Author of the article: Echo, MetaEra

Article source: MetaEra

It’s time for the year-end summary again. The market situation in 2024 is complicated, the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved, the halving event is coming as scheduled, the price is soaring, the computing power reaches a new high, the ecology is rising, the political arena is changing, and the benefits are continuous... Many factors are driving BTC to set off a global trend. With the investment boom, the currency price has hit new highs again and again, breaking through the $100,000 mark. The Google trends index has more than doubled compared to last year, and the highlight moment has begun! 2024 is a landmark year for the entire crypto industry. Every major event is engraved with the future trajectory of Bitcoin and even the entire cryptocurrency market.

This report uses time as the context and events as nodes. MetaEra will take stock of the key moments that affect the fate of Bitcoin. Let us walk into the Bitcoin major events in 2024 and experience the glory and hardships of this year.

Crypto opening moment: Bitcoin spot ETF approved

On January 10, a landmark change ushered in the U.S. financial arena—the BTC ETF was approved. This allows institutional investors such as listed companies, pension funds, and various funds in the United States to openly use this financial tool to enter this mysterious field, opening a new era of publicly purchasing and holding Bitcoin.

In April, the first batch of Hong Kong Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF products applied by the Hong Kong subsidiaries of ChinaAMC, Boshi and Harvest Funds were officially approved by the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission. Subsequently, on April 30, these high-profile products were gloriously launched. Officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The market cheered the launch of ETFs. The depth of products in the crypto market increased. Institutions entered the market in large numbers and rejoiced. Past doubts turned to the pursuit of value storage. Traditional capital poured into the crypto world, and crypto investments became increasingly close to the Web 2.0 market.

In the short term after the news was released, the overall performance of the Bitcoin market was stable and no shocks occurred. Many people question the weak behavior of ETFs, institutional conspiracy theories frequently appear, and arguments of "just a flowery job without real work" are emerging one after another. All these unknowns are like a magnet, attracting the attention of countless investors and industry observers, becoming the most suspenseful chapter in the future development of Bitcoin. Amid the turbulent undercurrents, Bitcoin adheres to the "time machine theory", waiting for new thrust and using time to prove its value.

Image source: SoSoValue

Bitcoin Halving: A Crucial Twist of Destiny

On April 20, Bitcoin halved at block height 840,000. After the halving, the block reward will drop from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins.

Normally, the price of BTC will rise after halving. After all, the price hit new highs after the previous three halvings without exception. Many investors also have the same expectations for the halving in April 2024, believing that this will undoubtedly be a new driving force for currency prices after the ETF action.

However, judging from the price in the months after the halving, the Bitcoin price did not immediately reach a new historical high after experiencing a small retracement period in the short term. It was only after a series of actions such as halving, conferences, political elections, regulatory changes, and industry strategic reserves that it took off and rose significantly. Judging from the halving mechanism and past halving history, halving has a large impact, usually leading to market fluctuations and increasing speculation in the crypto field; reshaping the mining industry, with miners’ profit points declining; stimulating the blockchain ecosystem technological innovation and community development within. The halving event may also provide a hedge against inflation and enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as a long-term investment asset.

The above information shows that while the halving helps strengthen Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative, macroeconomic factors can also have a significant impact on Bitcoin price. The mysterious power of Bitcoin cannot be accurately predicted and inferred based on history. It is refreshing the world's understanding at every stage, and we cannot stop its pace. As Binance CEO Richard Teng said: We need to take a longer-term view and look at market performance from the perspective of market cycles. We should not worry about when the bulls and bears will come, but should focus on the long-term trends and fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin always goes to the moon unexpectedly and gains mythical gains in the thousands of moments of doubt, calmness and anxiety. We just have to wait, Bitcoin is still great.

BTC ecological basic service provider: miners, strong confidence vs.

survival crisis?

From the perspective of miners, the Bitcoin mining situation in 2024 is changing. Not only has the hash price dropped due to the halving and it has been a rollercoaster of economic returns, but the development of Inscription Rune in the first half of the year has also quietly changed the main source of income for miners, like an ecological enlightenment. In the past, mining relied on a single traditional block reward, but as these new things have sprung up, the focus of revenue has slowly shifted to infrastructure service gas fees. Taking Bitcoin's fourth halving period as an example, transaction fees soared significantly, and Rune tokens paid high fees on the halving block, becoming an important component of miners' income. According to statistics, since January 1, 2024, of the overall miner fee income, standard financial transactions account for 67%, Runes account for 19%, BRC-20 and Ordinals transactions together account for 14%, and the proportion of gas fee income is increasing day by day.

Against this background, the role of miners is undergoing a profound transformation. They are no longer simply block producers, but more like infrastructure service providers of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Relying on the network resources and infrastructure advantages accumulated through mining, miners can provide services for various transactions and obtain Gas fees. This transformation enables miners to be deeply integrated into all aspects of the Bitcoin ecosystem. While promoting ecological development, they will closely connect their own destiny with the entire ecosystem and explore a more sustainable development path under the new economic model.

Bitcoin Conference: The Origin of Market Rhythm

At the mid-point of the year, on July 27, the Bitcoin 2024 conference landed in Nashville. On this stage that gathered global attention, well-known politicians such as Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appeared on stage. Their remarks and remarks surrounding Bitcoin The proposed measures were like blockbuster bombs, setting off waves at the conference and even in the entire cryptocurrency industry.

Trump delivered a speech for nearly an hour. Although it was an hour later than scheduled, the tens of thousands of spectators at the scene were still enthusiastic. In his speech, Trump fully recognized the status of BTC as a scarce asset and a safe-haven asset, and agreed that BTC will surpass gold to become the world's largest asset class in the future. He also stated that the United States must maintain its status as a cryptocurrency superpower, and also emphasized that it If elected, he will fire SEC Chairman Gray Gensler on his first day in office, who has been restricting the development of cryptocurrency at the compliance level, and has made 13 major commitments on cryptocurrency :

● On day one I will fire Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC Chairman.

● If elected, establish a U.S. government strategic national Bitcoin reserve.

● The U.S. government will retain 100% of what it owns

● Bitcoin will fly to the moon.

● Never sell your Bitcoins.

● Bitcoin may one day exceed the market capitalization of gold.

● I reiterate my commitment to reducing Ross Ulbricht's sentence.

● There will never be a CBDC during my term as President of the United States if elected President.

● Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will soar like never before.

● Bitcoin does not threaten the US dollar, it is the current US government that threatens the US dollar.

● The United States will become the cryptocurrency capital of the world and the Bitcoin superpower of the world.

● Bitcoin represents freedom, sovereignty and independence from government coercion and control.

● I promise the Bitcoin community that the day I am sworn in, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ anti-crypto campaign will end.

Whether it was due to his character or just for a laugh, he obviously improvised at the end: "I wish everyone a good time, whether it is Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, or others." Taking advantage of the conference, he worked hard for his political blueprint. Got a big vote.

It's like a star-studded political and financial feast. The market price performance during and after the Bitcoin Conference sometimes jumped to new highs lightly; sometimes it briefly pulled back to accumulate strength. The conference is like a huge whirlpool of crypto information, where all kinds of information about Bitcoin’s technological innovation, policy interpretation, and market trends converge and merge, and then spread like ripples to the entire cryptocurrency field. There are also divergent opinions in the industry about politicians' remarks and actions, and we look forward to the test of time.

Bull market outlook: The positive impact of the US election

At 14:27 on November 6, the US presidential election was settled, and Trump became the final winner. The 78-year-old returned to the White House with the support of encryption power.

Trump's victory and his subsequent announcement of a series of measures beneficial to the encryption industry have had a very significant positive impact on the price of Bitcoin. After the election results were confirmed, the Bitcoin market was the first to take notice, and investors poured into the market based on strong expectations for favorable future policies.

After taking office, he announced that he would take a number of measures to benefit the crypto industry, including repealing the SAB 121 bill after taking office on January 20 next year, clearing obstacles for traditional financial institutions to enter, and promoting the institutional development of crypto assets, making a large amount of potential funds With legal and compliance channels flowing into the Bitcoin market, Bitcoin's market capacity and financial depth will be expanded; following the Bitcoin Conference's commitment, it is planned to abolish the original SEC chairman on the first day of taking office and appoint crypto-friendly Paul Atkins as the new chairman. Next SEC Chairman, sending a strong signal of regulatory relaxation to the market has doubled investors’ confidence; promoting the establishment of strategic Bitcoin reserves, influencing the market from the perspective of supply and demand, retaining Bitcoin ownership and expanding expectations, reducing the number of Bitcoins on the market selling pressure while increasing its appeal as a strategic asset; it plans to stop government Bitcoin sales and use Bitcoin as investment holding assets; its companies are also negotiating with Intercontinental Exchange to acquire the cryptocurrency exchange Bakkt The incident has also injected new vitality and imagination into the Bitcoin trading ecosystem, attracting more investors to participate, and indirectly helping the price rise.

Bitcoin is riding the wave of U.S. policy and making great strides on the upward trajectory of its price. Its future development space and potential are becoming increasingly vast under the intertwining of this series of positive factors. Welcome to the new Trump-fueled era of cryptocurrencies!

A new situation in the political world: core politicians have expressed

mixed opinions, and government reserves have entered the situation

Driven by the historic market rally, some countries are considering establishing national Bitcoin reserves , and we are pleased to witness a significant trend: more and more political figures are beginning to cast their eyes on its value.

Presumptive U.S. President Trump stated that he would make the United States the cryptocurrency capital of the world and proposed that Bitcoin held by the U.S. government would not be sold but would be held as a strategic reserve asset for the long term.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a digital currency taxation law, which stipulates that digital currency is property and is suitable for foreign trade payments. Mining and sales are exempt from value-added tax. Mining infrastructure operators need to report to the tax authorities and personal income tax is levied on physical income; Putin also emphasized at the forum that no one can ban Bitcoin and other electronic payment methods because they are new technologies and will continue to develop.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: Reorganizing the Web3 and encryption policy department. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party disbanded the existing Web3 project team and established a special department within the party's digital society promotion department, led by the former Secretary-General of the Web3 project team, but the responsibilities of the new department have not yet been clarified.

The South Korean State Council passed an executive order on the "Virtual Asset User Protection Act", which took effect on July 19, stipulating that virtual asset service providers must protect user deposits through banks and have the right to stop users' cash and virtual asset deposits and withdrawals based on reasonable reasons.

President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador has proposed leasing the country's volcanoes to miners for sustainable Bitcoin mining and using geothermal energy to reduce mining costs. Previously, the country has successfully used geothermal energy to dig out about $46 million worth of Bitcoin. Bitcoin.

Argentine President Javier Milei advocates separating cryptocurrencies from state control, criticizes central bank digital currencies, advocates private management of cryptocurrencies, and warns of government overextension.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced its support for the asset tokenization commercialization plan, convened financial institutions from many countries to conduct industry trials, and encouraged the development of industry standards to promote the commercialization and promotion of tokenized capital market products.

Suriname presidential candidate Maya Parbhoe promised that if she wins the election in 2025, she will make Bitcoin a legal currency and gradually replace the Surinamese dollar. She plans to dissolve the central bank, cut taxes, privatize public services, and use the transparency of Bitcoin to fight corruption, saying that Bitcoin Coins are key to rebuilding the country’s financial infrastructure.

Polish presidential candidate Sławomir Mentzen has promised to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected.

The various efforts and statements of these political figures indicate that Bitcoin will soon occupy a more important position in the future financial landscape. It is steadily entering the grand vision of the global economic system, like a shining star, attracting the attention of the political world.

Changes in regulatory trends: institutions are coming one after another

The crypto industry is entering a new era as the regulatory environment becomes more open and transparent in 2024. Under such a trend, the "coin-stock dual-repair" model has gradually become the new favorite of listed companies, and many companies have included Bitcoin in their strategic asset reserves. Among them, Tesla and MicroStrategy are the best among them. They have achieved "Diamond Victory" with their firm holding strategies. In just about a month, MSTR's stock price has shot up from around US$194 to nearly US$500, an increase of up to 150 US dollars. Around %; the two Bitcoin whales, Boyaa and Meitu, the "Gemini Stars" of the Hong Kong stock market, are tied for the top two, with the number of BTC held is as high as 2641 and 940; the first share of the crypto exchange Coinbase BTC The total profit is as high as 804 million, and the stock price's earnings multiple is about 7.88 times.

Such results have attracted more listed companies to follow suit. On November 19, Nano Labs Ltd (Nasdaq: NA) announced its intention to allocate part of its remaining cash flow to Bitcoin and hold it as a long-term strategic reserve asset ; on the same day, the US stock market listed company Genius Group Limited (GNS) announced Has spent US$10 million to buy 110 BTC, with an average price of US$90,932; LQR House, a niche e-commerce platform focusing on the spirits and beverage industry, a US listed company Inc. (LQR) announced that its board of directors has approved the purchase of $1 million worth of Bitcoin as part of its fund management strategy; on November 20, the board of directors of Acurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP), a US-listed biopharmaceutical company, approved the purchase of $1 million in Bitcoin as part of its fund management strategy. Reserve assets; on the same day, another US listed company, Hoth Therapeutics (HOTH), announced that the company’s board of directors approved the purchase of up to $1 million in Bitcoin... It can be seen that many listed companies have fully recognized BTC With its value storage function and stock price boosting effect, many have joined this "BTC strategic reserve competition."

Image source: HODL15Capital

BTC Ecology: Hiding in the cold winter, waiting for the flowers to bloom

The Bitcoin ecosystem is like an accelerated version of the currency circle. From the birth of the Ordinals protocol at the end of 2022, to the small climax of NFT in early 2023, and then to the short bear market in mid-2023, everyone was active in major spaces and imagined the future, and then BRC20 Detonating the second bull market climax. In the autumn of 2023, the market returned to silence, followed by the third climax in early 2024, and has been dormant and brewing ever since. In just two years, the entire currency circle has gone through the 342-year bull-bear cycle.

In the past year, Bitcoin’s market dominance has increased significantly, from 45.27% to 56.81%. Its spot ETF holdings have increased significantly, creating a new market with Bitcoin as the core asset, ETFs and US stocks as capital inflow channels, and US stock listed companies as carriers. has been fully opened, highlighting the need to develop its ecology and improve capital efficiency. In terms of Layer 2, 77 projects have taken action in the past three years. In the first half of 2024, driven by the ETF craze, the transaction volume and token prices of some old projects increased, and a variety of solutions emerged, with a total locked value of US$3 billion, which is expected to increase significantly in the future. increase. New implementation standards emerged at the Layer 1 implementation level, and activity grew steadily but the momentum did not continue. Among other infrastructures, bridging and WBTC are the mainstream in terms of interoperability, and more solutions are expected to be launched; in terms of security layer, interoperability may threaten asset security, and related security solutions such as Babylon's Bitcoin timestamp and pledge protocol have emerged. , and new technologies such as data availability layer (DA layer), such as Nubit, unlock the potential value of Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin ecosystem is still in a relatively disharmonious position. However, there has been significant improvement compared to last year. The Bitcoin ecosystem will never miss the raging bull market. There are still too many narratives waiting to be mined in the Bitcoin ecosystem. The dormancy and precipitation ahead have already accumulated enough strength. A large number of innovative projects are on the way.

Witness history: Bitcoin breaks 100,000 for the first time, where will it

go next?

At around 10:30 on December 5, the price of BTC once shot up to more than $100,000, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 5%. This also means that Bitcoin lived up to expectations and exceeded the $100,000 mark for the first time. At the same time, Ethereum exceeded 3,800 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 5.35%; SOL exceeded 230 USDT, and the 24-hour decrease narrowed to 2%.

Image source: OKX

The media effect caused by the price of Bitcoin exceeding 100,000 US dollars has successfully brought Crypto and decentralization into the mainstream public's vision. The public can't help but look back at its past. From its insignificance at the beginning of its birth to its proud standing today, its price climb is like a magnificent legend. It has been sixteen years since that iconic pizza day.

It gradually moves from the edge to the center. When Bitcoin first exceeded US$1, many people may not have expected that it would have such amazing potential in the future; and when it crossed important thresholds such as US$100 and US$1,000, the whole world turned its attention. Now that it has exceeded $100,000, it has pushed Bitcoin to a whole new level.

Finally, I wish Bitcoin can continue to write miracles, and I wish those of us who believe in Bitcoin can create miracles.