A brief analysis of the US Bitcoin strategic reserve: It is not lower than expected, and it has a great impact in the long run

TLNR:

1. The source of US strategic reserves is the confiscation of Bitcoin. The market has been prepared for a long time and is not lower than expected.

2. Considering that the United States is still enforcing the law, in the future, holding Bitcoin = in disguise to receive dividends from the United States to combat crypto crimes.

3. In the past 10 years, the United States has sold more than 200,000 Bitcoins in total. No longer selling is equivalent to soft locking, and the intensity is greater than expected.

4. The worst soft lock will be 4 years, and if it goes well, it will be 12 years.

5. Strategic reserves have a great positive impact on other countries and will gradually begin to follow suit.

The market should be prepared in advance for the United States to use the confiscated Bitcoin as its strategic reserve. After all, Trump made such a promise in Bitcoin 2024 at the earliest.

Secondly, just not buying is already a strong support. According to Grok3 statistics, from 2014 to last year, the United States has accumulated more than 200,000 Bitcoins, which are actually hidden selling pressure.

As strong as micro strategy, over the years of accumulation, it can only absorb 1/3 of the Bitcoin selling pressure enforced by the US.

Now these selling pressures will not flow to the market for at least 4 years. If Vance successfully takes over, it will be a 12-year hard lockout.

Although it is not as immediate as buying 100,000 bitcoins in the United States, you must know that the United States may continue to enforce the law later, and every time the bitcoins collected enter this reserve.

Over time, this is equivalent to a slow buyback.

As long as you are not the one who does evil, I believe 99% of people are not. If you hold Bitcoin, it is equivalent to sharing the dividends of the United States' combating crypto crime.

Because, every time you crack down on crypto crime, the proportion of Bitcoin in your hands is increasing slowly.

In addition, as Bitcoin in this strategic reserve continues to increase, we all know that positions determine the mind, and the United States will give more and more biases to Bitcoin.

At the same time, this has a decisive impact on the attitudes of other small countries. So in the next 1-2 years, we may see a country passing Bitcoin strategic reserves every once in a while, and it has the effect of Fomo, because the later the reserves are established, the higher the cost it faces.

I asked Grok3 to sort it out and these countries started to prepare quickly or slowly. With the US leader effect, these countries will advance much faster.

Stay safe and sound