects of the encryption market in 2024 through previous podcasts, from market cycles to emerging application areas, to the impact of global policy changes on cryptocurrency. They reviewed the key events in the market in the first half of the year, such as the development bottleneck of Eigenlayer , the market dynamics of NFT and memecoin, and the breakthrough use cases of AI in OnlyFans and social applications. In addition, they analyze the price movements of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana and the potential impact of ETF applications on the market, discuss how market-driven decision-making models shape the future, and make their own predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025.

A review of the biggest crypto trends of 2024

WIF Price Performance and Meme Coin Investment

Imran: When WIF was released on January 24, 2024, the price was 3 to 4 cents. It has increased 10 times so far, which is quite good. We talked about this currency on the show at that time.

Qiao: We bought at 3 cents and discussed at 30 cents. At that time, the market paid a lot of attention to popular meme coins, but now the market is much more complex than it was in January, and attention is being diluted. Major coins rotate every two weeks and the token supply is huge, making the choice difficult.

Imran: I think you need to pay special attention to liquidity issues when investing in meme coins. The on-chain trading environment is too fast and complex, and is suitable for short-term entertainment investment. However, if you want to invest wealth in the long term, I recommend choosing currencies listed on exchanges. Holding an illiquid token may make it completely impossible to exit the market.

The intersection of AI and cryptocurrency

Imran: The development of AI has attracted a lot of capital in recent months. Cryptocurrencies used to be the focus on Twitter, but now a lot of that attention has been taken away by AI. In particular, some AI-related currencies have experienced very large increases. This is not just a meme, but the market is gradually recognizing its practicality.

Qiao: In his recent speech, Trump ranked AI and cryptocurrency as the two most important technologies, which is a surprising shift. He seems to view the two as complementary.

Imran: Yes, this statement proves the value of cryptocurrencies to some extent. The crypto industry has often been ignored by regulators and mainstream media in the past, but the combination of AI and cryptocurrency is redefining market concerns and clearing obstacles for industry development.

Stablecoin Growth and Market Validation

Imran: We discussed the potential of stablecoins in the first episode. Now, the market validation of stablecoins is very clear. Bridge's acquisition by Stripe is a landmark event. Data shows that the number of crypto users using stablecoins has reached 25% to 30%.

Qiao: The value locked (TVL) and transaction volume of stablecoins are now comparable to those of PayPal and Visa. Judging from on-chain data, the use of stablecoins has become very popular around the world. This is one of the reasons why we invested in this area last year.

Imran: Stablecoins attract a lot of entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley. In the past, this space was dominated by crypto-native users and entrepreneurs in emerging markets, but now more traditional fintech companies are beginning to focus on the functionality of stablecoins as an integral part of their products to increase liquidity and support more assets. trade.

Tokenization of real assets

Qiao: The tokenization of real assets has not lived up to expectations. While companies like BlackRock have attempted to tokenize Treasury funds, crypto natives have not shown enough interest. We expected these users to diversify away from highly volatile cryptocurrencies and into more stable assets, but this trend has not occurred this year.

Imran: Regulatory issues are a major hindrance, especially regulatory restrictions on securities. Another problem is that the product experience for end users is not good enough. For example, the way to invest in real estate tokenization projects is not clear enough.

Imran: Some startups are trying new models, such as Lofty, which tokenizes real estate income and allows retail investors to share rental income through tokens. Such projects show market potential, but currently the greater speculative growth is still concentrated in the fields of meme coins and AI tokens.

Qiao: Maybe we need to wait another two to three years, and regulatory issues and changes in user behavior may gradually promote the development of this field.

The Current Situation of Ethereum and the Rise of Layer 2

Imran: Ethereum is still in a "transition period" and we need more time to see how it solves the problems of expansion and profitability. As for Layer 2, Base is the most prominent project this year because Coinbase, as its supporter, has strong distribution capabilities.

Qiao: I agree that Base’s rise is inseparable from its brand influence and distribution capabilities. Two years ago, many application developers chose to develop on Polygon, but now they have almost all turned to Layer 2 of Ethereum, among which Base is the most popular.

Imran: This is a phenomenon worthy of attention. People like Jesse actively promote the development of Base and even travel around the world to promote its ecology. I think this founder's spirit is a key factor in Base's success.

The development of NFTs and SocialFi

Qiao: Pudgy Penguins is the best-performing NFT project this year, even surpassing Bored Apes and becoming the only large-scale NFT series to achieve an increase relative to ETH.

Imran: SocialFi is a topic we focus on in the first episode. Pump is expected to hit $1 billion in revenue in less than a year, demonstrating the huge potential of SocialFi. This was one of the key trends we focused on at the beginning of the year.

The future of application chains and competition with monolithic chains

Imran: The potential of application chains has not yet been fully unleashed. At present, the threshold for creating an application chain is still high, and the number of users and transactions is not enough to support large-scale development. However, we have seen some examples, such as Ronin's move to Polygon's CDK.

Qiao: The application chain targets more global users on the service chain, rather than those who already have traditional financial service channels. For example, Moonshot is trying to provide more convenient financial services to users on the chain through its platform.

Predictions about ETFs

Imran: We predicted on the show that ETFs would be approved, and it actually happened. This marks an important recognition of cryptocurrency’s place in mainstream finance.

Qiao: This reflects the fact that traditional giants like BlackRock and Fidelity are beginning to fully embrace cryptocurrencies. If someone had told me 10 years ago that these companies would promote Bitcoin on their homepage, I would have thought it was impossible, but now it has become a reality.

February wrap-up: Five trends driving the bull market

ETFs and market concerns

Imran: We talked about ETFs and also mentioned that Gary Gensler was hacked. Although this incident is an episode, it highlights the problems in the current regulatory environment.

Qiao: We also mentioned that Phantom once surpassed Coinbase's ranking on the App Store. This is an interesting phenomenon, showing that even a niche wallet application can attract users' attention in a short period of time.

Imran: This phenomenon, although short-lived, reflects the potential of decentralized wallets. I think Phantom needs to further improve user stickiness to benefit from these short-term fluctuations.

The Rise of Hyperliquid

Imran: Hyperliquid is a project we mentioned on March 5th. At that time, they launched their own application chain based on the Tendermint consensus. Within 8 months, their trading volume approached $1 billion and TVL reached $300-400. This growth rate is astonishing.

Imran: I also talked with the Hyperliquid team. They realized that the Tendermint consensus mechanism was a bottleneck and were redesigning a faster consensus mechanism. Their goal is to provide users with the fastest and optimal trading experience.

Qiao: Yes, they have further optimized their ecosystem by launching a fully customized Layer 1 chain. This customization shows that they pay close attention to the needs of the market segment.

Imran: I think there may be more and more customized chains like this in the future. Layer 2 and public chains like Arbitrum, Polygon, and Solana may be diverted by smaller application chains under this trend.

Qiao: But this also shows that the market demand for high-performance chains continues to grow, and Hyperliquid may become an example in this field.

Imran: I kind of regret not participating in the early farming of Hyperliquid. When they launched, I wasn't a leveraged trader and didn't follow derivatives, so I missed a lot of opportunities. But now that I see their growth, I want to be involved in their future products.

Farcaster’s user behavior and ecological development

Imran: We talked about Farcaster's daily active users (DAU), which has dropped from a peak of 100,000 to 40,000 now. This is a significant decline and may be related to a lack of platform innovation.

Qiao: Yes, they recently launched the Snapchain framework, which is a tool that allows users to easily develop Farcaster-based applications, like a small decentralized application store. I feel like they are trying to attract developers and users with this framework.

Imran: I noticed that Farcaster's UI has also had some updates. Now you can click on the lower right corner to enter Explorer to view applications and launch them directly. This kind of innovation makes me think that they are really trying to expand the capabilities of the social graph.

Qiao: In the long term, I think Farcaster's opportunity lies in developing new features that Twitter can't achieve. For example, innovative applications that combine financialization and social graphs may be one direction.

Imran: Yes, this approach not only helps the app spread quickly, but also attracts more users. This is the biggest highlight of our conversation about Farcaster.

The explosion of meme coins and the potential of SocialFi

Imran: We talked about the explosion of meme coins on March 14th, specifically mentioning TRUMP and HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu. I tried to buy at the time, but the price was too volatile and the cross-chain transactions made me hesitate.

Qiao: The price of HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu has experienced a surge, but overall, it is still a high-risk project. Meme coins tend to have short life cycles and rely more on the short-term enthusiasm of the community.

Imran: I remember that HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu was close to zero, but then it rose again because of a new listing news. I personally feel that this currency can only be used as a speculative tool.

The intersection of culture and crypto

Imran: We've noticed that crypto culture is starting to spread through platforms like TikTok. For example, crypto-related merchandise has appeared on TikTok, one example being the “Chill Guy” sweater.

Qiao: I almost bought a "Chill Guy" sweater, but gave up because I thought the item might go out of style quickly. I would rather invest my money in cryptocurrencies.

Imran: I agree that while these commodities reflect the spread of crypto culture, their value is more symbolic. This shows that crypto culture is trying to enter the wider consumer field.

Bitcoin Puppets Performance

Imran: Bitcoin Puppets is a Bitcoin ecological project we discussed. The price was around 50K when we bought it, and it has now risen to 100K. This performance truly exceeded expectations.

Qiao: Nodes and Puppets are the two best performing projects. They attract a lot of attention and funding, especially to innovative projects in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Crypto sets cultural trends

Imran: We have observed that crypto culture is gradually entering mainstream social platforms, such as TikTok. This phenomenon shows that the influence of the crypto industry is growing.

Qiao: I think this kind of cultural communication will attract more users into the encryption ecosystem, especially the younger generation. This provides new impetus for the continuation of the bull market.

March Wrap-Up: Meme Coin, BlackRock, and L3

The launch of Blast and Solana’s retail positioning

Imran: On March 14, 2024 we talked about the release of Blast. We also mentioned that Solana is positioned as a "Degen chain" for retail users. This is an accurate description.

Imran: Solana’s Layer 2 project FireDancer and the market prospects of institutions such as CMS and Split Capital are also in our discussion. These indicate that Solana is trying to expand its user base, especially to attract retail investors.

ETFs, meme coins and the impact of BlackRock

Imran: We talked about ETF approval and reviewed the market situation 8 months ago, including the explosion of meme coins, BlackRock’s impact on the market, and the development trend of Layer 3.

Qiao: I remember we mentioned expectations for ETF approval. At the time, both Daniel and Zaheer were bullish on the approval of ETFs, especially the ETH ETF.

Imran: Yes, this bullish sentiment is driving the market. The boom of meme coins at the time also exacerbated this trend, but the volatility of meme coins made it difficult for many investors to hold them for the long term.

The role and market segmentation of Layer 3

Imran: We discussed the role of Layer 1 and market fragmentation issues, specifically in the debate between Ethereum and Solana geeks, involving Degen Token on Farcaster. When I heard the term Layer 3 for the first time, I found this concept difficult to accept.

Qiao: Yes, the development of Layer 3 is mainly focused on more refined application scenarios, but so far, we have not seen a particularly convincing success case.

Development Challenges of Bitcoin Layer 2

Imran: We mentioned the development of Bitcoin Layer 2, but it currently faces problems of slow speed and poor user experience (UI/UX), especially the use of PRC 20 tokens, which hinders the entry of many users.

Qiao: Yes, I hope to see some major breakthroughs in Bitcoin Layer 2 in the second half of the year. Currently, well-funded projects are underway and may not bear fruit until next year.

Imran: At the same time, Base and Solana are competing for AI-related meta. Base has a slight advantage, especially driven by the Virtual framework, which provides a simple and user-friendly way to start the agent.

Qiao: Although Solana's Eliza framework has a lot of community support, it does not have as clean a product experience as Virtual. I think Base is one step ahead with the proxy framework.

AI applications and competition

Imran: Competition in the AI ​​field is fierce. We chatted that Goat has recently released a new announcement and regained some attention. In addition, ai16z became the number one library on Github, attracting the attention of a large number of developers.

Qiao: Yes, Zerebro plans to launch ZerePy to compete with Eliza. Goat's new project, Backdoors 2.0, allows AI agents to talk to humans and generate more sophisticated models based on context.

Bitcoin Halving and Bull Market Discussion

Imran: We talked about the Bitcoin halving event and the market drop. Although the market is in a consolidation period, from my perspective, this is more like a normal consolidation.

Qiao: Even though the price of Bitcoin remains at 65K two months ago, there are a lot of complaints on Twitter. This could be due to geopolitical issues, such as tensions between Iran and Israel, causing heavy selling in the market.

Telegram’s TON project

Imran: We mentioned the TON project. The project has been largely in limbo since its founder was arrested. Although distribution capabilities have potential, its developer experience is poor, supported languages ​​are limited, transaction fees are high, and block times are long.

Qiao: Yes, we partially invested in the TON ecosystem, but in the end most of the projects were transformed. I believe that technological differentiation is no longer the key, distribution is the core of the success of Layer 1 and Layer 2.

Imran: This is why Base is successful. It relied on Coinbase's distribution channel to dominate the market, not because of the uniqueness of the technology. Base's technology is basically the same as other OP Stack Layer 2, but its distribution capabilities make it stand out.

The evolution of the crypto space

Imran: We see Base and Solana continuing to compete for market share in AI and memes. Although Bitcoin Layer 2 has potential, the user experience still needs to be significantly improved.

Qiao: Our discussion showed that distribution capabilities are becoming the core competitiveness in the encryption field, especially in the competition between Layer 1 and Layer 2. This trend is likely to shape the market landscape in the coming years.

April wrap-up: Eigenlayer, SocialFi summer and capital outflows

Current status and challenges of Eigenlayer

Imran: We discussed Eigenlayer and no team is willing to use it for financial security yet. For startups, economic security is less of a priority than how to quickly launch products and acquire users.

Qiao: Totally agree. Ultimately, startups care about product implementation and user growth, not whether the underlying infrastructure is optimal.

Market cycles and bull market phases

Imran: In May, we thought the market was almost at the 50% stage. Now, the progress is about 80%-90%, and there may be 3 to 6 months left.

Qiao: Yes, but in the last 10%-20% of the time, price fluctuations may be more dramatic. Extra care is required at this stage.

Imran: My current strategy is to keep the portfolio intact. I have been holding the asset for 3 months, especially after the AI ​​meta caught on, I chose not to trade frequently. Otherwise, it is likely to be cut due to market fluctuations.

High FDV Projects and New Releases

Imran: We talked about high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) projects such as Hyperliquid and Movement. Hyperliquid's FDV reached US$12 billion to US$13 billion, while Movement's FDV once reached US$10 billion.

Qiao: Hyperliquid’s community shows strong user traction, similar to the early state of Ethereum OG investors. This "organic user effect" gives Hyperliquid a special position in the Layer 1 market.

Imran: Movement is more of a “farm” strategy to attract users, with many investors hyping it up on Twitter, but it lacks the organic growth of Hyperliquid that is truly driven by traders.

Qiao: I think Hyperliquid's positioning is clearer. It quickly adapts to the market by providing high-quality products for Degen (high-risk traders). Movement and Aptos rely more on BD (business development) cooperation, such as AI strategy with OpenAI product officers.

Summer of SocialFi and Consumer Behavior

Imran: The SocialFi space is starting to show signs of activity, but it’s still early days. The explosion of celebrity tokens may take 1-2 market cycles, and consumer behavior is not yet fully ready.

Qiao: Yes, celebrity tokens may go through a similar journey as meme coins. Meme coins, which were widely mocked late last year, are now being embraced by the mainstream. Consumer behavior and market consensus take time to change.

Imran: We are currently incubating a startup called Cloud, which aims to provide tools for celebrities to launch their own tokens. This model may see greater adoption in the next cycle.

Bitcoin market observations

Imran: We also talked about the integration of the Bitcoin market. Although the price is stuck at 65K, the market is going through a consolidation period. I think this is more of a consolidation phase than the end of a bull market.

Qiao: Yes, the negative sentiment in the market may be more affected by geopolitical issues, such as the situation in Iran and Israel, which led to short-term market sell-offs.

The Dilemma of the TON Project

Imran: The TON project has been in trouble since its founder was arrested. Its developer experience is poor, it supports only a few programming languages, and its high transaction fees and long settlement times have hindered its development.

Qiao: Distribution capability is still the potential of TON, but it needs to improve the developer experience and optimize technical implementation to regain market attention.

Market Timing and Opportunities

Imran: Many phenomena in the current market, such as SocialFi and celebrity tokens, are a matter of timing. Although the market is not quite ready yet, we can see that consumer behavior is gradually changing.

Qiao: We need to continue to pay attention to the market rhythm, especially on celebrity tokens and high FDV projects. These may be key growth points in the next market cycle.

Mid-year review and forecast for the second half of the year

Market Review and Bull Market Progress

Imran: By June, we were in the middle of the market. Although there was a lot of good news, such as Andrew King's analysis of ETFs, and some positive macro signals, the market did not rise significantly. There is also disagreement over the likelihood of a rate cut, with some seeing it as bearish in the short term.

Qiao: In the short term, a rate cut may be bullish, but the medium-term effect may be different. We once called some of the speculation “armchair economist” analysis, and it turned out that their predictions of market rhythms and reactions were inaccurate.

AI Application and OnlyFans Mode

Imran: In June, we explored the trend of creators using AI chatbots on OnlyFans. These bots can handle a large number of message interactions on behalf of real people, becoming one of the main sources of income for creators.

Qiao: Yes, OnlyFans’ main source of revenue is not subscriptions, but one-to-one message interaction. Each message may cost 10 cents or more, and users may also pay to unlock photos or content. AI is playing an increasingly important role, allowing creators to focus on other aspects of their work.

Imran: We were discussing the global trend of loneliness and how it relates to the need for AI companionship. AI is becoming a tool for mental health and social interaction, especially among young people.

Market dynamics of NFT and meme coins

Imran: CBB decided not to provide liquidity to the market, which had a certain impact on the NFT market. At the same time, meme coins still occupy a lot of market attention.

Qiao: Whether NFT will return to the mainstream market is still unknown. But looking at past trends, meme coins have proven themselves capable of becoming the main focus in certain cycles.

Limitations of Eigenlayer

Imran: Eigenlayer has not generated widespread interest among startup teams, mainly because financial security is not their primary focus. Developers are more focused on product launches and user growth.

Qiao: This is why we have emphasized many times that startups should focus on users and products, rather than optimizing the underlying infrastructure.

Polymarket and prediction market changes

Imran: We talked about the changes in Polymarket's trading volume, especially its attractiveness in the sports market. Although the overall trading volume of Polymarket has declined, the potential of prediction markets is still huge.

Qiao: Prediction market models are expanding, such as detecting misinformation on the Internet through market-based methods. This approach incentivizes users to submit evidence, expose bugs, and win rewards.

Imran: This market-based approach to Community Notes may be more effective than existing fact-checking mechanisms because it attracts wider user participation.

ICLs (Initial Community Offerings) vs. Venture Capital

Imran: ICLs are emerging as a mainstream way for community members to participate in startup financing. We believe that ICLs are not competing with meme coins, but with traditional venture capital.

Qiao: The venture capital model may be more focused, but ICLs provide a fairer and more decentralized option. Platforms like Pump have become the main venue for project launches.

The marriage of AI and cryptocurrency

Imran: We talked about how AI can be combined with cryptocurrency to create new consumer behaviors and application scenarios. Startups like Swife are exploring the combination of AI and social interaction to provide users with a more personalized experience.

Qiao: This trend is driving the entire industry forward, especially driven by the younger generation of developers.

Gen-Z’s Impact on the Crypto Industry

Imran: We have observed that many of the most successful crypto applications are developed by Gen-Z. This group is full of optimism and adventurous spirit, and they are more willing to try new directions than previous developers.

Qiao: The success of Ethereum is a typical case. Only 18 years old at the time, Vitalik launched Ethereum with a simple idea that many senior computer scientists were skeptical of.

Forecast for the second half of 2024

Imran: Our forecast for the second half of 2024 is that the market will continue to be dominated by AI and community-driven models. The return of ICLs, NFTs, and the rise of decentralized science may become new highlights.

Qiao: 2024 will be the year when distribution capabilities and community power determine the market structure. We will pay close attention to these trends and continue to drive innovation in the industry.

Trend Forecast for 2025

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Imran: I think Bitcoin will reach 250K in 2025. This is the market consensus. But I'm not sure if this is the peak because when everyone is predicting 250K, it could go even higher. I predict it may reach 350K.

Qiao: I will give a larger range, with a minimum of 150K and a maximum of 420K. It mainly depends on two points: first, the adoption of strategic Bitcoin reserves; second, the macro environment of the market.

Imran: If Trump takes office in early 2025 and adds Bitcoin to the strategic reserve, it will be an extremely bullish sign. He may take the form of an executive order to retain confiscated Bitcoins or even push the government to purchase new Bitcoins.

Qiao: Yes, this possibility exists. He may issue the relevant order on the first day of January 20, 2025.

Trends in Bitcoin Strategic Reserves

Imran: I've noticed that more and more small organizations, like community associations, and even some apartment complexes are starting to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. For example, a property management team purchased Bitcoin for $5,000 as operating reserves. This trend may expand from the local level to the national level.

Qiao: Yes, this phenomenon shows that Bitcoin adoption is extending from the government to the smaller community level. Ultimately, this could be a significant driver of continued Bitcoin price growth.

Ethereum and Solana

Imran: The price of Ethereum has been driven by ETFs and has been performing strongly recently. In contrast, Solana's price growth is limited, mainly due to supply pressure from FTX legacy and unlocked funds.

Qiao: The largest unlock of Solana will be in March 2025. I think Solana's performance may catch up to Bitcoin and Ethereum once the unlocking pressure is over.

Imran: Solana recently submitted an ETF application, which could be a game changer if successfully approved. Forecasts on Polymarket show a 74% chance of a Solana ETF launch before July 31, 2025.

AI Metaverse and AI Agent

Imran: The AI ​​metaverse is still in its first stage, currently dominated by extractors, with only 30% being actual builders. The next month or two will likely lead to phase two, where builders will start to take the lead.

Qiao: As one of the biggest trends, AI has shown great potential. We proved our judgment by investing in Goat tokens on day one. In the future, we may see more agency platforms and markets mature.

new market model

Qiao: Some new market models may emerge next year, such as market-driven decision-making mechanisms. Say a sports team is selecting a coach, prediction markets can help the team choose the best option by voting on the potential outcomes of different candidates.

Imran: We are incubating a similar project to drive decisions about future events through prediction markets. This approach can be applied in a variety of fields, such as sports, business and even public policy.