Alliance DAO founder talks: Fed is in a dilemma, Bitcoin will rise again next year

Guests: Imran Khan, founder of Alliance DAO; Qiao Wang, founder of Alliance DAO

Podcast source: Good Game Podcast

Original title: Trade War & The Markets | EP 74

Summary of key points

Imran and Qiao sat down to discuss the trade war and markets, providing the founders with straightforward cryptocurrency insights.

Wonderful view summary

Next year may be a good year for Bitcoin and risky assets.

• Qiao: I have not done anything with Bitcoin at the moment. Because my cost is basically zero and the tax rate is about 30%. So I have to be very sure that Bitcoin will fall 30% before choosing to sell, and I don't think so.
• Imran: I had already sold all the shares when I rebounded last time. I'm just going to wait and see. I currently only hold Bitcoin, Solana, Fartcoin and some cryptocurrencies. Fartcoin performed quite well, and I think it was a safe haven.
• The Fed's dual task is to promote employment and control inflation, rather than affecting market prices.
• I am pessimistic about the future of US stocks.
• What I worry most is not economic issues, but potential military conflicts.
• Bitcoin has to some extent both the growth of Nasdaq and the safe-haven characteristics of gold, so it is expected to perform well.
• If that's the case, I think there may be some kind of regional or even global conflict under the Biden administration. And under the Trump administration, I'm not sure if he will pay special attention to the Taiwan issue.
• China is in a leading position in many hardware manufacturing fields such as ships, automobiles, solar energy, etc., which are particularly important during war times. The United States has gradually lost this capability over the past few decades.
• If the purpose of the tariff is to bring manufacturing back to the United States, then tariffs may not be the best strategy. It is a wiser approach to investing in these industries to ensure that domestic companies are competitive in the global market, rather than damaging their own countries' industries through tariffs, which is a zero-sum game.
• Once businesses start using your AI products, it’s not easy for them to switch to other products because the business is more locked.

Movement Labs

Imran:

Have you seen the announcement from Movement Labs?

That 0x balloon lever account has been talking about Rushi and Movement for the past six months, involving insider trading, manipulating token prices and working with potentially less professional market makers. I don't know the details. Something happened during an event in China, and many people involved in the airdrop were very angry, resulting in the event hosted by Movement being suspended. Then the incident spread quickly. Many internet celebrities have begun to discuss Rushi's improper handling of token issuance. A few days ago, Rushi suddenly announced that he would take a temporary leave, but not permanently. We don't know more details yet, if you want to talk about this topic.

Qiao:

Has he sold his tokens?

Imran:

We don't know yet, but you know, OM Labs or OM, information disclosures about market makers and founders are not adequate, and so are exchanges. So many tokens seem good on Twitter, but they may actually be artificially made.

Qiao:

How could OM fall 90% in one minute?

Imran:

There is no clear explanation, but someone has pulled a large number of tokens from the market and sold them.

Qiao:

Is it a market maker or a specific person?

Imran:

Some people blame Laser Digital, a company based in Southeast Asia. They claimed they were not involved in the matter. But Hasie and several others mentioned that there is actually no transparent framework to illustrate how tokens are listed and the situation of market makers, and many areas are now quite opaque. Therefore, people may be misled to buy tokens, and these prices do not reflect the actual value of the market. So we see a lot of this.

Market discussion

Imran:

Do you have anything else to talk about? Have we discussed everything? market? OK, let 's talk about the market. We mentioned a little bit before that we may be bearish on the S&P 500. So, I think we can talk about what assets you hold now?

Qiao:

Actually, I'm selling stocks. Every time the market rebounds a lot, I sell some of the stocks, but I still hold those mentioned earlier: Google, TSMC and PDD.

I am indeed worried about the war. So I sold more TSMC than other stocks. Of course, my biggest position is Bitcoin, but I don't have much to operate on. I think Bitcoin will still trade as a mix of S&P 500 and gold. Recently, Bitcoin has performed basically between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, and is actually between the Nasdaq and gold. So I'm not doing anything with my bitcoin at the moment. I can't act rashly because my cost is basically zero and the tax rate is about 30%. So I have to be very sure that Bitcoin will fall 30% before choosing to sell, and I don't think so. This is my position.

Imran:

I've sold all my stocks on the last rebound. I'm just going to wait and see. I currently only hold Bitcoin, Solana, Fartcoin and some cryptocurrencies. Fartcoin performed quite well, and I think it was a safe haven.

I feel like all the money flowing into the safe haven is concentrated in one direction and something happens, like the case with Pepe. If you still remember Pepe, it was a similar market trend, but it was a bear market at that time. As we walked out of the bear market, if you remember, our market value rose from about 300 million, I sold half of it and then rose to about 3 billion or 4 billion. So this is similar to the dynamics at that time. Apart from that, nothing special. Let’s see how the market will develop.

Market forecast

Imran:

We were optimistic about the S&P 500 before, because we mentioned it several times on the show.

Qiao:

I'm not very bullish, I'm indeed bullish, but the increase is very limited.

Imran:

We all think it's good, we're bullish, but that's before Trump stumbles. We were very optimistic about cryptocurrencies at the beginning, but we were really tired. I mentioned it in the first episode of the show at the beginning of the year, and you also mentioned that although we are bullish, we are tired. This usually means you should sell, but we don't sell because we are a staunch supporter of the cryptocurrency space, right? We like to stick to holding in market volatility.

Qiao:

In the short term, I am pessimistic about US stocks, and I don't have a particularly clear view of Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin has to some extent both the growth potential of Nasdaq and the safe-haven characteristics of gold, it is expected to perform well. However, I'm not sure how Bitcoin will perform, but next year may be a good year for Bitcoin and risky assets.

Cryptocurrency regulation

Qiao:

I find this a headache because Massari tried to solve this problem in 2017, right? It's been 8 years since it was still an open question.

For example, who owns what tokens and who is selling them? Under Article 5 of the Securities Act, if you are a major shareholder of a company and sell shares, it usually requires immediate disclosure, usually within one or two days. Whenever Warren Buffett sells shares in the company he owns, I always receive a disclosure email from the SEC. I think this number is more than 10% of the shares. There are reasons for these regulations.

Imran:

I agree. I think the permissionless nature of the market has led to a lack of adequate regulatory frameworks and no one really takes responsibility for what this should be. As far as I know, they even discussed the process where we should have quarterly earnings reports. Each quarter, we should hold a conference call to review what we did, what we were going to do next, and provide some forward-looking guidance on how we think the market and how the company will grow.

Qiao:

The good thing about cryptocurrencies is that you can do these every day, not just quarterly. Yes, because everything is on the chain. If someone sells their internal shares, this is visible on the chain. You simply associate the address with the owner's identity. This way, you can get automatic disclosure in real time. This is something traditional finance cannot do, and this is why they need to do quarterly reports, etc.

Imran:

Then the question becomes, who will take this responsibility? Is this something a company like ByteDance does? Or will a company like Jupiter do it? Or is this more like a form of self-regulation?

Qiao:

This is a conversation we had with Massari seven years ago. Unfortunately, it turns out that this is not a problem that a startup can solve. Like Massari at that time, there were only 5 people. This should be a problem that large exchanges and top players in other industries have jointly solved. Unfortunately, this didn't happen. This is definitely the responsibility of ByteDance, Coinbase and other companies.

Imran:

I'm curious how this will work. Some kind of connection must be established between exchanges, market makers and founders in order for this to happen. But I don't think this will happen under the Trump administration.

Qiao:

I was thinking the other day that if cryptocurrencies end up failing, it would be the biggest question of the free market. Because in traditional finance, you can say that due to the regulation, SEC, etc., the market is not completely free. There is indeed a central planner to make some rules. And in cryptocurrencies, we don't have these rules. Yes, maybe these rules are actually necessary, and 100% completely free market may not be the ideal practice. Maybe it should be 90% free, and 10% requires centralized planning and supervision.

Imran:

I agree with this. I do think there should be a moderate level of regulation to regulate how IPOs or ICOs are handled.

The impact of the speculative nature of cryptocurrency

Imran:

This may be because cryptocurrencies are not usually considered reliable investments, obviously because of their speculative nature, which in turn affects our overall image. Therefore, high-quality talents may not want to enter this tech industry because they see everything happening. If you see shootings on social media, are you really excited about changing the world ahead? Probably not. But if you say stablecoins and frame it that way, you say, "Okay, we're cryptocurrencies, but it's not, we're stable."

Qiao:

It's not a perfect analogy, but it feels like Web3 has split out from cryptocurrencies four years ago. And, extreme supporters of Bitcoin have been trying to avoid being associated with cryptocurrencies. So Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are two mutually exclusive concepts. And now stablecoins are also distinguished from cryptocurrencies.

Imran:

This might be a better option. You know, for high-end talent like Silicon Valley, they might be more willing to join this sub-industry because that way they can separate their work from traditional cryptocurrencies. "Oh, I'm not working on cryptocurrency, I'm working on stablecoins."

Qiao:

I'm not sure because their understanding of stablecoins is relatively easy. Even though Bitcoin is not easy to understand for many people, stablecoins are like an extension of financial technology. It's basically FinTech 2.0, involving payments and remittances, something that traditional technicians can almost understand.

Imran:

Yes, that's what I call narrative. I'm not worried about this. If we can achieve this, it may be beneficial to the entire cryptocurrency industry.

trade war

Imran:

We see a lot of interesting things when it comes to the trade war. Trump just tweeted today that we may reach an agreement with China soon and then the market will rise.

The S&P 500 rose 0.79%. Yesterday, I heard Powell's speech in Chicago, and someone asked him whether the Fed would interfere in the stock market, and everyone laughed. Powell responded that although everyone hopes the Fed will intervene, we believe the economy is performing well. Actually, I think in the coming months, the market is working hard to digest this new information. Before this, the market will be in a state of uncertainty and don’t know what to do next. So it's hard for me to make a decision until everything is clear.

Qiao:

He tried to put pressure on him.

Imran:

I don't agree with this way of pressure. Powell said the market is digesting all the information. If the market is still in volatile state, what is the point of any decision I make? I agree with this.

Qiao:

Technically speaking, the market is not one of the Fed's dual tasks.

Imran:

The Fed's dual task is to promote employment and control inflation, rather than affecting market prices.

Qiao:

But you can see that this is becoming an aspect of the Fed's focus. Even if it's not their mandate, it's fun. However, overall, the situation of the trade war.

Imran:

What do you think about this?

Qiao:

I think the consequences of the trade war have a much worse impact on businesses, consumers and markets than expected. In the past few weeks, retail investors are still "buying on dips". What do you think? Have you talked to people around you? I feel people still expect the Fed to save the market. They have been buying and there are few signs of giving up. This is one aspect. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks are still very expensive. Even if the future profits remain unchanged, why not? Because tariffs will affect profits. But even so, the current P/E ratio of US stocks is still around 24, which is very high in historical standards.

Qiao:

I am pessimistic about the future of US stocks. I'm very unoptimistic about the outlook for U.S. stocks. While it may be difficult to predict in the short term, I think the market will gradually become aware of these issues within three to six months.

Imran:

I think the market will react only after everything is finalized, because there are so many uncertainties at the moment. People expect that once Trump announces a deal, we will have a V-shaped recovery, right? Everything will return to normal. People may withdraw their previous decisions and make some adjustments. But they didn’t realize that we may have been affected by all policy changes. Even in the short term, this impact will take time to recover.

Qiao:

I think the damage has been caused, and business confidence and consumer confidence have been psychologically affected. This means consumers will be more cautious in spending because there is too much uncertainty. The same is true for businesses, which cannot make large-scale investments because they cannot predict the tariff levels in a month or three months. Therefore, everyone will reduce their spending, which will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the economy. The tariffs reach 10%, if you think about it, 10% is not a small number. Yes, the tariff is 10%. But it is not for the price of the final product, but for the cost of production, which is worse than 10% of the final product price. If your business's profit margin is 10%, and the cost suddenly rises by 10%, you will not be profitable.

Someone posted a chart showing that even the 10% and 20% tariff levels were actually close to the level of the Hollis-Smoot Tariff in the late 1920s and early 1930s. This is the highest tariff level in the past century.

Imran:

Toy prices in the United States have risen 80% since then. So the three dollar toy you buy ends up spending seventy dollars, which is a classic example. The average car price will rise by 15%, which means an average increase of $7,600. In addition, each household will have an additional $3,800 in annual spending, just the average cost like grocery spending. These are things that people have not yet realized and have actually been affected.

Trade War Strategy Discussion

Imran:

So what is the US strategy in this trade war? I've read a lot of analyses and comments, and some traders and macroeconomic experts I'm following believe that US strategies may be similar to Scott Besson's point of view. His goal in the Treasury may be to curb China's development, as China has become a world power, ranking second and may surpass the United States. To achieve this, the United States may try to prevent other countries from trading with China. They want to create a multipolar world that takes advantage of the dollar's position in global commerce and trade as a security guarantee that attracts other countries to trade more with the United States than with China. For example, they try to take Vietnam as an example. I think Vietnam has just turned to cooperation with China.

They are also trying to trade with Japan and other countries. This is just an example. If successful, China's GDP could drop, forcing China to succumb to the pressure from the United States. This is what some people think. What do you think?

Qiao:

If this is their goal, then the actual execution is completely inconsistent with this. Because Trump's actions so far have not only dissatisfied China, but also have disturbed all the United States' allies, including several countries bordering China, such as Europe, Japan, South Korea, etc. Now, these countries are at least trying, or publicly expressing their willingness to negotiate with China to reduce each other's retaliatory tariffs. Spain, for example, has begun exporting pork to China with significantly reduced tariffs.

I've seen this in the news, although I don't know the specific numbers. There are similar situations in South Korea and Japan. China, South Korea and Japan have had historically tense relations, but now they have to cooperate in some way. At least in public. A similar situation occurred in the relationship between Vietnam and China. Therefore, actual policy implementation is inconsistent with the objectives of the statement. In my opinion, the more likely situation is that there is no clear strategy at all. Trump seems to be acting on intuition without careful consideration. This strategy is consistent with my impression of Trump as a businessman, who likes to bluff, create uncertainty, start with a big demand, and then gradually give in. This strategy is like the art of negotiation for beginners. Overall, I think this strategy is really bad, much worse than people expected.

The impact of trade war on global relations

Imran:

I think this trade war will have a profound impact on the world. Obviously, the U.S. stock market may be affected very negatively.

I noticed that some people mentioned on Twitter that for the first time many people have now added European stocks, gold and Bitcoin ratios to their portfolios as a new investment strategy.

Qiao:

What I worry most is not economic issues, but potential military conflicts.

Imran:

Do you think the situation will develop to what extent?

Qiao:

I mean, economic hardship can increase the risk of military conflict. If there is a real conflict, it is likely to be in the Taiwan Strait. Before the tariff issue arose, I estimate that the probability of a military conflict between the United States and China on the Taiwan issue is about 25%. However, after this tariff and uncertainty incident, I think this probability may rise to 50%.

Imran:

If that's the case, I think there may be some kind of regional or even global conflict under the Biden administration. And under the Trump administration, I'm not sure if he will pay special attention to the Taiwan issue.

Qiao:

But he cared about his image very much and did not want to appear weak. This is a reasonable consideration. I'm not sure to what extent the United States will participate, but I think the possibility of a military conflict between China and Taiwan will increase significantly.

Imran:

This is a reasonable point of view. If so, then regional conflicts may occur more than just Taiwan and China, which could have a catastrophic impact on global relations, commerce and trade. Yes, I just hope he can solve this problem properly, we just have to go through a moderate recession and then we can forget it all.

The impact of the trade war on startups

Imran:

So, what impact does this trade war have on local startups? I think, for example, it may be difficult for us to attract entrepreneurs from China and India. What do you think?

Qiao:

Don’t you think if the economy slows down, venture capital will slow down as well? This also affects the venture capital market, as the risk market usually reacts several quarters later than the public market.

Imran:

I think it also depends on our progress in the field of artificial intelligence. Because artificial intelligence is very popular nowadays. Did you know, I just did a quick data analysis and looked at the past two batches of YC startups. I want to know what the average valuation of these companies will be in the future. The results show that the average valuation of AI startups is about $22 million. That number is quite high for me, right? Ideally, you want this number to be around $15 million. The valuation of $22 million is particularly high without any product or even the Minimum Viable Product (MVP). I think this number will continue to rise.

So I do think we are approaching a turning point, especially in the field of AI, where things may change. Especially considering ongoing projects like OpenAI, Winsurf is a great example: Without any product, no one can ensure security unless they have some kind of network.

OpenAI attempts to acquire Windsurf

Imran:

Yesterday I mentioned in a chat that OpenAI tried to acquire a company called Windsurf for about $3 billion. OpenAI contacted Cursor twice, but was rejected. So they bought Windsurf.

You can think of OpenAI as an L1 and build the application on that basis. Companies with the most applications will have the best models so that they can attract more people to use the product and help them develop more applications. Is this correct understanding?

Qiao:

I thought of two points. First, so far, OpenAI has not developed the best coding model. They have been working hard, but Anthropic may have a better advantage in coding. Cursor and Windsurf may also be using Anthropic's model. For OpenAI, they do want to develop top-level coding models, but this requires a lot of data.

So where does the data come from? You can obtain encoded data by purchasing data from companies that specifically provide data annotations, such as Scale AI. But another way to get data is to get it directly from Cursor or Windsurf. Because when you use Cursor and Windsurf to encode, you are actually providing data to these platforms. You will prompt, request code suggestions and accept these codes, right? As a user, you accept the advice. This is actually a kind of annotation for the model output. It's almost like reinforcement learning with manual feedback. Therefore, these data are very valuable. That's why OpenAI wants this data. This is also the reason why they tried to acquire Cursor but were rejected, and now they have acquired OneServe. This is the first point that comes to my mind.

The second point is that these large AI labs may be focusing on the direction of the market, that is, where users are and where their interests are. They may be worried that the underlying model will be commodified over time, which is somewhat similar to the case with cryptocurrencies, right? The base layer may gradually become commercialized, while the application layer will capture a lot of value. Therefore, by acquiring applications that already have a large number of users, such as Windsurf or Cursor, they can consolidate their position in the application layer. Because ChatGPT is an application, right? ChatGPT is an application built on various OpenAI models. But they want more, they want coding applications, and maybe there is something else in the future. So I think that's their acquisition strategy.

OpenAI as a super application

Imran:

In my opinion, it's more like a super app. You should have seen an announcement about OpenAI exploring in the social field. It's almost like a comprehensive platform that can experience all kinds of AI, whether it's a tool for coding, a tool for generating photos and videos to create content and stories, or even general intelligence that helps you understand everyday affairs, like those things you search for with Google. This development is interesting because it can be said that for every new product that OpenAI launches, it is gradually replacing hundreds of startups focusing on specific fields. Even in our own field, we focus on a very specific market segment, such as building applications around cryptocurrencies. We think there is a unique opportunity here due to the nature of cryptocurrencies. But you can say that a lot of these things may be replaced by larger companies.

Qiao:

In fact, almost half of YC's startups are saying that whenever a new underlying model emerges, their ideas are no longer feasible. Of course, they can adjust their direction at any time, but as soon as the new basic model appears, their current ideas lose their utility.

Investing in AI companies

Imran:

Another interesting phenomenon is that I don't know if you've seen that chart showing the investments of venture capital companies like Index Ventures, A16Z, LightSpeed ​​in major AI companies. The chart shows that these venture capital firms typically invested two to three times in these startups. Vinod Khosla only invested once in its early stages, which was OpenAI.

Imran:

Interestingly, I had a conversation with Founders Fund yesterday. They only made one investment in the AI ​​field, mainly OpenAI. They also have some small investments in other specific AI companies, but that's very niche. When I talked to them, they mentioned that Peter Thiel didn’t want to overinvest in AI. He thinks it will all be eroded like an internet bubble. So he told the team very clearly not to focus too much on AI, because it reminded him of the internet bubble.

Qiao:

I remember he expressed a similar view about half a year ago, and I saw that interview on the "All In". Yes, he did mention the similarities between AI and the internet bubble.

Imran:

So he reiterated this when he launched a new fund recently, emphasizing that they shouldn’t invest too much in AI right now.

AI vs. Cryptocurrency startups

Imran:

It can be said that the market's attention to AI has reached an extremely high consensus and the competition is extremely fierce. If you think the competition in the cryptocurrency space is already fierce, then you should look at what is happening in the AI ​​space. In our current batch, there are several AI startups, and each has about 25 to 50 competitors.

Qiao:

I think the competition and congestion in the AI ​​field now may be several times higher than that of cryptocurrency startups.

Imran:

I feel like the cryptocurrency field has become less unified to some extent.

Qiao:

In fact, this inconsistency has become increasingly apparent over the past two years.

Imran:

So much so that they began to try to redefine cryptocurrencies from a completely new perspective. For example, the founder of Bridge.xyz said a few days ago that after cloud computing and mobile Internet, the next big platform should be stablecoins. Therefore, he completely ruled out cryptocurrencies in the discussion, believing that stablecoins are the direction of the next major change.

Exciting startups in AI and cryptocurrency sectors

Imran:

Which startups are you particularly excited about? Because from a technical point of view, we can predict industry trends at least one quarter in advance, right? So what are the startups you are most interested in?

Qiao:

I think there are many startups in our current batch that focus on stablecoins, and about one-third of them are in this area, and they are all committed to specific regions or application scenarios, such as remittance or revenue management. In addition, we also have AI startups focused on specific industry areas, such as a tool company for scientific research, and one that uses AI video models for advertising. In addition, there is a team that provides encoding services specifically for encryption applications. Their team is quite strong and it is also very exciting.

Poof.new

Imran:

I'm very excited about working with a few startups that have excite me, and obviously, I'm interested in those companies you mentioned. However, Poof.new is a platform that provides coding services for cryptocurrencies, and I think they have unique advantages in this regard. The team is very strong, their members are from Phantom and Coinbase, have a deep understanding of the field, and have developed similar products on Flow two or three years ago. So they have the expertise to build great products, which is very important in my opinion.

Slop.club

Imran:

This project is somewhat experimental. I know what you think of it. However, Slop.club is a video generation platform. It uses some of the latest models, such as Google's Clean and Vo, which can bring people together to create and remix content. This feature is cool, and you can even upload images and then generate some interesting video models around them. This interaction and remixing behavior has indeed triggered some new trends among consumers. In fact, OpenAI's entry point in the market is the generation of images and videos. So the question is, how will these video models be used? I think Slop is a bit like 4chan, but it is focused on video models.

Qiao:

The core insight is that video models can achieve new behaviors that were not possible before. Yes, this greatly reduces the time delay in video creation and remix. Because before that, it took a long time for a creator to make a video. And now, you can generate videos in seconds with a prompt, at most minutes. The same is true for remix, you can remix on the fly, which may have taken longer before. This is the core insight behind this product.

01 Exchange

Imran:

The last one is 01 exchange, which was created by the Photon and Bullex teams. You may have seen tweets about the founders of Bullex today and they don’t seem to respond too positively. They make a lot of money, and in the cryptocurrency space, the founder’s incentives are a unique challenge. For example, even if you are a billionaire or have hundreds of millions of dollars in your bank account, are you willing to continue developing a product? This is a unique challenge for crypto founders, and the best founders are able to overcome this difficulty. The Pump.fun team is a perfect example. They earn a lot of revenue and are constantly innovating in their products, and recently announced live streaming features. This is a unique challenge founders must face.

Imran:

Bullex slowed down a bit, and Photon was about the same. I'm not sure how their products are going. So the team at 01 exchange is very eager, they work hard all the time and have some unique ways to build upgraded products for traders. These are some of the products I mentioned.

The impact of military conflict on the development of AI

Qiao:

Potential military conflicts could lead to disruptions in semiconductor supply chains, which would have an impact on the development of artificial intelligence, especially in robotics, as they rely more on hardware.

Imran:

And a lot of hardware is imported from China, right?

Qiao:

Many advanced chips do come from China. Although they are not the most cutting-edge chips, such as chips with a 3-nanometer process, the production of chips that are slightly lower and a large number of other electronic components is carried out in China.

China's dominance in the field of robots

Imran:

Interestingly, I found that China dominated the robotics field. Specifically, although I haven't delved into humanoid robots, China accounts for 51% of the market share in global industrial robot manufacturing, while the United States accounts for only 5%.

Imran:

This means that if the production and sales of humanoid robots expand, the main market may be occupied by China, not the United States.

Qiao:

I think the development of robotics may be like digital artificial intelligence and AI agents. In other words, the United States will be the first to innovate, become a leader, and create many new technologies, and then China will intervene to make these technologies cheaper and more efficient.

Imran:

Uber founder Travis Kalanick mentioned in a podcast that earlier he competed with Chinese competitors, and every time he launched a new feature, Chinese companies could copy it in one day. He was very surprised by this speed and therefore developed a certain respect for these Chinese startups.

Look at BYD's cars, they perform very well. I don't know if you've seen the related video. The car's suspension system can be moved up and down. I've seen a lot of cool features and even considered whether to buy one. Although I can't buy it in the United States, I really want to know about it.

Qiao:

I talked to a person who knows a lot about Chinese electric cars yesterday. The advantage of Chinese electric cars is that they have a luxurious appearance, better interior than Tesla, and cheaper prices and good battery performance. But the disadvantage is that the safety is not high, and there are many reports about the spontaneous combustion of these cars.

The battery catches fire, and the driver is not injured in a car accident, but because the battery explodes. This is a problem. This type of news is usually not made public because it will be reviewed quickly.

Another problem is fully autonomous driving (FSD). They don't have this technology. You know, Tesla is far ahead in fully autonomous driving.

China's progress in solar energy

Imran:

Which products do you think China is ahead of the United States?

Qiao:

In the solar field, especially in energy.

Imran:

I think they make about 80% of the solar panels worldwide.

Qiao:

almost. These changes have mainly occurred in the past decade and have developed very rapidly. Ten years ago, there was almost no such industry in China, and then they began to invest a lot of money into these industries. I think there are strategic considerations behind this.虽然我不确定，但我认为中国大量投资于硬件制造，是因为在战争时期，这些产业会变得非常关键。现在，中国在船舶、汽车、太阳能等许多硬件制造领域都处于领先地位，而这些在战争时期尤为重要。美国在过去几十年中逐渐失去了这种能力。

Imran：

我觉得美国甚至从未真正具备这种能力。比如说，我读《芯片战争》这本书时发现，即使在那时，美国生产的芯片良率也不高。我认为他们在这方面做了一些努力。

Qiao：

这让我想到了关税战争。如果关税的目的是把制造业带回美国，那么关税可能不是最佳策略。更明智的做法是投资这些产业，确保本国的企业在全球市场上具有竞争力，而不是通过关税损害自己国家的产业，这是一种零和博弈。

Imran：

确实是零和博弈。是的，你必须更加努力和快速地竞争。在美国重新投资制造业时，需要小心不要提高成本，因为这会影响消费者信心以及全球经济。不过，我不太确定，有人说特朗普在进行复杂的战略博弈。

上市的优势

Imran：

我在阅读Snapchat 的相关信息时，了解到创始人Evan 最近做了一次演讲。他提到，公司上市后，他们在运营方面变得更加高效，无论是后台管理还是用户获取方面都得到了提升。

这确实帮助他更好地管理公司。因此，我认为上市确实带来了一些积极的影响，因为它促使创始人在资本管理和用户获取方面更加谨慎。如果你要推出新产品，上市也迫使创始人不仅要关注短期目标，还要考虑到未来5 到10 年的发展。因此，我认为，通过上市来提升运营效率是非常重要的。

AI 的最新动态

Imran：

最近在AI 领域有什么新鲜事吗？我们聊过一些收购的事，不过你觉得如果一个创业者想在某个领域开发产品，他们会不会担心OpenAI 或其他大型AI 公司可能带来的影响呢？有没有哪些行业或者领域比较安全？

Qiao：

我个人觉得企业用例比消费类用例更安全一些。你可能有不同的看法。我是从企业领域来的，可以给你一些理由。

我觉得企业对变革的抵抗力更强。一旦企业开始使用你的AI 产品，他们就不太容易转向其他产品，因为企业锁定程度更深。原因在于，企业是由一群人组成的，而消费者通常是一个人。所以协调一群人去换产品要比协调一个人难得多，对吧？所以我认为这就是企业转换成本比消费者高的原因。 What do you think?

Imran：

你的观点很有道理。不过在实际操作中，我看到企业确实对变革有抵触。是的，但他们抵触变革是因为很多产品都是捆绑销售的。

Qiao：

比如说微软。如果你订阅了Office 365，你很可能还会使用Azure、Outlook 等其他产品，基本上被锁定了。

Imran：

微软Teams 就是一个典型例子。微软Teams 在某种程度上阻碍了Slack 的增长，因为它对所有Office 365 的订阅者都是免费的，而这些订阅者大多是企业。

所以我觉得，企业实际上更容易将这些客户转化为新的产品，因为他们已经被订阅锁定了。比如Canva，昨天我们的一位创始人发推说他们推出了自己的教育产品。这些教育机构，比如学校、大学，可以看作企业客户，他们都被锁定在这个软件中。现在他们发布了一个新产品，任何孩子都可以创建一个应用，对吧？所以想象一下，像Lovable 或Bold 这样的产品可以免费提供给所有人。那些原本想争取这些客户的初创公司，现在就没机会了。他们仍可以尝试逐个争取，但需要一个销售团队去渗透每一个市场。

不过这里有一个反例，就是Zoom。我之前提过这个例子，虽然Zoom 现在不如以前，但在疫情期间，Zoom 的使用量激增。Zoom 成功的一个原因是每个消费者都在使用它。因为消费者在用，企业也更容易接受并采用这个新的视频平台，因为他们在家里每天都在使用它。

同样的情况发生在iPhone 和BlackBerry 之间。 BlackBerry 曾是企业硬件设备的标准，而iPhone 变得无处不在。这一切都是通过消费者渠道发生的。一旦消费者接受了，企业就不得不改变。历史上就是这样发生的。这次会有所不同吗？ Maybe.

Qiao：

但你并没有反驳我的观点。我说的是，企业更难被OpenAI 干扰。如果你为企业开发一个AI 产品，OpenAI 的干扰会相对较小，而为消费者开发的产品则更容易被干扰。

Imran：

OpenAI 可以为企业开发产品。他们已经有企业支持。因为他们是先行者，很多企业可能已经在某种程度上采用了OpenAI 的产品。因此，OpenAI 进入企业市场是相对容易的。

Qiao：

你的意思是因为OpenAI 有大量的消费者，所以他们也更容易进入企业市场？

Imran：

没错，因为他们已经与AI 划上了等号。所以，他们更容易赢得与AI 相关的邻近产品。微软也是如此。微软和OpenAI 之间的竞争就是一个例子。你知道的，微软做出了一些重大举措，他们之间的竞争非常激烈。他们将很多原本在Azure 上的工作负载转移到了Oracle 和其他提供商，以平衡与微软的竞争。因此，微软现在也在开发自己的产品，他们必须赢得这些用户。所以，OpenAI 正在与所有人竞争。我认为他们正在与太多的对手在太多的战线上作斗争，而这样做往往会导致失败。

Qiao：

回到最初的问题，哪些类型的AI 应用更难被OpenAI 轻易干扰？我认为，纯粹的应用层初创公司相对于OpenAI 有一个优势，因为这些应用层初创公司可以选择多种基础模型，而这些模型各不相同。在某些领域，某些模型的表现可能更好。例如，Cursor 和Windsurf 就使用了Anthropic 的模型，因为在编码方面，Anthropic 的模型优于OpenAI 的模型。因此，OpenAI 不能仅凭自己的模型来构建开发工具，他们必须去收购Cursor 或Windsurf。这就是应用层初创公司抵御OpenAI 的一种防御能力。这有道理吗？这本质上是网络效应。

Imran：

是的，选择不同模型的能力。你只有在有分销渠道的情况下才能做到这一点，对吧？

Qiao：

但你之所以能获得分销，是因为你首先构建了有用的东西。

Imran：

我认为在这些情况下，他们都是市场的先行者，并且迅速适应了。

Qiao：

我认为很难预测哪些行业能够抵御OpenAI 的冲击。这真的很难预测。

Imran：

因为这主要取决于两个因素。第一，应用是否能快速行动，以获取大量用户并拥有广泛的分销；第二，取决于OpenAI 实际上想做什么，他们想进入哪些行业。这真的很难预测。

OpenAI o3

Qiao：

OpenAI 刚刚发布了o3，他们的基准测试结果相当不错。我觉得他们表现得非常出色。

有人说这接近于通用人工智能的模型，我不太喜欢这种说法。

Qiao：

不过有人给它出了个简单的数学题，结果它没能解出来。

Imran：

不过这o3 排名都很高，表现超过了Gemini 2.5。所以o3 现在是这个类别中表现最好的模型，尤其是在长文本推理方面。

Imran：

那和谷歌的Gemini 比起来呢？

Qiao：

正如我所说，我认为谷歌的Gemini 2.5 现在是第二名。

AI 模型的竞争性

Qiao：

这又回到了之前的观点，应用层的优势在于它们能够快速适应最新的模型，而OpenAI 只能使用自己的模型，这就是一个根本性的区别。

Imran：

在这个阶段，模型本身几乎不那么重要了，关键是他们的分销渠道。

Qiao：

Yes.我觉得切换模型比换平台要容易得多。 AI 模型的防御能力较低，更像是商品化，而区块链则不那么容易被替代。

Imran：

有趣的是，虽然如此，比如扎克最近发布了Llama 3 和Llama 4，竞争变得非常激烈。现在几乎没人愿意用Llama 4。有趣的是，一些离开的研究人员，比如曾参与Llama 2 和Llama 3 的，现在去了OpenAI。你可以看看他的LinkedIn。

Qiao：

Have you seen it?我看到那条消息了，挺有趣的。他在工作描述中写道，他参与了Llama 2 和Llama 3，但没有参与之前的版本。

Imran：

这一切都显示出竞争的激烈程度。如果没有资金或者顶尖人才，就没有竞争优势。所以模型方面的竞争已经结束。像OpenRouter 和Freedom GBT 这样的聚合模型是一个有趣的方向。

Imran：

因为至少这样的话，我曾向一些人推销Freedom GBT 的想法，我问他们，是否觉得OpenAI 是唯一的选择。顺便说一下，我问了大约25 个人，没有人听说过其他任何东西，包括Perplexity 和Gemini。现在人们只知道OpenAI。我跟那些12 到18 岁的孩子们交谈，他们从未听说过OpenAI 以外的任何东西。

因为至少这样的话，我曾向一些人推销Freedom GBT 的想法，问他们是否认为OpenAI 是唯一的选择。顺便说一下，我问了大约25 个人，没有人听说过其他任何东西，包括Perplexity 和Gemini。现在人们只知道OpenAI。我跟那些12 到18 岁的孩子们交谈，他们从未听说过OpenAI 以外的任何东西。

然后我向他们介绍Freedom GBT 的想法，问他们是否了解这个问题，他们说有时候他们讨厌OpenAI 没有回应他们的某些问题。我问他们，想知道X 吗？他们说当然。然后我问他们是否了解Freedom GBT，我向他们解释了整个模型的概念和OpenAI 的概念。最后他们明白了。

Qiao：

我现在使用AI 的方式是，通常我会问一个问题，至少会问几个不同的模型。通常是ChatGPT 和Gemini，但有时候我也用DeepSeek、Claude，因为它们给出的答案各不相同，我需要在它们之间进行交叉验证。

Imran：

我发现有些模型我会选择特定用途，我们在上次的节目中也讨论过。比如，我知道Google 的Gemini 在某些方面有明显的优势。我非常喜欢Google 的Gemini，因为它可以分析YouTube 视频和其他专有内容，对吧？

它实际上会调取所有来源，所有视频，都是从哪里提取内容的。我认为YouTube 上有很多细微的观点或信息是其他地方找不到的。因此，我觉得这是一个非常有趣的切入点。

AI 的记忆功能

Imran：

我们之前讨论过记忆功能，因为我和Oak 在这方面做了不少改进。我觉得这里面有一些模式，而你似乎不这么认为。你觉得记忆功能有模式吗？我很想听听你的看法。

Qiao：

我觉得确实有一些模式存在。虽然不是特别明显，但也不是完全没有。当然，它是有用的，不过我不太确定他们具体做了哪些改进。所谓的「完全记忆」到底是什么意思呢？我以前问过ChatGPT，比如说，你觉得我的MBTI 类型是什么，基于你对我的了解。它给出的答案还不错。我一直以为记忆功能已经存在了。所以我不太清楚他们发布这个功能时具体有什么变化。

Imran：

是的，我也不太清楚具体影响。从我了解到的信息来看，他们扩展了记忆功能，可以在不同对话中记住更多关于你的信息，并从中提取数据。我知道OpenAI 有一个记忆按钮，有时我会重置它。这是以前的事，因为我很谨慎。现在我不太担心了，因为它有了我的一些背景信息，这样可以更好地提供答案。你会感觉这些答案是为你量身定制的。比如，它知道我在X 和Y 方面有问题，所以可能会因为这个调整答案。我很感激这种功能。有时候，我会觉得它像个人，似乎了解我一样。这种感觉让我有些不安，因为我知道这只是AI。但如果我有这种感觉，我想很多人可能已经和它建立了某种关系。

Qiao：

就像钢铁侠和贾维斯一样。我并不认为它是一个有意识的存在，虽然有些人可能这么觉得。

Imran：

我并不觉得它有意识，但它的对话方式，以及它如何针对你量身定制谈话，确实有一些人类情感的体现。就像你可以和某人产生共鸣，它也能与你产生共鸣，我觉得这很奇怪。

我认为这里面确实有一些模式。因为你和某个系统的联系越紧密，它对你的了解越多，你就越难以切换到其他东西。